Sit down at the ball game: how trade barriers make the world less food secure

This paper analyses the impacts of trade policy responses to rising world food prices by carrying out a series of stylised experiments in the wheat market using a world trade model, GTAP. The sequence of events that is modelled comprises a negative wheat supply shock and subsequent implementation of an export tax by a major net exporter and a reduction in import tariffs by a small importer. The effects of trade policy responses are contrasted with those of full liberalisation of the wheat market. At the core are the (opposite) effects on producers and consumers, as well as the terms-of-trade and trade tax revenue effects. Food security is shown to depend crucially on changes in prices but also in incomes that are associated with changes in factor returns. The results reveal that major net exporters are generally better off when implementing export taxes for food security purposes. Large exporting countries export price instability causing world food prices to rise further. Net importing countries lose out and have limited leeway to reduce tariffs or subsidise imports. Liberalising wheat trade mitigates rising prices and contributes to food security, but to the detriment of production in Africa and Asia, making them more dependent on and vulnerable to changes in the world market. Concerted action at the WTO forum is required, notably clarifying and sharpening the rules regarding export measures.food security; world food crisis; international grain trade; trade measures; trade liberalisation; CGE modelling

Changes in the Northern Limit of Spruce at Dubawnt Lake, Northwest Territories

Larsen described the treeline west of Hudson Bay and particularly at Ennadi, Yathkyed and Dubawnt Lakes, as clumps of spruce, relict from a former more northerly distribution. ... Evidence collected by us in 1966 on the Dubawnt River system on the Mackenzie-Keewatin border, indicates that the spruce trees are re-establishing themselves and have moved northward and closer to Dubawnt Lake during the past one hundred years. ... Larsen's view that spruce has not re-establsihed itself during the last half century does not apply at Dubawnt Lake, but may be true at the Ennadai and Yathkyed Lake regions. ... The known changes in the treeline in the Dubawnt Lake area can be summarized as follows: the south arm of the Keewatin Glacier left the lake area possibly from 7.5 to 7.9 thousands of years before the present or as late as 5.5 thousand years ago. By 4 thousand years ago, a closed canopy forest extended half way up the east shore of Lake Dubawnt, leaving fossil podzols. Individual clumps and trees probably extended further north. A southern retraction of treeline followed, but a re-extension took place c. A.D. 1100 at the "little climatic optimum". A southern retraction again occurred and by 1770 Hearne recorded dead stumps 20 miles north of the treeline. Around 1870, satisfactory growth conditions existed within 2 miles of the south end of Dubawnt Lake and a minor northward extension took place. Re-establishment of spruce by means other than layering occurred by 1931. Less favourable growth conditions may have begun again in 1960

Particle trapping in a stratified flood-dominated estuary

Observations in the Navesink River estuary in northern New Jersey demonstrate that buoyancy augments the particle trapping tendencies of flood-dominated systems because these estuaries heighten tidal period asymmetries in stratification. During the long and slow ebb which typifies flood-dominated systems, a positive feedback between tidal straining and weak vertical mixing stratifies the estuary. In contrast, during flood, turbulence generated by the stronger tidal currents augments overstraining of the density field and the water column becomes well mixed. The tidal period asymmetries in stratification have profound effects on the vertical structure and transport of suspended matter. During ebb, weak vertical mixing allows suspended material to settle downward. In contrast, strong turbulence during flood mixes suspended matter into the water column where it is transported up estuary. Furthermore, observations reveal that resuspension events are marked by multiple turbidity spikes, suggestive of multiple, limited layers of erodible material. The transport of the turbid waters is consistent with horizontal advection modified by horizontal dispersion. Periods of enhanced stratification are also marked by relatively low levels of turbidity during the ebb, consistent with more complete settling of suspended material following times of high river discharge. The interplay between buoyancy and tidal asymmetries are further elucidated with a onedimensional numerical model featuring a turbulent closure scheme and a passively settling tracer. Model results are generally consistent with the field observations, both emphasizing the robust particle trapping tendencies of a stratified flood-dominated estuary. We speculate that enhanced particle trapping following times of high river discharge may have important biological consequences

A systematic review of mortality in schizophrenia - Is the differential mortality gap worsening over time?

