Reconciling model-X and doubly robust approaches to conditional independence testing

Model-X approaches to testing conditional independence between a predictor and an outcome variable given a vector of covariates usually assume exact knowledge of the conditional distribution of the predictor given the covariates. Nevertheless, model-X methodologies are often deployed with this conditional distribution learned in sample. We investigate the consequences of this choice through the lens of the distilled conditional randomization test (dCRT). We find that Type-I error control is still possible, but only if the mean of the outcome variable given the covariates is estimated well enough. This demonstrates that the dCRT is doubly robust, and motivates a comparison to the generalized covariance measure (GCM) test, another doubly robust conditional independence test. We prove that these two tests are asymptotically equivalent, and show that the GCM test is in fact optimal against (generalized) partially linear alternatives by leveraging semiparametric efficiency theory. In an extensive simulation study, we compare the dCRT to the GCM test. We find that the GCM test and the dCRT are quite similar in terms of both Type-I error and power, and that post-lasso based test statistics (as compared to lasso based statistics) can dramatically improve Type-I error control for both methods

Gathering over Meeting Nodes in Infinite Grid

The gathering over meeting nodes problem asks the robots to gather at one of the pre-defined meeting nodes. The robots are deployed on the nodes of an anonymous two-dimensional infinite grid which has a subset of nodes marked as meeting nodes. Robots are identical, autonomous, anonymous and oblivious. They operate under an asynchronous scheduler. They do not have any agreement on a global coordinate system. All the initial configurations for which the problem is deterministically unsolvable have been characterized. A deterministic distributed algorithm has been proposed to solve the problem for the remaining configurations. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is studied in terms of the number of moves required for gathering. A lower bound concerning the total number of moves required to solve the gathering problem has been derived

Streaming Video QoE Modeling and Prediction: A Long Short-Term Memory Approach

HTTP based adaptive video streaming has become a popular choice of streaming due to the reliable transmission and the flexibility offered to adapt to varying network conditions. However, due to rate adaptation in adaptive streaming, the quality of the videos at the client keeps varying with time depending on the end-to-end network conditions. Further, varying network conditions can lead to the video client running out of playback content resulting in rebuffering events. These factors affect the user satisfaction and cause degradation of the user quality of experience (QoE). It is important to quantify the perceptual QoE of the streaming video users and monitor the same in a continuous manner so that the QoE degradation can be minimized. However, the continuous evaluation of QoE is challenging as it is determined by complex dynamic interactions among the QoE influencing factors. Towards this end, we present LSTM-QoE, a recurrent neural network based QoE prediction model using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The LSTM-QoE is a network of cascaded LSTM blocks to capture the nonlinearities and the complex temporal dependencies involved in the time varying QoE. Based on an evaluation over several publicly available continuous QoE databases, we demonstrate that the LSTM-QoE has the capability to model the QoE dynamics effectively. We compare the proposed model with the state-of-the-art QoE prediction models and show that it provides superior performance across these databases. Further, we discuss the state space perspective for the LSTM-QoE and show the efficacy of the state space modeling approaches for QoE prediction

Modeling Continuous Video QoE Evolution: A State Space Approach

A rapid increase in the video traffic together with an increasing demand for higher quality videos has put a significant load on content delivery networks in the recent years. Due to the relatively limited delivery infrastructure, the video users in HTTP streaming often encounter dynamically varying quality over time due to rate adaptation, while the delays in video packet arrivals result in rebuffering events. The user quality-of-experience (QoE) degrades and varies with time because of these factors. Thus, it is imperative to monitor the QoE continuously in order to minimize these degradations and deliver an optimized QoE to the users. Towards this end, we propose a nonlinear state space model for efficiently and effectively predicting the user QoE on a continuous time basis. The QoE prediction using the proposed approach relies on a state space that is defined by a set of carefully chosen time varying QoE determining features. An evaluation of the proposed approach conducted on two publicly available continuous QoE databases shows a superior QoE prediction performance over the state-of-the-art QoE modeling approaches. The evaluation results also demonstrate the efficacy of the selected features and the model order employed for predicting the QoE. Finally, we show that the proposed model is completely state controllable and observable, so that the potential of state space modeling approaches can be exploited for further improving QoE prediction.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, conferenc

Observing Human Mobility Internationally During COVID-19

This article analyzes visual data captured from five countries and three U.S. states to evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown policies for reducing the spread of COVID-19. The main challenge is the scale: nearly six million images are analyzed to observe how people respond to the policy changes

The global, regional, and national burden of adult lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancer in 204 countries and territories:A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mutual Visibility by Fat Robots with Slim Omnidirectional Camera

In the existing literature of the Mutual Visibility problem for autonomous robot swarms, the adopted visibility models have some idealistic assumptions that are not consistent with practical sensing device implementations. This paper investigates the problem in the more realistic visibility model called opaque fat robots with slim omnidirectional camera. The robots are modeled as unit disks, each having an omnidirectional camera represented as a disk of smaller size. We assume that the robots have compasses that allow agreement in the direction and orientation of both axes of their local coordinate systems. The robots are equipped with visible lights which serve as a medium of communication and also as a form of memory. We present a distributed algorithm for the Mutual Visibility problem which is provably correct in the semi-synchronous setting. Our algorithm also provides a solution for Leader Election which we use as a subroutine in our main algorithm. Although Leader Election is trivial with two axis agreement in the full visibility model, it is challenging in our case and is of independent interest