Current and potential distributions of three non-native invasive plants in the contiguous USA

Biological invasions pose a serious threat to biodiversity, but monitoring for invasive species is time consuming and costly. Understanding where species have the potential to invade enables land managers to focus monitoring efforts. In this paper, we compared two simple types of models to predict the potential distributions of three non-native invasive plants (Geranium robertianum, Hedera spp., and Ilex aquifolium) in the contiguous USA. We developed models based on the climatic requirements of the species as reported in the literature (literature-based) and simple climate envelope models based on the climate where the species already occur (observation-based). We then compared the results of these models with the current species distributions. Most models accurately predicted occurrences, but overall accuracy was often low because these species have not yet spread throughout their potential ranges. However, literature-based models for Geranium and observation-based models for Ilex illustrated potential problems with the methodology. Although neither model type produced accurate predictions in all cases, comparing the two methods with each other and with the current species distributions provided rough estimates of the potential habitat for each species. More importantly, this methodology raised specific questions for further research to increase our understanding of invasion patterns of these species. Although these types of models do not replace more rigorous modeling techniques, we suggest that this methodology can be an important early step in understanding the potential distributions of non-native species and can allow managers of natural areas to be aware of potential invaders and implement early detection

Dispersal and establishment both limit colonization during primary succession on a glacier foreland

Plant colonization can be limited by lack of seeds or by factors that reduce establishment. The role of seed limitation in community assembly is being increasingly recognized, but in early primary succession, establishment failure is still considered more important. We studied the factors limiting colonization on the foreland of Coleman Glacier, Washington, USA to determine the importance of seed and establishment limitation during primary succession. We also evaluated the effects of seed predation, drought and existing vegetation on establishment. We planted seeds of seven species into plots of four different ages and found evidence that both seed and establishment limitation are strong in early succession. We also found that seed and establishment limitation both remained high in later stages of succession. Seed predation reduced establishment for most species and some evidence suggested that drought and existing vegetation also limit establishment. Because both dispersal and establishment failure restrict colonization in recently exposed habitat, late-seral forest species may have a difficult time migrating upward in response to global climate change

Response of Bird Populations to Long-term Changes in Local Vegetation and Regional Forest Cover

We analyzed data from a woodland site for a 59-year period to determine whether changes in bird populations are related to changes in the diversity and relative abundance of woody plant species even when vegetation structure, degree of forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape, and regional changes in bird populations are taken into account. Principal component analyses generated vegetation factors encompassing variables such as total basal area, shrub density, basal area of common tree species, and measures of tree and shrub species diversity. We also calculated a forest edge/ forest area index based on GIS analysis of the landscape within 2 km of the study site. Poisson regression models revealed relationships between these covariates and population changes for 19 bird species and for seven groups of species characterized by similar migration strategies or habitat requirements. All groups of habitat specialists showed a positive relationship with the first vegetation factor, which indicates that they declined as total basal area and dominance of oaks and maples increased and as tree and shrub diversity decreased. This suggests that floristic diversity may be important for determining habitat quality. Bird species associated with the shrub layer and with hemlock stands showed positive relationships with the second vegetation factor, suggesting that the recent decline in eastern hemlocks (Tsuga canadensis) because of hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) had an adverse impact on these species. Forest migrants, shrub-layer specialists, long-distance migrants and permanent residents showed negative relationships with the forest edge/forest interior index, indicating that conservation efforts to protect bird communities should take the wider landscape into account. The strongest relationship for most species and species groups was with the first vegetation factor, which suggests that species composition and diversity of trees and shrubs may be especially important in determining abundance of many forest bird species

Plant succession on gopher mounds in Western Cascade meadows: consequences for species diversity and heterogeneity

Pocket gophers have the potential to alter the dynamics of grasslands by creating mounds that bury existing vegetation and locally reset succession. Gopher mounds may provide safe sites for less competitive species, potentially increasing both species diversity and vegetation heterogeneity (spatial variation in species composition). We compared species composition, diversity and heterogeneity among gopher mounds of different ages in three montane meadows in the Cascade Range of Oregon. Cover of graminoids and forbs increased with mound age, as did species richness. Contrary to many studies, we found no evidence that mounds provided safe sites for early successional species, despite their abundance in the soil seed bank, or that diversity peaked on intermediate-aged mounds. However, cover of forbs relative to that of graminoids was greater on mounds than in the adjacent meadow. Variation in species composition was also greater within and among mounds than in adjacent patches of undisturbed vegetation, suggesting that these small-scale disturbances increase heterogeneity within meadows