Context Despite improvements in mental health services in recent decades, it is unclear whether the risk of mortality in schizophrenia has changed over time. Objective To explore the distribution of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for people with schizophrenia. Data Sources Broad search terms were used in MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Web of Science, and Google Scholar to identify all studies that investigated mortality in schizophrenia, published between January 1, 1980, and January 31, 2006. References were also identified from review articles, reference lists, and communication with authors. Study Selection Population-based studies that reported primary data on deaths in people with schizophrenia. Data Extraction Operationalized criteria were used to extract key study features and mortality data. Data Synthesis We examined the distribution of SMRs and pooled selected estimates using random-effects meta-analysis. We identified 37 articles drawn from 25 different nations. The median SMR for all persons for all-cause mortality was 2.58 (10%-90% quantile, 1.18-5.76), with a corresponding random-effects pooled SMR of 2.50 (95% confidence interval, 2.18-2.43). No sex difference was detected. Suicide was associated with the highest SMR (12.86); however, most of the major causes-of-death categories were found to be elevated in people with schizophrenia. The SMRs for all-cause mortality have increased during recent decades (P = .03). Conclusions With respect to mortality, a substantial gap exists between the health of people with schizophrenia and the general community. This differential mortality gap has worsened in recent decades. In light of the potential for second-generation antipsychotic medications to further adversely influence mortality rates in the decades to come, optimizing the general health of people with schizophrenia warrants urgent attention

Tidal and spring-neap variations in horizontal dispersion in a partially mixed estuary

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C07023, doi:10.1029/2007JC004644.A sequence of dye releases in the Hudson River estuary provide a quantitative assessment of horizontal dispersion in a partially mixed estuary. Dye was released in the bottom boundary layer on 4 separate occasions, with varying tidal phase and spring-neap conditions. The three-dimensional distribution of dye was monitored by two vessels with in situ, profiling fluorometers. The three-dimensional spreading of the dye was estimated by calculating the time derivative of the second moment of the dye in the along-estuary, cross-estuary and vertical directions. The average along-estuary dispersion rate was about 100 m2/s, but maximum rates up to 700 m2/s occurred during ebb tides, and minimum rates occurred during flood. Vertical shear dispersion was the principal mechanism during neap tides, but transverse shear dispersion became more important during springs. Suppression of mixing across the pycnocline limited the vertical extent of the patch in all but the maximum spring-tide conditions, with vertical diffusivities in the pycnocline estimated at 4 × 10−5 m2/s during neaps. The limited vertical extent of the dye patch limited the dispersion of the dye relative to the overall estuarine dispersion rate, which was an order of magnitude greater than that of the dye. This study indicates that the effective dispersion of waterborne material in an estuary depends sensitively on its vertical distribution as well as the phase of the spring-neap cycle.This research was supported by National Science Foundation Grant OCE04-52054 (W. Geyer), OCE00-99310 (R. Houghton), and OCE00-95913 (R. Chant)

Salt flux into coastal river plumes: Dye studies in the Delaware and Hudson River outflows

The results of ten dye tracer experiments conducted in 2003–2006 to study the dispersion of the outflow of the Delaware and Hudson Rivers are presented. A fluorescent dye tracer was used to track the river plume and to measure directly the salt flux into the plume. A variety of flow regimes were encountered. During strong upwelling events, a salt flux of ∼3 ÷ 10–4 kg m s–1 at the leading edge of the plume implies a vertical diffusivity of Kz ∼ 3 × 10–4 m–2 s–1. Comparable salt flux was measured at the leading edge of a buoyancy-driven coastal current with Kz ∼ 6.3 × 10–4 m–2 s–1. For weaker wind events Kz was ≤10–4 m–2 s–1. Using a gradient Richardson number (Ri), these observations were replicated by a 1-D model of vertical salt flux to within a factor of 2. Upwelling events are the most efficient mechanism for dispersing the river plume water over the coastal shelf because the plume\u27s offshore displacement is combined with a horizontal diffusivity measured to be ∼150 m–2 s–1 over the two-day period of each experiment

