Computing price trends in sequential auctions

This paper compares various methods used for measuring price trends in sequential auctions and draws on index number theory. Data from wine auctions are used to show that different methods applied to the same data may lead to significantly différent conclusions. Moreover the same method can even lead to opposite results depending on the way pairs are selected within the set of similar objects sold sequentially. Finally, the number of identical objects being sold also influences the price trend.Sequential auctions, Price aggregation, Price indices

Why are some coalitions more successful than others in setting standards? Empirical evidence from the Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD standard war

Standard-setting coalitions are increasingly composed of rival firms from different sectors and are characterized by simultaneous and/or sequential cooperation and competition among their members. This paper examines why firms choose to belong to two standard-setting coalitions instead of one and what determines the success of a standard coalition. We test empirically for network effect, experience effect, and coopetitive effect in the Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD standard war. We find that the higher the similarity of the members in the coalition, the greater the probability of standard coalition success. Furthermore, relatedness leads to a greater probability of joining both competing coalitions, but at a given degree of knowledge difference, an opposite effect exists.Blu-ray; HD-DVD; coalition; coopetition; standard war

Transport, health and climate change: Deciding on the optimal policy

Transport generates many externalities, some related to atmospheric pollution. In this paper, we focus on two: greenhouse gases, and local pollution. In the search for optimal transport policies, these two externalities have usually been analysed separately. Here, we study them jointly, in a sequential decision-making model. Our model allows for the irreversibility of the policies undertaken, as well as the possibility of a progressive reduction of uncertainties with the arrival of information. We find that when both sources of externalities are analysed jointly, structural measures enabling private transport requirements to be reduced are identified as being more advantageous economically than technological measures to reduce emissions of pollutants. We illustrate the usefulness of a joint analysis of externalities with two examples: tax measures on cars and housing policy.climate change; model of decision-making under uncertainty; irreversibilities; transport policy

Valuing life: experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events

Global environmental phenomena like climate change, major extinction events or flutype pandemics can have catastrophic consequences. By properly assessing the outcomes involved - especially those concerning human life - economic theory of choice under uncertainty is expected to help people take the best decision. However, the widely used expected utility theory values life in terms of the low probability of death someone would be willing to accept in order to receive extra payment. Common sense and experimental evidence refute this way of valuing life, and here we provide experimental evidence of people's unwillingness to accept a low probability of death, contrary to expected utility predictions. This work uses new axioms of choice, especially an axiom that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and the choice criterion that they imply. The implied decision criteria are a combination of expected utility with extreme responses, and seem more consistent with observations

Monetary Values for Air Pollution Risk of Death: A Contingent Valuation Survey

In this paper, we extend the individual dynamic model of life-time resource allocation to assess the monetary value given to the increase in survival probabilities of every member of a household induced by improved air quality. We then interpret this monetary value as a flow of Value of Life Years Lost (VOLY), and estimate the corresponding Value of a Prevented Fatality (VPF) for different ages and different household members. Using French contingent valuation data on air pollution, we estimate a mean VOLY of Euros 150,000 and a mean VPFof Euros 2.15 million. In addition, we find an inverse U-shaped relationship between age and VPF

Get paid more, work more? Lessons from French physicians' labour supply responses to hypothetic fee increases

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the General Practitioners' (GPs) labour supply, specifically focusing on the physicians' labour supply responses to higher compensations. This analysis is mainly aimed at challenging the reality of a ‘backward bending' form for the labour supply of GPs. Because GPs' fees only evolve very slowly and are mainly fixed by the National Health Insurance Fund, we designed a contingent valuation survey in which hypothetical fee increases are randomly submitted to GPs. Empirical evidence from 1,400 French GPs supports the hypothesis of a negative slope for the GPs' labour supply curve. Therefore, increasing the supply of physicians' services through an increase in fees is not a feasible policy.General practitioners; contingent valuation; price of leisure; labour supply; backward bending curve

A TEST OF CHEAP TALK IN DIFFERENT HYPOTHETICAL CONTEXTS: THE CASE OF AIR POLLUTION

We explore the influence of a neutral cheap talk script in three typical scenarios used in the CV literature devoted to the valuation of air pollution effects. We show that cheap talk has a differentiated effect depending on the scenario implemented. It decreases protest responses with no effect on WTP values in the scenario based on a new drug. When a move to a less polluted city is involved, it has no effect on protest responses but decreases WTP values. Surprisingly, cheap talk increases protest responses but decreases WTP values when new regional air pollution regulations are at stake.Willingness to pay ; contingent valuation ; cheap talk ; context ; field experiment ; air pollution

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic : swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1)

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.France, experiment, interactive, information, vaccination, influenza A (H1N1), attitudes.

The Declining Price Effect in Sequential Auctions: What Theory Does Not Predict

This paper studies different explanations given for the "price decline anomaly" in sequential auctions, a phenomenon also known as the "afternoon effect". It surveys the dedicated theoretical models and then explores the influence of the institutional or market characteristics (of the sale) on the price trend. Next , it presents different methods used for measuring price trends and analytically identifies the differences between them. Finally, data from wine auctions are used to show that different methods may lead to opposite trends from the same data and that the number of identical objects being sold influences the price trend.multiple unit auctions; price decline; index Numbers; bootstrap simulations

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic: swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1)

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.France; experiment; interactive; information; vaccination; influenza A (H1N1); attitudes