A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the "Carrington-like" event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a) the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H) of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT); (b) the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs), and (c) the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in SWS

Supergranular-scale magnetic flux emergence beneath an unstable filament

Here we report evidence of a large solar filament eruption on 2013, September 29. This smooth eruption, which passed without any previous flare, formed after a two-ribbon flare and a coronal mass ejection towards Earth. The coronal mass ejection generated a moderate geomagnetic storm on 2013, October 2 with very serious localized effects. The whole event passed unnoticed to flare-warning systems. We have conducted multi-wavelength analyses of the Solar Dynamics Observatory through Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data. The AIA data on 304, 193, 211, and 94 \AA sample the transition region and the corona, respectively, while HMI provides photospheric magnetograms, continuum, and linear polarization data, in addition to the fully inverted data provided by HMI. [...] We have observed a supergranular-sized emergence close to a large filament in the boundary of the active region NOAA11850. Filament dynamics and magnetogram results suggest that the magnetic flux emergence takes place in the photospheric level below the filament. Reconnection occurs underneath the filament between the dipped lines that support the filament and the supergranular emergence. The very smooth ascent is probably caused by this emergence and torus instability may play a fundamental role, which is helped by the emergence.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, online material at Journa

An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macro-economic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the micro-structure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets