Lightning prediction for Australia using multivariate analyses of large-scale atmospheric variables

Lightning is a natural hazard that can lead to the ignition of wildfires, disruption and damage to power and telecommunication infrastructures, human and livestock injuries and fatalities, and disruption to airport activities. This paper examines the ability of six statistical and machine-learning classification techniques to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days at the coarse spatial and temporal scales of current general circulation models and reanalyses. The classification techniques considered were: a combination of principal component analysis and logistic regression; classification and regression trees; random forests; linear discriminant analysis; quadratic discriminant analysis; and logistic regression. Lightning flash count observations at six locations across Australia for the period 2004 to 2013 were used, together with atmospheric variables from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Ten-fold cross validation was used to evaluate classification performance. It was found that logistic regression was superior to the other classifiers considered, and that its prediction skill is much better than climatology. The sets of atmospheric variables included in the final logistic regression models were primarily composed of spatial mean measures of instability and lifting potential, and atmospheric water content. However, the memberships of these sets varied between climatic zones

Classification of Australian Thunderstorms using Multivariate Analyses of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variables

Lightning accompanied by inconsequential rainfall (i.e., “dry” lightning) is the primary natural ignition source for wildfires globally. This paper presents a machine-learning and statistical-classification analysis of dry and “wet” thunderstorm days in relation to associated atmospheric conditions. The study is based on daily data for lightning-flash count and precipitation from ground-based sensors and gauges and a comprehensive set of atmospheric variables that are based on ERA-Interim for the period from 2004 to 2013 at six locations in Australia. These locations represent a wide range of climatic zones (temperate, subtropical, and tropical). Quadratic surface representations and low-dimensional summary statistics were used to characterize the main features of the atmospheric fields. Four prediction skill scores were considered, and 10-fold cross validation was used to evaluate the performance of each classifier. The results were compared with those obtained by adopting the approach used in an earlier study for the U.S. Pacific Northwest. It was found that both approaches have prediction skill when tested against independent data, that mean atmospheric field quantities proved to be the most influential variables in determining dry-lightning activity, and that no single classifier or set of atmospheric variables proved to be consistently superior to its counterpart for the six sites examined here

Estimating trends and seasonality in Australian monthly lightning flash counts

We present the results of a statistical analysis of lightning characteristics in mainland Australia for the period from approximately 1988 to 2012, based on monthly lightning flash count (LFC) series obtained from a network of 19 Comité Internationale des Grands Réseaux Electriques, 500 Hz peak transmission filter circuit sensors. The temporal structures of the series are examined in terms of detecting and characterizing seasonal cycles, long-term trends, and changes in seasonality over time. A generalized additive modeling approach is used to ensure that the estimated structures are determined by the data, rather than by the constraints of any assumed mathematical form for the trends and seasonal cycle. Results indicate strong seasonality at all sites, the presence of long-term trends at 16 sites, and interactions between trend and seasonality (corresponding to changes in seasonality over time) at 13 sites. The most systematic change corresponds to a progressive deepening of the seasonal cycle (i.e., an ongoing decline in winter lightning flash counts) and is most noticeable across southern Australia (south of 30°S). These results are consistent with previous analyses that have detected decreasing atmospheric instability during the austral winter since the mid-1970s. This is associated with increasing mean sea level pressure and declining rainfall

Avatars of Eurocentrism in the critique of the liberal peace

Recent scholarly critiques of the so-called liberal peace raise important political and ethical challenges to practices of postwar intervention in the global South. However, their conceptual and analytic approaches have tended to reproduce rather than challenge the intellectual Eurocentrism underpinning the liberal peace. Eurocentric features of the critiques include the methodological bypassing of target subjects in research, the analytic bypassing of subjects through frameworks of governmentality, the assumed ontological split between the ‘liberal’ and the ‘local’, and a nostalgia for the liberal subject and the liberal social contract as alternative bases for politics. These collectively produce a ‘paradox of liberalism’ that sees the liberal peace as oppressive but also the only true source of emancipation. However, the article suggests that a repoliticization of colonial difference offers an alternative ‘decolonizing’ approach to critical analysis through repositioning the analytic gaze. Three alternative research strategies for critical analysis are briefly developed

Menstrual cycle phase does not predict political conservatism

Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception); political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations” questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought

Unexpected drop of dynamical heterogeneities in colloidal suspensions approaching the jamming transition

As the glass (in molecular fluids\cite{Donth}) or the jamming (in colloids and grains\cite{LiuNature1998}) transitions are approached, the dynamics slow down dramatically with no marked structural changes. Dynamical heterogeneity (DH) plays a crucial role: structural relaxation occurs through correlated rearrangements of particle ``blobs'' of size $\xi$\cite{WeeksScience2000,DauchotPRL2005,Glotzer,Ediger}. On approaching these transitions, $\xi$ grows in glass-formers\cite{Glotzer,Ediger}, colloids\cite{WeeksScience2000,BerthierScience2005}, and driven granular materials\cite{KeysNaturePhys2007} alike, strengthening the analogies between the glass and the jamming transitions. However, little is known yet on the behavior of DH very close to dynamical arrest. Here, we measure in colloids the maximum of a ``dynamical susceptibility'', $\chi^*$, whose growth is usually associated to that of $\xi$\cite{LacevicPRE}. $\chi^*$ initially increases with volume fraction $\phi$, as in\cite{KeysNaturePhys2007}, but strikingly drops dramatically very close to jamming. We show that this unexpected behavior results from the competition between the growth of $\xi$ and the reduced particle displacements associated with rearrangements in very dense suspensions, unveiling a richer-than-expected scenario.Comment: 1st version originally submitted to Nature Physics. See the Nature Physics website fro the final, published versio

