Learn While You Earn: Two Approaches to Learning Auction Parameters in Take-it-or-leave-it Auctions

Much of the research in auction theory assumes that the auctioneer knows the distribution of participants ’ valuations with complete certainty. However, this is unrealistic. Thus, we analyse cases in which the auctioneer is uncertain about the valuation distributions; specifically, we consider a repeated auction setting in which the auctioneer can learn these distributions. Using take-it-or-leave-it auctions (Sandholm and Gilpin, 2006) as an exemplar auction format, we consider two auction design criteria. Firstly, an auctioneer could maximise expected revenue each time the auction is held. Secondly, an auctioneer could maximise the information gained in earlier auctions (as measured by the Kullback-Liebler divergence between its posterior and prior) to develop good estimates of the unknowns, which are later exploited to improve the revenue earned in the long-run. Simulation results comparing the two criteria indicate that setting offers to maximise revenue does not significantly detract from learning performance, but optimising offers for information gain substantially reduces expected revenue while not producing significantly better parameter estimates

Knapsack based Optimal Policies for Budget-Limited Multi-Armed Bandits

In budget-limited multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems, the learner's actions are costly and constrained by a fixed budget. Consequently, an optimal exploitation policy may not be to pull the optimal arm repeatedly, as is the case in other variants of MAB, but rather to pull the sequence of different arms that maximises the agent's total reward within the budget. This difference from existing MABs means that new approaches to maximising the total reward are required. Given this, we develop two pulling policies, namely: (i) KUBE; and (ii) fractional KUBE. Whereas the former provides better performance up to 40% in our experimental settings, the latter is computationally less expensive. We also prove logarithmic upper bounds for the regret of both policies, and show that these bounds are asymptotically optimal (i.e. they only differ from the best possible regret by a constant factor)

On the Existence of Pure Strategy Nash Equilibria in Integer-Splittable Weighted Congestion Games

We study the existence of pure strategy Nash equilibria (PSNE) in integer–splittable weighted congestion games (ISWCGs), where agents can strategically assign different amounts of demand to different resources, but must distribute this demand in fixed-size parts. Such scenarios arise in a wide range of application domains, including job scheduling and network routing, where agents have to allocate multiple tasks and can assign a number of tasks to a particular selected resource. Specifically, in an ISWCG, an agent has a certain total demand (aka weight) that it needs to satisfy, and can do so by requesting one or more integer units of each resource from an element of a given collection of feasible subsets. Each resource is associated with a unit–cost function of its level of congestion; as such, the cost to an agent for using a particular resource is the product of the resource unit–cost and the number of units the agent requests.While general ISWCGs do not admit PSNE [(Rosenthal, 1973b)], the restricted subclass of these games with linear unit–cost functions has been shown to possess a potential function [(Meyers, 2006)], and hence, PSNE. However, the linearity of costs may not be necessary for the existence of equilibria in pure strategies. Thus, in this paper we prove that PSNE always exist for a larger class of convex and monotonically increasing unit–costs. On the other hand, our result is accompanied by a limiting assumption on the structure of agents’ strategy sets: specifically, each agent is associated with its set of accessible resources, and can distribute its demand across any subset of these resources.Importantly, we show that neither monotonicity nor convexity on its own guarantees this result. Moreover, we give a counterexample with monotone and semi–convex cost functions, thus distinguishing ISWCGs from the class of infinitely–splittable congestion games for which the conditions of monotonicity and semi–convexity have been shown to be sufficient for PSNE existence [(Rosen, 1965)]. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the finite improvement path property (FIP) does not hold for convex increasing ISWCGs. Thus, in contrast to the case with linear costs, a potential function argument cannot be used to prove our result. Instead, we provide a procedure that converges to an equilibrium from an arbitrary initial strategy profile, and in doing so show that ISWCGs with convex increasing unit–cost functions are weakly acyclic