Evaluating the success of seed sowing in a New England grassland

Grassland habitat is declining in the northeastern United States, leading to a decline in associated native species. Consequently, there is considerable interest by land managers in conserving and restoring grassland habitats in the Northeast. However, unlike the Great Plains and Europe, quantitative monitoring of restoration sites is uncommon, making it difficult to improve new restoration projects. Here we evaluate a grassland restoration in Waterford, Connecticut to determine if mechanical clearing of woody vegetation combined with sowing 23 native grasses and forbs led to successful establishment of these species. We also compared cover, diversity, and colonization by exotic and woody species in planted and unplanted areas over time. In the third and fifth growing seasons after planting in 2006, we sampled the vegetation in the planted site, an unplanted zone within the planted grassland, and an adjacent unplanted grassland. Twenty of the 23 sown species established by 2010, and sown species dominated the planted area (70% of total cover). Despite the successful establishment of most sown species, species richness and diversity were no higher in the sown grassland than in adjacent unseeded areas. However, the sown grassland contained lower cover of non-native and invasive species. Big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitman) established aggressively, potentially reducing both exotic colonization and native diversity. This study shows that sowing native grassland species can lead to the successful development of native-dominated grasslands. Results can inform future grassland restoration efforts in the Northeast and show that seeding with aggressive grass species may greatly impact restored plant communities

Combining local- and large-scale models to predict the distributions of invasive plant species

Habitat-distribution models are increasingly used to predict the potential distributions of invasive species and to inform monitoring. However, these models assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment, which is clearly not true for most invasive species. Although this assumption is frequently acknowledged, solutions have not been adequately addressed. There are several potential methods for improving habitat-distribution models. Models that require only presence data may be more effective for invasive species, but this assumption has rarely been tested. In addition, combining modeling types to form ‘ensemble’ models may improve the accuracy of predictions. However, even with these improvements, models developed for recently invaded areas are greatly influenced by the current distributions of species and thus reflect near- rather than long-term potential for invasion. Larger scale models from species’ native and invaded ranges may better reflect long-term invasion potential, but they lack finer scale resolution. We compared logistic regression (which uses presence/absence data) and two presence-only methods for modeling the potential distributions of three invasive plant species on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State, USA. We then combined the three methods to create ensemble models. We also developed climate-envelope models for the same species based on larger scale distributions and combined models from multiple scales to create an index of near- and long-term invasion risk to inform monitoring in Olympic National Park (ONP). Neither presence-only nor ensemble models were more accurate than logistic regression for any of the species. Larger scale models predicted much greater areas at risk of invasion. Our index of near- and long-term invasion risk indicates that \u3c4% of ONP is at high near-term risk of invasion while 67-99% of the Park is at moderate or high long-term risk of invasion. We demonstrate how modeling results can be used to guide the design of monitoring protocols and monitoring results can in turn be used to refine models. We propose that by using models from multiple scales to predict invasion risk and by explicitly linking model development to monitoring, it may be possible to overcome some of the limitations of habitat-distribution models

Nature in 19th Century German Literature

Author will be presenting the research from capstone course on nature’s thematic role in 19th Century German literature. Author will present and analyze three texts; Elective Affinities by Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Lenz by Georg Büchner, and Rock Crystal by Adalbert Stifter. The ‘landscape’ of Elective Affinities by Johann Wolfgang von Goethe presents the subdued aspect of nature and society’s ability to control the environment following the scientific revolution. In Georg Büchner’s Lenz, nature’s unpredictability and chaotic state is observed overwhelming Lenz’s schizophrenic mind. Finally, the limits that nature sets for modernity and the borders it constructs for society in Rock Crystal by Adalbert Stifter. Mentor: Thorsten Carstensen, Department of World Languages and Cultures, IU School of Liberal Art

Challenges in predicting the future distributions of invasive plant species

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict distributions of invasive species. If successful, these models can help managers target limited resources for monitoring and controlling invasive species to areas of high invasion risk. Model accuracy is usually determined using current species distributions, but because invasive species are not at equilibrium with the environment, high current accuracy may not indicate high future accuracy. I used 1982 species distribution data from Bolleswood Natural Area, Connecticut, USA, to create SDMs for two forest invaders, Celastrus orbiculatus and Rosa multiflora. I then used more recent data, from 1992 and 2002, as validation data sets to determine how model accuracy changed over time and if current and future accuracy were related. I also tested if three alternative approaches – iterative modeling, alternative methods of choosing suitability thresholds and using a risk assessment framework – improved accuracy in predicting future distributions. Model accuracy declined over time with greater declines for models of the species (Celastrus) with the higher initial accuracy. By 2002, 49% of Celastrus and 85% of Rosa new occurrences were correctly predicted by models. Neither iterative modeling nor alternative thresholds improved accuracy of predicting 2002 occurrences, but a risk assessment framework showed promise for guiding monitoring efforts. These results suggest that measures of current accuracy may not indicate a model’s predictive accuracy and must be used cautiously. Distinguishing between predictions of current and future distributions is critical. While iterative models were not successful in this study, I argue that using models in a risk assessment framework closely tied to monitoring will greatly increase the utility of SDMs for managing invasive species