Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended Phillips Curve Models with Non-filtered Data

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic PC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward as well as backward looking expectation mechanisms for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward-looking inflation appears stronger than forward-looking one. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich PC models. Estimated inflation expectations track nicely the observed long run inflation from the survey data. The extended PC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian Vector Autoregressive and Stochastic Volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of disinflation in recent years

Open string theory and planar algebras

In this note we show that abstract planar algebras are algebras over the topological operad of moduli spaces of stable maps with Lagrangian boundary conditions, which in the case of the projective line are described in terms of real rational functions. These moduli spaces appear naturally in the formulation of open string theory on the projective line. We also show two geometric ways to obtain planar algebras from real algebraic geometry, one based on string topology and one on Gromov-Witten theory. In particular, through the well known relation between planar algebras and subfactors, these results establish a connection between open string theory, real algebraic geometry, and subfactors of von Neumann algebras.Comment: 13 pages, LaTeX, 7 eps figure

Latest results from the EU project AVATAR: aerodynamic modelling of 10 MW wind turbines

This paper presents the most recent results from the EU project AVATAR in which aerodynamic models are improved and validated for wind turbines on a scale of 10 MW and more. Measurements on a DU 00-W-212 airfoil are presented which have been taken in the pressurized DNW-HDG wind tunnel up to a Reynolds number of 15 Million. These measurements are compared with measurements in the LM wind tunnel for Reynolds numbers of 3 and 6 Million and with calculational results. In the analysis of results special attention is paid to high Reynolds numbers effects. CFD calculations on airfoil performance showed an unexpected large scatter which eventually was reduced by paying even more attention to grid independency and domain size in relation to grid topology. Moreover calculations are presented on flow devices (leading and trailing edge flaps and vortex generators). Finally results are shown between results from 3D rotor models where a comparison is made between results from vortex wake methods and BEM methods at yawed conditions

Growth regulation and co-stimulation of human colorectal cancer cell lines by insulin-like growth factor I, II and transforming growth factor alpha.

We have tested growth factor responsiveness of a panel of eight human colorectal carcinoma cell lines. Insulin-like growth factors I and II (IGF-I and IGF-II) stimulated growth of five lines (HT-29, LS411N, LS513, SW480, WiDr). At 30 ng ml-1 both factors enhanced growth up to 3-fold. They induced half-maximal stimulation at 1.9-6.51 ng ml-1. Even after delayed addition IGF-I and II significantly enhanced growth in a short-term proliferation assay. They exerted maximal effects under limiting serum conditions (0.5% FCS) and at low cell density (1.25-5 x 10(4) ml-1). Using these conditions transforming growth factor alpha (TGF alpha) enhanced proliferation of all IGF-responsive cell lines, except SW480. 1.11-3.31 ng ml-1 were required to obtain a half-maximal response. With 10-20 ng ml-1 maximal stimulation occurred at plateau values different from those for IGF-I/II. Proliferation of all cell lines responsive to both IGF-I and TGF alpha was further enhanced by combining both factors, resulting a synergistic response of LS513, while the effects on HT-29, LS411N and WiDr were additive. With HT-29 and LS411N a 24 h exposure to TGF alpha was sufficient to obtain a full response in the co-stimulatory assay. Our results illustrate the importance of IGF-I/II and TGF alpha as stimulators of growth of colorectal carcinomas