Experimental human hookworm infection: a narrative historical review

In 1896, a serendipitous laboratory accident led to the understanding that hookworms propagate infection by penetrating skin, a theory that was then confirmed with the first experimental human infection, reported in 1901. Experimental human infections undertaken in the 20th century enabled understanding of the natural history of infection and the immune response. More recently, experimental hookworm infection has been performed to investigate the immunomodulatory potential of hookworm infection and for the evaluation of hookworm vaccines and chemotherapeutic interventions. Experimental human hookworm infection has been proven to be safe, with no deaths observed in over 500 participants (although early reports predate systematic adverse event reporting) and no serious adverse events described in over 200 participants enrolled in contemporary clinical trials. While experimental human hookworm infection holds significant promise, as both a challenge model for testing anti-hookworm therapies and for treating various diseases of modernity, there are many challenges that present. These challenges include preparation and storage of larvae, which has not significantly changed since Harada and Mori first described their coproculture method in 1955. In vitro methods of hookworm larval culture, storage, and the development of meaningful potency or release assays are required. Surrogate markers of intestinal infection intensity are required because faecal egg counts or hookworm faecal DNA intensity lack the fidelity required for exploration of hookworm infection as a vaccine/drug testing platform or as a regulated therapy

Convergent learning algorithms for potential games with unknown noisy rewards

In this paper, we address the problem of convergence to Nash equilibria in games with rewards that are initially unknown and which must be estimated over time from noisy observations. These games arise in many real-world applications, whenever rewards for actions cannot be prespecified and must be learned on-line. Standard results in game theory, however, do not consider such settings. Specifically, using results from stochastic approximation and differential inclusions, we prove the convergence of variants of fictitious play and adaptive play to Nash equilibria in potential games and weakly acyclic games, respectively. These variants all use a multi-agent version of Q-learning to estimate the reward functions and a novel form of the e-greedy decision rule to select an action. Furthermore, we derive e-greedy decision rules that exploit the sparse interaction structure encoded in two compact graphical representations of games, known as graphical and hypergraphical normal form, to improve the convergence rate of the learning algorithms. The structure captured in these representations naturally occurs in many distributed optimisation and control applications. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithms in a simulated ad hoc wireless sensor network management problem

Predictors of treatment outcomes in geriatric patients with odontoid fractures: AOSpine North America multi-centre prospective GOF study.

STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter prospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: To identify patient and treatment characteristics associated with treatment success or failure in the management of odontoid fractures. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Odontoid fractures are the most common cervical spine fractures in the elderly and represent a significant management challenge with widely divergent views regarding operative versus nonoperative management. METHODS: A total of 159 patients 65 years and older with radiographically confirmed type II odontoid fractures were enrolled at 10 sites in the United States and 1 site in Canada between January 2006 and May 2009. Subjects were followed at 6 and 12 months post-initial treatment with Neck Disability Index and SF-36v2 scores. Final treatment outcome was classified as failure or success. Treatment failure was defined as death by any cause, decline in Neck Disability Index by more than 9.5 absolute points, or occurrence of a major treatment-related complication. Baseline characteristics between the groups were compared using t test for the continuous variables and χ2 test for the categorical variables. Baseline characteristics associated with treatment outcomes were identified by multiple logistic stepwise regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 101 (63.5%) patients were treated surgically and 58 (36.5%) conservatively. Forty-four (27.7%) patients had a successful outcome and 86 (54.1%) had a treatment failure; for 29 patients (18.2%), treatment status could not be determined (3 withdrew; 26 were lost to follow-up). Twenty-nine (18.2%) patients expired before the 12-month follow-up. Follow-up information was available for 103 of 127 surviving (81.1%) patients. Twelve-month SF-36v2 scores were worse in the failure group. The characteristics associated with treatment failure were older age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.08 for each year of age); initial nonsurgical treatment (OR = 3.09); male sex (OR = 4.33), and baseline neurological system comorbidity (OR = 4.13). CONCLUSION: Older age, initial nonsurgical treatment, and male sex are associated with failure of treatment in patients with geriatric odontoid fractures

Does the Spine Surgeon’s Experience Affect Fracture Classification, Assessment of Stability, and Treatment Plan in Thoracolumbar Injuries?

