Rationality, Culture, and Deterrence

FY 2012-2013. Project Lead: Knopf, Jeffrey W.The project lead will explore alternative frameworks for understanding what drives the foreign policy decisions of states. The research will seek to identify and integrate different bodies of relevant existing scholarship and to assess the implications for deterrence planning and operations.NAApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Discouraging ROK Development of Nuclear Weapons

FY 2013-2014. Project Lead: Bruce BennettIronically, the greatest likelihood for nuclear proliferation in the coming years may come from U.S. allies. The development of nuclear weapons by South Korea (ROK) could result in a regional nuclear arms race and global failure of the Nonproliferation Treaty. As North Korean development of nuclear weapons continues irrespective of the U.S. security umbrella, fewer external options remain to ensure ROK security. To assist both the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the larger U.S. national security community, the project will develop a framework for discouraging ROK development of its own nuclear weapons by meeting ROK security needs. RAND_s framework will seek to explain how ROK possession of nuclear weapons will undermine national security, jeopardize the U.S.-ROK alliance, and damage international security.Defense Threat Reduction AgencyNAApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Workshop on Trends in Science and Technology Relevant to the Chemical Weapons Convention

FY 2012-2013. Project Lead: Hughes, Kathryn J.In order to prepare positions and topics of discussion for the 2013 CWC conference, The National Academies: Division on Earth and Life Studies will hold a workshop prior to the conference. This will provide an opportunity for necessary technical discussions and scientific input concerning evolving efforts in the nonproliferation of chemical weapons.N

Global Security Engagement II: A Symposium to Update Cooperative Threat Reduction for 2016 and Beyond

Performer: National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Project Lead: Benjamin Rusek Project Cost: $126,715 FY16–17This research seeks to improve understanding among non-governmental organizations and scholars of nonproliferation and international relations of existing Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) arrangements and the potential benefit to national and international security from increased or improved CTR efforts. The CTR program was created in 1991 to provide financial assistance and engineering expertise for securing or eliminating nuclear weapons delivery systems, warheads, materials, and technology from the Soviet nuclear weapons complex. These activities continued for many years, growing to encompass a broader scope and more donor countries. Since that time, CTR has undergone significant changes, most notably the cessation of cooperative work with Russia in 2014. This research will explore possible future directions for CTR work in 2016 and beyond.PASC

Drawing Lessons from the Case of South Africa’s Disarmament for Today

Performer: The Institute for Science and International Security Project Lead: David Albright Project Cost: $100,000 FY15-16Objective: South Africa abandoned its nuclear weapon program publicly in the early 1990s. It is the only state to have relinquished its program voluntarily, making it an excellent case study from which to draw lessons. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) has a wealth of unpublished information on the program’s disarmament and subsequent external verification. This project aims to develop lessons from South Africa’s experience that provide a potential path forward for dealing with other countries, such as North Korea and Iran, which may require similar denuclearization. In addition, the research will provide policy makers with advice on how South Africa’s case can inform international agreements and initiatives to improve U.S. and international nuclear security.PASC

Trilateral Cooperation to Strengthen Extended Deterrence in Northeast Asia

Performer: Pacific Forum CSIS Principal Investigator: Brad Glosserman. FY: 2014-2015Building on the results of a small trilateral meeting held in Seoul in September 2013, this initiative by the Pacific Forum will help address each country’s specific questions surrounding the U.S. extended deterrent in a changing regional security environment. It will identify ways the three countries can work together to secure their national interests and reinforce that deterrent in Northeast Asia

U.S.-China Strategic Nuclear Dialogue

Performer: Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Project Lead: Ralph Cossa Project Cost: $212,009 FY16–17This research is anticipated to lead to greater understanding of strategic nuclear issues between the United States and China. The project will build a stronger relationship among scholars and experts in the United States and China. The dialogue discussions will provide academics and other security analysts with an opportunity to explore the differences between academic theory and the thinking of practitioners who have to implement and stand behind policy decisions. This is a follow-on project that will help build greater understanding between U.S. and Chinese experts on strategic nuclear issues by testing assumptions, correcting misperceptions, and stimulating new thinking and research in the arms control and nonproliferation community.PASC

Anatomizing Non-State Chemical and Biological Adversaries

FY 2012-2013. Project Leads: Ackerman, Gary and Asal, VictorThe START research team will explore in detail the potential CB terrorist (or criminal) adversary from a behavioral and organizational standpoint, and develop means of identifying the most likely future CB perpetrators. As a consequence, both strategic and operational risk analysis and net assessment operators can become better informed on the threat.NAApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Managing Across Boundaries: Promoting Private Solutions to the Nonproliferation Threat

FY 2012-2013. Project Leads: Blechman, Barry and Finlay, BrianThe initiative will study and engage with three distinct industry sectors on the proliferation supply chain: the radiopharmaceutical sector, the shipping industry, and the financial/insurance sector. This effort will be an industry-led model to produce nonproliferation engagement more likely to be embraced by private actors across diverse industry sectors.NAApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Implications of the Future China-Russia Strategic Relationship

FY 2013-2014. Project Lead: Richard WeitzExcluding the United States, Russia and China are the two most powerful militaries in the world. China is undertaking a comprehensive military modernization program and Russia still has approximately the same nuclear weapons capacity as the United States. While bilateral relations between Russia and China are strong in many areas, trilateral cooperation is inadequate in strategic nuclear arms control, operational arms control, and averting regional nuclear weapons proliferation. The Hudson Institute will focus on strategic offensive forces (intercontinental and short range), strategic defense (national and regional), and strategic stability issues that can contribute to further nuclear proliferation. Increased understanding of the trilateral relationship between the world_s three most important nuclear powers will shed key insight on the countries_ strategic positions.Defense Threat Reduction AgencyNAApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited