FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) prepares a preliminary agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade every fall. This is followed by an outside review, re-evaluation of projections, and completion of the final baseline in January. The FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook presents these final projections for world agricultural markets. A companion volume, the FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook, presents the U.S. component of the baseline. FAPRI projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements. FAPRI projections do not include conjectures on potential policy changes, such as those resulting from the likely eastward enlargement of the European Union (EU). The baseline predicts recovery of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade, but with remaining price weakness for crops. Stock-to-use ratios in world crop markets remain high despite the strong recovery of Asian and Latin American economies. Above-average yields kept world production high relative to demand in 1999. In contrast, pork and beef prices are increasing significantly above their 1999 level. The physical volume of U.S. agricultural exports is projected to reverse the downward trend of fiscal year (FY) 1999, whereas the value of agricultural exports continue to decline for one more year before recovering because of low crop prices in 2000/01. World crop trade is projected to increase by 55 million metric tons (mmt) in the coming decade, with the United States capturing 49 percent of the expanded market, but still unable to increase its market share by a large percentage. Following this expansion of the market, grain prices increase by 35 percent in the projection period, but still stay well below the peak of 1995/96. The increase in world crop trade reflects the increasing specialization occurring in world agriculture. Increased market access and land scarcity in many Asian economies induce them to import grains and oilseeds to meet their feed demand. Developing Asia remains the fastest growing market for corn in the next decade. With implementation of Agenda 2000 reforms, the EU will reduce its wheat domestic price relative to the world price and will export wheat without subsidies after 2004, constraining gains in market shares for the United States. EU barley exports will expand significantly in the coming years but are likely to be constrained by General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) commitments on export subsidies after 2004. World meat trade will increase by 31 percent over the next decade. The United States has become a competitive producer and exporter of meat products. In the coming decade, the United States will experience the largest meat export growth rates among major exporters of beef, pork, and broilers. U.S. exporters capture more than 70 percent of the growth in trade, increasing their share of the combined meat markets from 23 percent in 1999 to 37 percent in 2009. Meat imports are recovering and expanding rapidly in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In Japan, the share of imports in consumption increases from 38 percent in the 1990s to 49 percent at the end of the next decade. Taiwan meat imports will triple from 1990-1999 levels to 2000-2009 levels, driven by imports of beef, non muscle pork products, and the opening of the poultry market. Recovery of Asian food demand will prompt dairy prices to grow by about 1 percent per year over the next decade. Total milk production is projected to increase, with particularly strong growth in the United States, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. Most of the growth occurs through yield increases. Per capita cheese consumption is expected to grow by 1 to 2 percent a year in most countries.Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2001 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 1999 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Persistence of African Swine Fever Virus in Feed and Feed Mill Environment over Time after Manufacture of Experimentally Inoculated Feed

To reduce the risk of disease from harmful feed-based pathogens, some feed manufacturers quarantine high-risk ingredients prior to their inclusion in feed. Data exist that confirms this practice is effective, but to our knowledge there is no information about porcine pathogen survival in mill environments. The objective of this study was to determine survival of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in swine feed and on mill surfaces after manufacture of experimentally inoculated swine feed. A pilot-scale feed mill was placed within a biosecurity level (BSL) 3 facility to manufacture batches of feed. The priming batch, Batch 1, was ASFV-free feed and was followed with Batch 2 which was experimentally inoculated with ASFV (5.6 × 104 TCID50/gram). Four subsequent ASFV-free batches were then manufactured (Batch 3-6). After each batch of feed, 10 feed samples were aseptically collected in a double ‘X’ pattern. During feed manufacturing, 24 steel coupons were placed on the floor of the manufacturing area and feed dust was allowed to settle onto them overnight. Once feed manufacturing was completed, feed samples and steel coupons were stored at room temperature. On the day of (day 0) and d 3, 7, 14, 28, 60, 90, and 180 after feed manufacturing, feed samples and 3 steel coupons were randomly selected, taken out of storage, and analyzed for ASFV DNA. For feed samples there was a statistically significant (P = 0.023) batch × day interaction for log10 genomic copies per gram of feed, and a marginal statistical significance (P = 0.072) for batch × day interaction for cycle threshold (Ct) values. This indicates that the batch of feed and days held at room temperature impacted the amount of the detectable ASFV DNA in feed samples. There was no evidence (P = 0.433) of ASFV degradation on environmental coupons over the 180-d storage period. This study found that quarantine time can help reduce, but not eliminate ASFV DNA in feed over time. Surprisingly, ASFV DNA is detectable on feed manufacturing surfaces for at least 180 days

