Empiricism and stochastics in cellular automaton modeling of urban land use dynamics

An increasing number of models for predicting land use change in regions of rapidurbanization are being proposed and built using ideas from cellular automata (CA)theory. Calibrating such models to real situations is highly problematic and to date,serious attention has not been focused on the estimation problem. In this paper, wepropose a structure for simulating urban change based on estimating land usetransitions using elementary probabilistic methods which draw their inspiration fromBayes' theory and the related ?weights of evidence? approach. These land use changeprobabilities drive a CA model ? DINAMICA ? conceived at the Center for RemoteSensing of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (CSR-UFMG). This is based on aneight cell Moore neighborhood approach implemented through empirical land useallocation algorithms. The model framework has been applied to a medium-size townin the west of São Paulo State, Bauru. We show how various socio-economic andinfrastructural factors can be combined using the weights of evidence approach whichenables us to predict the probability of changes between land use types in differentcells of the system. Different predictions for the town during the period 1979-1988were generated, and statistical validation was then conducted using a multipleresolution fitting procedure. These modeling experiments support the essential logicof adopting Bayesian empirical methods which synthesize various information aboutspatial infrastructure as the driver of urban land use change. This indicates therelevance of the approach for generating forecasts of growth for Brazilian citiesparticularly and for world-wide cities in general

Levantamento da composição da matovegetação e florística nativa em quintais diversificados.

O solo é componente chave no processo de produção de alimentos e fibras. A produtividade de quintais agroflorestais está diretamente relacionada com a manutenção e/ou construção da fertilidade do solo

Gender asymmetries in Portuguese trade unions: the case of the CGTP-IN

Gender imbalances persist throughout the world, particularly at leadership level, and equally also visible in the case of trade unions. This article focuses on CGTP-IN, the largest Portuguese trade union confederation, and sets out analysis incorporating both figures from this organisation and accounts by female members of CGTP-IN unions. Results confirm the existence of gender asymmetries, especially at the highest leadership levels. Analysis of the discourses of these women leaders reveals some awareness of the influence of gender on professional relations, placing women at a disadvantage, especially where leadership is concerned. Furthermore, four reasons driving the persistence of these gender asymmetries in trade union leadership/decision-making roles were identified: family responsibilities, gendered professional segregation, masculine trade union cultures and traditional gender stereotypes. Nevertheless, the interviewees resist to means of affirmative action such as gender quotas, and instead prefer to prioritise education and raising awareness around gender equality.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

On the Influence of Magnetic Fields on the Structure of Protostellar Jets

We here present the first results of fully three-dimensional (3-D) MHD simulations of radiative cooling pulsed (time-variable) jets for a set of parameters which are suitable for protostellar outflows. Considering different initial magnetic field topologies in approximate $equipartition$ with the thermal gas, i.e., (i) a longitudinal, and (ii) a helical field, both of which permeating the jet and the ambient medium; and (iii) a purely toroidal field permeating only the jet, we find that the overall morphology of the pulsed jet is not very much affected by the presence of the different magnetic field geometries in comparison to a nonmagnetic calculation. Instead, the magnetic fields tend to affect essentially the detailed structure and emission properties behind the shocks at the head and at the pulse-induced internal knots, particularly for the helical and toroidal geometries. In these cases, we find, for example, that the $H_\alpha$ emissivity behind the internal knots can be about three to four times larger than that of the purely hydrodynamical jet. We also find that some features, like the nose cones that often develop at the jet head in 2-D calculations involving toroidal magnetic fields, are smoothed out or absent in the 3-D calculations.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, Accepted by ApJ Letters after minor corrections (for high resolution figures, see http://www.iagusp.usp.br/~adriano/h.tar