Electricity Demand Forecast of College of Science and Technology, Royal University of Bhutan by 2030

Increase in the number of students and staff in the campus has led to increase in the consumption of electricity from the gird. It is important to have reliable electricity plan to meet the future needs and to become self-sufficient. This paper presents a forecast of the electricity demand of the College of Science and Technology until 2030. The historical electricity consumption data from January 2014 until December 2018 was used for the forecast. The future electricity consumption was forecasted using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in XLSTAT. ARIMA was specified by three order parameters (p, d, q). To identify the model of ARIMA, the autocorrelation function (ACF), and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) were used. The efficiency of the model was checked using root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and the sum of square error (SSE). The forecast was also validated using the best fit comparison of raw data with the predicted data. The total electricity consumption of the college is forecast to increase from 1.09 MWh in 2018 to 5.75 MWh in 2030 with an average increase of 14.67 % per year. Similarly, electricity consumption in the staff residential zone is projected to increase from 166 MWh in 2018 to 295 MWh in 2030. In the case of student residential zone, the electricity consumption is forecast to increase from 273 MWh in 2018 to 361 MWh by 2030. Keywords: Time series analysis, ARIMA model, electricity demand, demand forecasting. DOI: 10.7176/JEP/11-30-05 Publication date:October 31st 202

Biosecurity survey in relation to the risk of HPAI outbreaks in backyard poultry holdings in Thimphu city area, Bhutan

Abstracts Background A questionnaire survey was conducted to assess the biosecurity and other practices of backyard poultry holdings and knowledge and practices of poultry keepers following an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) virus in poultry in Thimphu city area, Bhutan. Results The study identified 62 backyard poultry holdings in 12 settlement areas, and the owners were subsequently interviewed. The birds are kept in a low-input low-output system, fed locally available scavenging feed base, and supplemented with food scraps and some grain. Although the birds are housed at night in a small coop to protect them against theft and predators, they are let loose during the day to scavenge in the homestead surroundings. This invariably results in mixing with other poultry birds within the settlement and wild birds, creating favorable conditions for disease spread within and between flocks. Moreover, the poultry keepers have a low level of knowledge and awareness related to the importance of biosecurity measures, as well as veterinary care of the birds and reporting systems. Of particular concern is that sick birds within backyard holdings may not be detected rapidly, resulting in silent spread of disease and increased risk of humans contacting the virus (e.g. HPAI) from infected poultry. Nevertheless, all the respondents have indicated that they know and practice hand washing using soap and water after handling poultry and poultry products, but rarely use face-masks and hand gloves while handling poultry or cleaning poultry house. Conclusions This study highlights the importance of educating poultry keepers to improve the housing and management systems of poultry farming within the backyard holdings in the Thimphu city area in order to prevent future disease outbreaks

Burden, pattern and causes of road traffic accidents in Bhutan, 2013?2014: a police record review

10.1080/17457300.2017.1341930International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion25165-6

Burden, pattern and causes of road traffic accidents in Bhutan, 2013–2014: a police record review

From Crossref via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: epub 2017-07-10, issued 2017-07-10, ppub 2018-01-02Article version: VoRFunder: Department for International Development; FundRef: 10.13039/50110000027

Assessment of exposure to pesticides and the knowledge, attitude and practice among farmers of western Bhutan.

An estimated 69% of the population of Bhutan is engaged in agriculture. Farmers are exposed to a wide variety of pesticides during the preparation, transport, storage, mixing and application of pesticides posing a significant health risk. A controlled cross-sectional study of farmers in selected sites of Bhutan was conducted to characterize the level of exposure to pesticides and assess their knowledge attitude and practice on the safe handling of pesticides. A total of 399 participants were enrolled in the study comprising of 295 exposed farmers and 104 healthy and unexposed controls. A structured investigator administered questionaries was used to assess their Knowledge, Attitude and practice, and their blood samples were taken for measuring Acetyl Cholinesterase enzyme activity level. There was a significant difference between the Acetyl Cholinesterase enzyme inhibition of exposed and non-exposed control groups observed in the study (P 30% as compared to the unexposed group. Safety practices of handling pesticides were low. The most common symptoms self-reported were headache (OR 1.08, 0.60-1.93) and neurological problems like forgetfulness, lack of concentration (OR 1.12, 0.50-2.48) and increased tiredness (OR 1.075, 0.52-2.19) that were significantly associated with the enzyme inhibition. In addition, we record a very low level of knowledge (17.0%), a fair attitude (63.0%) and poor practice (35.0%) on the safe handling and management of pesticides. This pilot study provides indication of exposure to pesticides in the selected sites of the country. Furthermore, it provides evidence for public health interventions by identifying the exposure patterns and pathways of individuals most at risk in the farming communities of the country. Surveillance and bio-monitoring programs are deemed necessary

Children’s environmental health in south and southeast Asia: networking for better child health outcomes

Children are particularly vulnerable to environmental hazards because they receive higher doses of pollutants in any given environment and often do not have equitable access to social protection mechanisms such as environmental and health care services. The World Health Organization established a global network of collaborating centres that address children's environmental health (CEH). The network developed a focus on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and is broadening its reach by conducting regional workshops for CEH.Objective: This paper reports on the outcomes of a workshop held in conjunction with the 17th International Conference (November 2017) of the Pacific Basin Consortium for Environment and Health, focused on the state of CEH in South and Southeast Asia as presented by seven countries from the region (India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Vietnam, Thailand, Sri Lanka).Workshop outcomes: Country reports presented at the meeting show a high degree of similarity with respect to the issues threatening the health of children. The most common problems are outdoor and household air pollution in addition to exposure to heavy metals, industrial chemicals, and pesticides. Many children still do not have adequate access to clean water and improved sanitation while infectious diseases remain a problem, especially for children living in poverty. Child labour is widely prevalent, generally without adequate training or personal protective equipment. The children now face the dual burden of undernutrition and stunting on the one hand and overnutrition and obesity on the other.Conclusion: It is evident that some countries in these regions are doing better than others in varying areas of CEH. By establishing and participating in regional networks, countries can learn from each other and harmonise their efforts to protect CEH so that all can benefit from closer interactions