Effect of mixing and feed batch sequencing on the prevalence and distribution of African swine fever virus in swine feed

It is critical to have methods that can detect and mitigate the risk of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in potentially contaminated feed or ingredients bound for the United States. The purpose of this work was to evaluate feed batch sequencing as a mitigation technique for ASFV contamination in a feed mill, and to determine if a feed sampling method could identify ASFV following experimental inoculation. Batches of feed were manufactured in a BSL-3Ag room at Kansas State University's Biosafety Research Institute in Manhattan, Kansas. First, the pilot feed manufacturing system mixed, conveyed, and discharged an ASFV-free diet. Next, a diet was manufactured using the same equipment, but contained feed inoculated with ASFV for final concentration of 5.6 × 104 TCID50/g. Then, four subsequent ASFV-free batches of feed were manufactured. After discharging each batch into a collection container, 10 samples were collected in a double ‘X’ pattern. Samples were analysed using a qPCR assay for ASFV p72 gene then the cycle threshold (Ct) and Log10 genomic copy number (CN)/g of feed were determined. The qPCR Ct values (p < .0001) and the Log10 genomic CN/g (p < .0001) content of feed samples were impacted based on the batch of feed. Feed samples obtained after manufacturing the ASFV-contaminated diet contained the greatest amounts of ASFV p72 DNA across all criteria (p < .05). Quantity of ASFV p72 DNA decreased sequentially as additional batches of feed were manufactured, but was still detectable after batch sequence 4. This subsampling method was able to identify ASFV genetic material in feed samples using p72 qPCR. In summary, sequencing batches of feed decreases concentration of ASFV contamination in feed, but does not eliminate it. Bulk ingredients can be accurately evaluated for ASFV contamination by collecting 10 subsamples using the sampling method described herein. Future research is needed to evaluate if different mitigation techniques can reduce ASFV feed contamination

Evaluating the distribution of African swine fever virus within a feed mill environment following manufacture of inoculated feed

11 Pág. Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA)It is critical to understand the role feed manufacturing may have regarding potential African swine fever virus (ASFV) transmission, especially given the evidence that feed and/or ingredients may be potential vectors. The objective of the study was to evaluate the distribution of ASFV in a feed mill following manufacture of contaminated feed. To accomplish this, a pilot-scale feed mill consisting of a mixer, bucket elevator, and spouting was constructed in a BSL-3Ag facility. First, a batch of ASFV-free feed was manufactured, followed by a batch of feed that had an ASFV-contaminated ingredient added to feed, which was then mixed and discharged from the equipment. Subsequently, four additional ASFV-free batches of feed were manufactured using the same equipment. Environmental swabs from 18 locations within the BSL-3Ag room were collected after each batch of feed was discharged. The locations of the swabs were categorized into four zones: 1) feed contact surface, 2) non-feed contact surface 1 meter from feed, and 4) transient surfaces. Environmental swabs were analyzed using a qPCR specific for the ASFV p72 gene and reported as genomic copy number (CN)/mL of environmental swab processing buffer. Genomic copies were transformed with a log10 function for statistical analysis. There was no evidence of a zone × batch interaction for log10 genomic CN/mL (P = 0.625) or cycle threshold (Ct) value (P = 0.608). Sampling zone impacted the log10 p72 genomic CN/mL (P < 0.0001) and Ct values (P < 0.0001), with a greater amount of viral genome detected on transient surfaces compared to other surfaces (P < 0.05). This study illustrates that once ASFV enters the feed mill environment it becomes widespread and movement of people can significantly contribute to the spread of ASFV in a feed mill environment.Funding for this work was obtained from the NBAF Transition Funds from the state of Kansas (JAR), the National Pork Board under award number 20-018 (CKJ), the Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence for Emerging and Zoonotic Animal Diseases under grant number HSHQDC 16-A-B0006 (JAR), and the AMP Core of the NIGMS COBRE Center on Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (CEZID) under award number P20GM13044 (JAR)Peer reviewe

Prevalence and Distribution of African Swine Fever Virus in Swine Feed After Mixing and Feed Batch Sequencing