Patterns of bud-site selection in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Abstract. Cells of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae select bud sites in either of two,distinct spatial patterns, known as axial (expressed by a and t ~ cells) and bipolar (expressed by a/or cells). Fluorescence, timelapse, and scanning electron microscopy have been used to obtain more precise descriptions of these patterns. From these descriptions, we conclude that in the axial pattern, the new bud forms directly adjacent to the division site in daughter cells and directly adjacent to the immediately preceding division site (bud site) in mother cells, with little influence from earlier sites. Thus, the division site appears to be marked by a spatial signal(s) that specifies the location of the new bud site and is transient in that it only lasts from one budding event to the next. Consistent with this conclusion

Linkage between lateral circulation and near-surface vertical mixing in a coastal plain estuary

Microstructure and current velocity measurements were collected at a cross-channel transect in the James River under spring and neap tidal conditions in May 2010 to study cross-estuary variations in vertical mixing. Results showed that near-surface mixing was related to lateral circulation during the ebb phase of a tidal cycle, and that the linkage was somewhat similar from neap to spring tides. During neap tides, near-surface mixing was generated by the straining of lateral density gradients influenced by the advection of fresh, riverine water on the right side (looking seaward) of the transect. Spring tide results revealed similar findings on the right side of the cross section. However, on the left side, the straining by velocity shears acted in concert with density straining. Weak along-estuary velocities over the left shoal were connected to faster velocities in the channel via a clockwise lateral circulation (looking seaward). These results provided evidence that in the absence of direct wind forcing, near-surface vertical mixing can occur from mechanisms uncoupled from bottom friction

Effects of locally generated wind waves on the momentum budget and subtidal exchange in a coastal plain estuary

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 124(2), (2019):1005-1028, doi:10.1029/2018JC014585.A numerical model with a vortex force formalism is used to study the role of wind waves in the momentum budget and subtidal exchange of a shallow coastal plain estuary, Delaware Bay. Wave height and age in the bay have a spatial distribution that is controlled by bathymetry and fetch, with implications for the surface drag coefficient in young, underdeveloped seas. Inclusion of waves in the model leads to increases in the surface drag coefficient by up to 30% with respect to parameterizations in which surface drag is only a function of wind speed, in agreement with recent observations of air‐sea fluxes in estuaries. The model was modified to prevent whitecapping wave dissipation from generating breaking forces since that contribution is integrally equivalent to the wind stress. The proposed adjustment is consistent with previous studies of wave‐induced nearshore currents and with additional parameterizations for breaking forces in the model. The mean momentum balance during a simulated wind event was mainly between the pressure gradient force and surface stress, with negligible contributions by vortex, wave breaking (i.e., depth‐induced), and Stokes‐Coriolis forces. Modeled scenarios with realistic Delaware bathymetry suggest that the subtidal bay‐ocean exchange at storm time scales is sensitive to wave‐induced surface drag coefficient, wind direction, and mass transport due to the Stokes drift. Results herein are applicable to shallow coastal systems where the typical wave field is young (i.e., wind seas) and modulated by bathymetry.This work was supported by National Science Foundation Coastal SEES grant 1325136. We acknowledge Christopher Sommerfield's Group, Jia‐Lin Chen, and Julia Levin who provided assistance with the model configuration. We also thank Nirnimesh Kumar, Greg Gerbi, Melissa Moulton, and the Rutgers Ocean Modeling group for constructive feedback. Insightful comments by two anonymous reviewers helped improve the manuscript. Model files are available in an open access repository (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1695900).2019-07-2