Allocating conservation resources between areas where persistence of a species is uncertain

Abstract. Research on the allocation of resources to manage threatened species typically assumes that the state of the system is completely observable; for example whether a species is present or not. The majority of this research has converged on modeling problems as Markov decision processes (MDP), which give an optimal strategy driven by the current state of the system being managed. However, the presence of threatened species in an area can be uncertain. Typically, resource allocation among multiple conservation areas has been based on the biggest expected benefit (return on investment) but fails to incorporate the risk of imperfect detection. We provide the first decision-making framework for confronting the trade-off between information and return on investment, and we illustrate the approach for populations of the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) in Kerinci Seblat National Park. The problem is posed as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which extends MDP to incorporate incomplete detection and allows decisions based on our confidence in particular states. POMDP has previously been used for making optimal management decisions for a single population of a threatened species. We extend this work by investigating two populations, enabling us to explore the importance of variation in expected return on investment between populations on how we should act. We compare the performance of optimal strategies derived assuming complete (MDP) and incomplete (POMDP) observability. We find that uncertainty about the presence of a species affects how we should act. Further, we show that assuming full knowledge of a species presence will deliver poorer strategic outcomes than if uncertainty about a species status is explicitly considered. MDP solutions perform up to 90% worse than the POMDP for highly cryptic species, and they only converge in performance when we are certain of observing the species during management: an unlikely scenario for many threatened species. This study illustrates an approach to allocating limited resources to threatened species where the conservation status of the species in different areas is uncertain. The results highlight the importance of including partial observability in future models of optimal species management when the species of concern is cryptic in nature

Concomitant CIS on TURBT does not impact oncological outcomes in patients treated with neoadjuvant or induction chemotherapy followed by radical cystectomy

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018Background: Cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for muscle invasive bladder cancer improves all-cause and cancer specific survival. We aimed to evaluate whether the detection of carcinoma in situ (CIS) at the time of initial transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) has an oncological impact on the response to NAC prior to radical cystectomy. Patients and methods: Patients were identified retrospectively from 19 centers who received at least three cycles of NAC or induction chemotherapy for cT2-T4aN0-3M0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder followed by radical cystectomy between 2000 and 2013. The primary and secondary outcomes were pathological response and overall survival, respectively. Multivariable analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive value of CIS on these outcomes. Results: Of 1213 patients included in the analysis, 21.8% had concomitant CIS. Baseline clinical and pathologic characteristics of the ‘CIS’ versus ‘no-CIS’ groups were similar. The pathological response did not differ between the two arms when response was defined as pT0N0 (17.9% with CIS vs 21.9% without CIS; p = 0.16) which may indicate that patients with CIS may be less sensitive to NAC or ≤ pT1N0 (42.8% with CIS vs 37.8% without CIS; p = 0.15). On Cox regression model for overall survival for the cN0 cohort, the presence of CIS was not associated with survival (HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.63–1.18; p = 0.35). The presence of LVI (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.01–1.96; p = 0.04), hydronephrosis (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.23–2.16; p = 0.001) and use of chemotherapy other than ddMVAC (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.34–0.94; p = 0.03) were associated with shorter overall survival. For the whole cohort, the presence of CIS was also not associated with survival (HR 1.05 (95% CI 0.82–1.35; p = 0.70). Conclusion: In this multicenter, real-world cohort, CIS status at TURBT did not affect pathologic response to neoadjuvant or induction chemotherapy. This study is limited by its retrospective nature as well as variability in chemotherapy regimens and surveillance regimens.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Robotic-assisted radical cystectomy: the first multicentric Brazilian experience

The objective of this study is to report the first multicentric Brazilian series and learning curve of robotic radical cystectomy (RARC) with related intra- and postoperative outcomes. We retrospectively analyzed 37 RARC prospectively collected at four different centers in Brazil, from 2013 to 2019. We analyzed the patient’s demographics, pathological tumor, and nodal status, as well as intra- and postoperative outcomes. Statistical analysis was performed with the IBM (SPSS version 25) software. Overall, 86% were male, and the median age was 69 years. 83% had muscle-invasive bladder cancer, and 17% a high-grade, recurrent non-muscle-invasive tumor. The median operative time was 420 min with 300 min as console time. Median blood loss was 350 ml and transfusion rate was 10%. In 68% of the cases, we performed an intracorporeal Bricker urinary diversion, 24% intracorporeal neobladder, and 8% ureterostomy. Six patients (16%) had a Clavien 1–2, 8% had Clavien 3, 2.5% had a Clavien 4, and 5% had Clavien 5. The median length of hospital stay was 7 days. The final pathological exam pointed out pT0 in 16%, pT1 in 8%, pT2 in 32%, ≥ pT3 in 27%, and 16% pTis. 95% had negative surgical margins. The survival at 30, 90, and 180 days was 98%, 95%, and 95%, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first multicentric series of RARC reporting the learning curve in Brazil; even if still representing a challenging procedure, RARC could be safely and effectively faced by experienced surgeons at centers with high volumes of robotic surgery

Renal artery stenosis-when to screen, what to stent?

