The Cross Sectional Dependence Puzzle

The analysis of unit roots and cointegration in panel data is becoming a growing research area. A number of issues have been raised in the literature (see Phillips and Moon 1999 and 2000, Banerjee 2000, Maddala and Wu 1999). The aim of the present paper is to contribute to the issue of cross sectional dependence in non-stationary panel data. We review some of the most recent econometric techniques proposed by the literature to dealing with cross sectional dependence and notice a sort of puzzle. We extend the bootstrap methodology proposed by Maddala and Wu (1999) and apply the resulting test to test for PPP. We find no evidence favouring PPP. Finally, we use Monte Carlo simulation to analyse the size distortion of the bootstrap test presented in this paper. The proposed test presents size distortion only when T = 100.

Valuing American Derivatives by Least Squares Methods

Least Squares estimators are notoriously known to generate sub-optimal exercise decisions when determining the optimal stopping time. The consequence is that the price of the option will be underestimated. We show how to use variance reduction techniques to extend some recent Monte Carlo estimators for option pricing and assess their performance in finite samples. Finally, we extend the Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) method to price American options under stochastic volatility. This is the first study to implement and apply the Glasserman and Yu (2004b) methodology to price Asian options and basket options.American options, Monte Carlo method

The rise and fall of the ABS market

The financial crisis has raised some concern about the quality of information available on some traded assets on the securities markets to market participants and regulators. Asset-backed securitization in general got partial blame for the paucity of liquidity on bank balance sheets and the consequent credit crunch. After the Asset-Backed Security (ABS) market fell to near inactivity in 2009, the US federal government's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) provided backing and a boost to the issuance of asset-backed securitization. In this market condition, given the nature of ABS, it is difficult for them not to be relatively illiquid, and this has resulted in unacceptable levels of market risk for most investors. Their liquidity before the crisis was driven by a market in continuous expansion, fed by Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), Conduits, and other low capitalized term-transformation vehicles. Nowadays, the industry is concerned with the ongoing ABS reforms and how these will be implemented. This article reviews the ABS market in the last decade and the possible consequences of the recent regulatory proposals. It proposes a retention policy and the institution of a new financial body to supervise the quality of the security in an ABS pool, its liquidity, and the model risk implied by the issuer's valuation modeAsset Backed Security; Government Policy and Regulation

Dynamic option adjusted spread and the value of mortgage backed securities

We extend a reduced form model for pricing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) pass through and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS). The latter allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the slope of the yield curve

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS). The latter allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayments risk and changes of the yield curve.Asset pricing, Mortgage Backed Securities, Term Structure Ambiguity, arrival rate of innovation, R&D investments.

Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing and Emerging Market Economies

We provide evidence on nonlinear mean reversion in the real exchange rates of developing and emerging market economies, using recently developed nonlinear unit root tests and a unique set of monthly data on black market exchange rates.

Does the Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Emerging Markets? Evidence from Black Market Exchange Rates

We examine the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis using a unique panel of monthly data on black market exchange rates for twenty emerging market economies over the period 19973M1-1993M12. We apply a large number of recent heterogeneous panel unit root and cointegration tests. Panel unit root tests do not favour mean reversion in the real black market exchange rate. The evidence for non-rejection of the unit root hypothesis remains robust even after allowing for structural breaks. Panel cointegration tests support evidence of cointegration between the nominal exchange rate and relative prices. These results contrast with those obtained from unit root tests. Since we believe that the former may be biased by the imposition of the joint symmetry and proportionality restriction, we test for such a restriction using likelihood ratio tests and find that it is strongly rejected.black market exchange rates, purchasing power parity, panel unit root and cointegration tests

Panel Data Tests of PPP. A Critical Overview

This paper reviews panel unit root and cointegration tests in the context of PPP. It highlights various drawbacks of existing methods. First, unit root tests suffer from severe size distortions in the presence of negative moving average errors. Second, the common demeaning procedure to correct for the bias resulting from homogeneous cross-sectional dependence is not effective; more worryingly, it introduces cross-correlation when it is not already present. Third, standard corrections for the case of heterogeneous cross-sectional dependence do not generally produce consistent estimators. Fourth, if there is between-group correlation in the innovations, the SURE estimator is affected by similar problems to FGLS methods, and does not necessarily outperform OLS. Finally, cointegration between different groups in the panel could also be a source of size distortions. We offer some empirical guidelines to deal with these problems, but conclude that panel methods are unlikely to solve the PPP puzzle.Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Panel unit root and cointegration tests, Cross-sectional dependence

Valuing American Style Options by Least Squares Methods

We investigate the finite sample performance of some recent Monte Carlo estimators under different market scenarios. We find that the accuracy and efficiency of these estimators are remarkable, even when more exotic financial instruments are considered. Finally, we extend the Glasserman and Yu (2004b) methodology to price Asian Bermudan options and basket options

No euro please, We’re British!

Comparing the economic performances between UK and Euroland, the appropriate and obvious question should be: why does not Euroland replace its euro with the British pound? However, economy does not represent all the interests of the human beings. They believe in values beyond the economy. Right! It may well be that Euroland citizens, once with the euro, feel much more confiance in themselves, as part of a larger world, as they trust the monetary and political decision makers of the EU Institutions. If that was the truth, the European integration process should proceed just like a ball thrown against standing skittle-pins waiting to be got down! Unfortunately, that is not the case. The authors try to point out some reasons to understand those British people who love to look at the euro experience, sitting in their armchairs and, above all, without loosing their national pound.