As the United States maintains trade with countries where African swine fever virus (ASFV) is endemic, it is critical to have methods that can detect and mitigate the risk of ASFV in potentially contaminated feed or ingredients. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to 1) evaluate feed batch sequencing as a mitigation technique for ASFV contamination in a feed mill, and 2) determine if a feed sampling method could identify ASFV following experimental inoculation. Batches of feed were manufactured in a BSL-3Ag room at Kansas State University’s Biosafety Research Institute in Manhattan, KS. First, the pilot feed manufacturing system mixed, conveyed, and discharged an ASFV-free diet. Next, a diet was manufactured using the same equipment, but contained feed inoculated with ASFV for a final concentration of 5.6 × 104 TCID50/g. Then, four subsequent ASFV-free batches of feed were manufactured. After discharging each batch into a biohazard tote, 10 samples were collected in a double ‘X’ pattern. Samples were analyzed using a qPCR assay specific for the ASFV p72 gene to determine the cycle threshold (Ct) and log10 genomic copy number (CN)/g of feed. Batch of feed affected the qPCR Ct values (P \u3c 0.0001) and the log10 genomic CN/g (P \u3c 0.0001) content of feed. Feed samples obtained after manufacturing the ASFV-contaminated diet contained the greatest (P \u3c 0.05) amounts of ASFV p72 DNA across all criteria. Quantity of ASFV p72 DNA decreased sequentially as additional batches of initially ASFV-free feed were manufactured, but it was still detectable after batch sequence 4, suggesting cross contamination between batches. This subsampling method was able to identify ASFV genetic material in feed samples using the PCR assay specific for the ASFV p72 gene. In summary, sequencing batches of feed decreases concentration of ASFV contamination in feed, but does not eliminate it. Bulk ingredients or feed can be accurately evaluated for ASFV contamination by collecting 10 evenly distributed subsamples, representing 0.05% of the volume of the container, using the sampling method described herein

Detection of African Swine Fever Virus in Feed and Feed Mill Environment Following Extended Storage

7 Pág.One way to mitigate risk of feed-based pathogens for swine diets is to quarantine feed ingredients before inclusion in complete diets. Data have been generated evaluating the stability of swine viruses in ingredients, but the stability of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in feed or in a feed manufacturing environment has not been well characterized. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the stability of ASFV DNA in swine feed and on mill surfaces over time. A pilot-scale feed mill was used to manufacture six sequential batches of feed consisting of a batch of ASFV-free feed, followed by a batch inoculated with ASFV (final concentration = 5.6 × 104 TCID50/g), and then four subsequent ASFV-free batches. After each batch, 10 feed samples were aseptically collected in a double “X” pattern. During feed manufacturing, 24 steel coupons were placed on the floor of the manufacturing area and allowed to collect dust during feed manufacturing. Once feed manufacturing was completed, feed samples and steel coupons were stored at room temperature. Three of each were randomly selected from storage on 3, 7, 14, 28, 60, 90, and 180 days after feed manufacturing and analyzed for ASFV DNA. For feed samples, there was evidence of a batch × day interaction (P ¼ 0:023) for the quantification of genomic copies/g of feed, indicating that the amount of ASFV DNA present was impacted by both the batch of feed and days held at room temperature. There were no differences of genomic copies/g in early batches, but quantity of detectable ASFV decreased with increasing storage time. In Batches 4–6, the greatest quantity of ASFV DNA was detected on the day of feed manufacturing. The lowest quantity was detected on Day 7 for Batch 4, Day 60 for Batch 5, and at 28 and 180 days for Batch 6. There was no evidence of ASFV degradation on environmental discs across holding times (P ¼ 0:433). In conclusion, the quarantining of feed may help reduce but not eliminate the presence of ASFV DNA in feed over time. Importantly, ASFV DNA was detectable on feed manufacturing surfaces for at least 180 days with no overt evidence of reduction, highlighting the importance of bioexclusion of ASFV within feed manufacturing facilities and the need for thorough/effective decontamination and other mitigation processes in affected areas.Funding for this work was obtained from the NBAF Transition Funds from the State of Kansas and by the National Pork Board (Award #20-018), the Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence for Emerging and Zoonotic Animal Diseases under grant number HSHQDC 16-A-B0006, and the AMP Core of the NIGMS COBRE Center on Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (CEZID) under award number P20GM13044.Peer reviewe