Renal artery stensosis (RAS) continues to be a problem for clinicians, with no clear consensus on how to investigate and assess the clinical significance of stenotic lesions and manage the findings. RAS caused by fibromuscular dysplasia is probably commoner than previously appreciated, should be actively looked for in younger hypertensive patients and can be managed successfully with angioplasty. Atheromatous RAS is associated with increased incidence of cardiovascular events and increased cardiovascular mortality, and is likely to be seen with increasing frequency. Evidence from large clinical trials has led clinicians away from recommending interventional revascularisation towards aggressive medical management. There is now interest in looking more closely at patient selection for intervention, with focus on intervening only in patients with the highest-risk presentations such as flash pulmonary oedema, rapidly declining renal function and severe resistant hypertension. The potential benefits in terms of improving hard cardiovascular outcomes may outweigh the risks of intervention in this group, and further research is needed

Kidney volume to GFR ratio predicts functional improvement after revascularization in atheromatous renal artery stenosis

Background: Randomized controlled trials (RCT) have shown no overall benefit of renal revascularization in atherosclerotic renovascular disease (ARVD). However, 25% of patients demonstrate improvement in renal function. We used the ratio of magnetic resonance parenchymal volume (PV) to isotopic single kidney glomerular filtration rate (isoSKGFR) ratio as our method to prospectively identify "improvers" before revascularization. Methods: Patients with renal artery stenosis who were due revascularization were recruited alongside non-ARVD hypertensive CKD controls. Using the controls, 95% CI were calculated for expected PV:isoSK-GFR at given renal volumes. For ARVD patients, “improvers” were defined as having both >15% and >1ml/min increase in isoSK-GFR at 4 months after revascularization. Sensitivity and specificity of PV:isoSK-GFR for predicting improvers was calculated. Results: 30 patients (mean age 68 ±8 years), underwent revascularization, of whom 10 patients had intervention for bilateral RAS. Stented kidneys which manifested >15% improvement in function had larger PV:isoSK-GFR compared to controls (19±16 vs. 6±4ml/ml/min, p = 0.002). The sensitivity and specificity of this equation in predicting a positive renal functional outcome were 64% and 88% respectively. Use of PV:isoSK-GFR increased prediction of functional improvement (area under curve 0.93). Of note, non-RAS contralateral kidneys which improved (n = 5) also demonstrated larger PV:isoSK-GFR (15.2±16.2 ml/ml/min, p = 0.006). Conclusion: This study offers early indicators that the ratio of PV:isoSK-GFR may help identify patients with kidneys suitable for renal revascularization which could improve patient selection for a procedure associated with risks. Calculation of the PV:isoSK-GFR ratio is easy, does not require MRI contrast agent

Age-related associations of hypertension and diabetes mellitus with chronic kidney disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies suggest end-stage renal disease incidence and all-cause mortality rates among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) differ by age. The association of diabetes mellitus and hypertension with CKD across the adult lifespan is not well established.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from NHANES 1999–2004 were used to determine the association of risk factors for stage 3 or 4 CKD (n = 12,518) and albuminuria (n = 12,778) by age grouping (20 to 49, 50 to 69, and ≥70 years). Stage 3 or 4 CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 15 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m²and albuminuria as an albumin to creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For adults 20 to 49, 50 to 69 and ≥70 years of age, the prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) of stage 3 or 4 CKD associated with hypertension were 1.94 (0.86 – 4.35), 1.51 (1.09 – 2.07), 1.31 (1.15 – 1.49), respectively (p-trend = 0.038). The analogous prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) were 3.01 (1.35 – 6.74), 1.61 (1.15 – 2.25), 1.40 (1.15 – 1.69), respectively, for diagnosed diabetes mellitus (p-trend = 0.067); and 2.67 (0.53 – 13.4), 1.35 (0.69 – 2.63), 1.08 (0.78 – 1.51), respectively, for undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (p-trend = 0.369). The prevalence ratios of albuminuria associated with hypertension and diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus were lower at older age (each p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Among US adults, diabetes mellitus and hypertension are associated with CKD and albuminuria regardless of age. However, the associations were stronger at younger ages.</p