Impact of shortened crop rotation of oilseed rape on soil and rhizosphere microbial diversity in relation to yield decline

Oilseed rape (OSR) grown in monoculture shows a decline in yield relative to virgin OSR of up to 25%, but the mechanisms responsible are unknown. A long term field experiment of OSR grown in a range of rotations with wheat was used to determine whether shifts in fungal and bacterial populations of the rhizosphere and bulk soil were associated with the development of OSR yield decline. The communities of fungi and bacteria in the rhizosphere and bulk soil from the field experiment were profiled using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP) and sequencing of cloned internal transcribed spacer regions and 16S rRNA genes, respectively. OSR cropping frequency had no effect on rhizosphere bacterial communities. However, the rhizosphere fungal communities from continuously grown OSR were significantly different to those from other rotations. This was due primarily to an increase in abundance of two fungi which showed 100% and 95% DNA identity to the plant pathogens Olpidium brassicae and Pyrenochaeta lycopersici, respectively. Real-time PCR confirmed that there was significantly more of these fungi in the continuously grown OSR than the other rotations. These two fungi were isolated from the field and used to inoculate OSR and Brassica oleracea grown under controlled conditions in a glasshouse to determine their effect on yield. At high doses, Olpidium brassicae reduced top growth and root biomass in seedlings and reduced branching and subsequent pod and seed production. Pyrenochaeta sp. formed lesions on the roots of seedlings, and at high doses delayed flowering and had a negative impact on seed quantity and quality

Etiology of Severe Non-malaria Febrile Illness in Northern Tanzania: A Prospective Cohort Study.

The syndrome of fever is a commonly presenting complaint among persons seeking healthcare in low-resource areas, yet the public health community has not approached fever in a comprehensive manner. In many areas, malaria is over-diagnosed, and patients without malaria have poor outcomes. We prospectively studied a cohort of 870 pediatric and adult febrile admissions to two hospitals in northern Tanzania over the period of one year using conventional standard diagnostic tests to establish fever etiology. Malaria was the clinical diagnosis for 528 (60.7%), but was the actual cause of fever in only 14 (1.6%). By contrast, bacterial, mycobacterial, and fungal bloodstream infections accounted for 85 (9.8%), 14 (1.6%), and 25 (2.9%) febrile admissions, respectively. Acute bacterial zoonoses were identified among 118 (26.2%) of febrile admissions; 16 (13.6%) had brucellosis, 40 (33.9%) leptospirosis, 24 (20.3%) had Q fever, 36 (30.5%) had spotted fever group rickettsioses, and 2 (1.8%) had typhus group rickettsioses. In addition, 55 (7.9%) participants had a confirmed acute arbovirus infection, all due to chikungunya. No patient had a bacterial zoonosis or an arbovirus infection included in the admission differential diagnosis. Malaria was uncommon and over-diagnosed, whereas invasive infections were underappreciated. Bacterial zoonoses and arbovirus infections were highly prevalent yet overlooked. An integrated approach to the syndrome of fever in resource-limited areas is needed to improve patient outcomes and to rationally target disease control efforts

Influence of resource availability on the foraging strategies of the triangle butterflyfish chaetodon triangulum in the Maldives.

Obligate coral feeders such as many members of the Chaetodontidae family (also known as butterflyfish) often show strong preferences for particular coral species. This is thought to have evolved through natural selection as an energy-maximising strategy. Although some species remain as highly specialised feeders throughout their lifetime, many corallivores show a degree of dietary versatility when food abundance is limited; a strategy described by the optimal foraging theory. This study aimed to examine if, within-reef differences in the feeding regime and territory size of the Triangle Butterflyfish Chaetodon triangulum occurred, as a function of resource availability. Results showed that the dietary specialisation of C. triangulum was significant in both areas of low and high coral cover (χL22 = 2.52 x 102, P<0.001 and χL22 = 3.78 x 102, P<0.001 respectively). Resource selection functions (RSFs), calculated for the two main sites of contrasting coral assemblage, showed that in the resource-rich environments, only two Genera (Acropora and Pocillopora) were preferentially selected for, with the majority of other corals being actively ‘avoided’. Conversely, in territories of lower coral coverage, C. triangulum was being less selective in its prey choice and consuming corals in a more even distribution with respect to their availability. Interestingly, coral cover appeared to show no significant effect on feeding rate, however it was a primary determinant of territory size. The findings of the study agree with the predictions of the optimal foraging theory, in that where food supply is scarce, dietary specialisation is minimised and territory size increased. This results in maximising energy intake. This study represents the first scientific evidence that C. triangulum is an obligate corallivore and, as with many other butterflyfish, is therefore dependent on healthy scleractinian corals for survival.N