Study Design: Prospective survey-based study. Objectives: The AO Spine thoracolumbar injury classification has been shown to have good reproducibility among clinicians. However, the influence of spine surgeons’ clinical experience on fracture classification, stability assessment, and decision on management based on this classification has not been studied. Furthermore, the usefulness of varying imaging modalities including radiographs, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the decision process was also studied. Methods: Forty-one spine surgeons from different regions, acquainted with the AOSpine classification system, were provided with 30 thoracolumbar fractures in a 3-step assessment: first radiographs, followed by CT and MRI. Surgeons classified the fracture, evaluated stability, chose management, and identified reasons for any changes. The surgeons were divided into 2 groups based on years of clinical experience as \u3c10 years (n = 12) and \u3e10 years (n = 29). Results: There were no significant differences between the 2 groups in correctly classifying A1, B2, and C type fractures. Surgeons with less experience hadmore correct diagnosis in classifyingA3 (47.2% vs 38.5%in step 1, 73.6% vs 60.3% in step 2 and 77.8% vs 65.5% in step 3), A4 (16.7% vs 24.1% in step 1, 72.9% vs 57.8% in step 2 and 70.8% vs 56.0%in step3) and B1 injuries (31.9% vs 20.7% in step 1, 41.7% vs 36.8% in step 2 and 38.9% vs 33.9% in step 3). In the assessment of fracture stability and decision on treatment, the less and more experienced surgeons performed equally. The selection of a particular treatment plan varied in all subtypes except in A1 and C type injuries. Conclusion: Surgeons’ experience did not significantly affect overall fracture classification, evaluating stability and planning the treatment. Surgeons with less experience had a higher percentage of correct classification in A3 and A4 injuries. Despite variations between them in classification, the assessment of overall stability and management decisions were similar between the 2 groups. © The Author(s) 2017

The Development of a Universally Accepted Sacral Fracture Classification: A Survey of AOSpine and AOTrauma Members.

Study Design Survey study. Objective To determine the global perspective on controversial aspects of sacral fracture classifications. Methods While developing the AOSpine Sacral Injury Classification System, a survey was sent to all members of AOSpine and AOTrauma. The survey asked four yes-or-no questions to help determine the best way to handle controversial aspects of sacral fractures in future classifications. Chi-square tests were initially used to compare surgeons\u27 answers to the four key questions of the survey, and then the data was modeled through multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results A total of 474 surgeons answered all questions in the survey. Overall 86.9% of respondents felt that the proposed hierarchical nature of injuries was appropriate, and 77.8% of respondents agreed that that the risk of neurologic injury is highest in a vertical fracture through the foramen. Almost 80% of respondents felt that the separation of injuries based on the integrity of L5-S1 facet was appropriate, and 83.8% of surgeons agreed that a nondisplaced sacral U fracture is a clinically relevant entity. Conclusion This study determines the global perspective on controversial areas in the injury patterns of sacral fractures and demonstrates that the development of a comprehensive and universally accepted sacral classification is possible

AOSpine—Spine Trauma Classification System: The Value of Modifiers: A Narrative Review With Commentary on Evolving Descriptive Principles

Study Design: Narrative review. Objectives: To describe the current AOSpine Trauma Classification system for spinal trauma and highlight the value of patient-specific modifiers for facilitating communication and nuances in treatment. Methods: The classification for spine trauma previously developed by The AOSpine Knowledge Forum is reviewed and the importance of case modifiers in this system is discussed. Results: A successful classification system facilitates communication and agreement between physicians while also determining injury severity and provides guidance on prognosis and treatment. As each injury may be unique among different patients, the importance of considering patient-specific characteristics is highlighted in this review. In the current AOSpine Trauma Classification, the spinal column is divided into 4 regions: the upper cervical spine (C0-C2), subaxial cervical spine (C3-C7), thoracolumbar spine (T1-L5), and the sacral spine (S1-S5, including coccyx). Each region is classified according to a hierarchical system with increasing levels of injury or instability and represents the morphology of the injury, neurologic status, and clinical modifiers. Specifically, these clinical modifiers are denoted starting with M followed by a number. They describe unique conditions that may change treatment approach such as the presence of significant soft tissue damage, uncertainty about posterior tension band injury, or the presence of a critical disc herniation in a cervical bilateral facet dislocation. These characteristics are described in detail for each spinal region. Conclusions: Patient-specific modifiers in the AOSpine Trauma Classification highlight unique clinical characteristics for each injury and facilitate communication and treatment between surgeons