Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends

This paper examines data on urbanization. We review the most commonly used data sources, and highlight the difficulties inherent in defining and measuring the size of urban versus rural populations. We show that differences in the measurement of urban populations across countries and over time are significant, and discuss the methods used to obtain these measurements, as well as those for projecting urbanization. We also analyze recent trends and patterns in urbanization. Finally, we describe the principal channels of urbanization and examine their relative contributions to the global urbanization process.Urbanization, measurement, urban population

Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends

This paper examines data on urbanization. We review the most commonly used data sources and highlight the difficulties inherent in defining and measuring the size of urban versus rural populations. We show that differences in the measurement of urban populations across countries and over time are significant and discuss the methods used for these measurements, as well as for projecting urbanization. We also analyze recent trends and patterns in urbanization. Finally, we describe the principal channels of urbanization and examine their relative contributions to the global urbanization process.urbanization, urbanization data

Urbanisation and urban expansion in Nigeria

Nigeria’s urban population has increased rapidly over the past 50 years and will continue to grow relatively fast in the coming decades, although how fast is a matter of some dispute. Nigeria’s urban population will nonetheless likely double within the next 30 years, possibly much sooner. The growth of Nigeria’s urban population in both absolute and relative terms has been accompanied by the expansion of existing built-up areas and the emergence of new and identifiably ‘urban’ settlements. This report analyses urbanisation and urban expansion in Nigeria, portraying the dynamics and drivers of urban population growth and the spatial expansion process. The report serves as a detailed ‘baseline’ report for the urban change processes theme of the Urbanisation Research Nigeria (URN) programme – and as a foundation for the later, targeted and more detailed research

Description of potential development domains for Humidtropics—A CGIAR Research Program

It is extremely challenging to formulate and evaluate agricultural development strategies for regions as large and diverse as proposed in the Action Areas, and it will require multiple perspectives and thoughtful simplifications (Omamo et al. 2006). Empirical studies in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda (e.g. Pender et al. 1999; Pender et al. 2004; Ehui and Pender 2005) suggest that interaction of the three socio-economic and biophysical layers—population density, agricultural potential and market access—provide good explanatory power in predicting the type of agricultural enterprises and development pathways encountered in different rural communities, as the layers are strongly related to the feasibility and attractiveness of specific development and livelihood strategies (Wood et al. 1999). Omamo et al. (2006) used for East and Central Africa (ECA) GIS tools and databases to gain a better appreciation of the regional patterns of agriculture and of agricultural development challenges and opportunities. The GIS analysis disaggregates the region into geographical units, called ‘development domains’, in which similar agricultural development problems or opportunities are likely to occur, based on the spatial layers population density, agricultural potential and market access. The breakdown is done by classifying each of the three factors into two values: high or low. In the proposal for the CGIAR Research Program on Integrated Systems for the Humid Tropics an example is given for ECA, based on the Nairobi 2012 workshop. Stratification here is by domain at Field Site level with a different form of stratification used at the Action Site level (‘farming system’). The development domains in this example are defined using consistent data and criteria across the region, thus helping diagnose development constraints and formulate and evaluate strategic intervention options in comparable ways. These development domains permit consideration of the following issues: Where are those geographic areas within and across countries in ECA in which development problems and opportunities are likely to be most similar? Where will specific types of development policies, investments, livelihood options and technologies likely be most effective? For established developmental successes in any given location in ECA, where can similar conditions be found in the region

Mapping Marginality Hotspots: Geographical Targeting for Poverty Reduction

This mapping approach aims to make the marginalized and poor visible by identifying areas with difficult biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Mapping using different data sources and data types gives deeper insight into possible causal interlinkages and offers the opportunity for comprehensive analysis. The maps highlight areas where different dimensions of marginality overlap - the marginality hotspots - based on proxies for marginality dimensions representing different spheres of life. Furthermore, overlaying the marginality hotspots with the number of poor shows where most of the poor could be reached to help them to escape the spiral of poverty. Marginality hotspots can be found in particular in India and Nepal as well as in several countries in Central and Eastern Africa, such as Eritrea, Mozambique, Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Northern Sudan and large parts of Niger. Maps showing the overlap between marginality and poverty highlight that the largest number of marginalized poor are located in India and Bangladesh, as well as in Ethiopia, Southeastern Africa and some parts of Western Africa

Urban Sanitation Research Initiative 2017-2020: Driving Sector Change in Urban Sanitation

The Urban Sanitation Research Initiative aims to make a substantive contribution to achieving universal urban sanitation coverage in low-income contexts. This will be achieved through a) direct research-into policy impacts in focus countries, b) contribution to research capacity development in focus countries, and c) contribution to global understanding of how to achieve universal urban sanitation.The research will contribute to the evidence base available to in-country actors including national and city governments, and to major international donors and financing institutions. Research will reflect WSUP's core philosophy that at-scale improvement in urban WASH essentially requires two things: market thinking, including the development of dynamic small businesses in the WASH service delivery sector, and institutional change, including substantially increased government investment in WASH services for low-income communities

Paving the way for development?: The impact of transport infrastructure on agricultural production and poverty reduction in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Given its vast land resources and favorable water supply, the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC's) natural agricultural potential is immense. However, the economic potential of the sector is handicapped by one of the most dilapidated transport systems in the developing world (World Bank 2006). Road investments are therefore a high priority in the government's investment plans and those of its major donors. Although these are encouraging signs, very little is known about how the existing road network constrains agricultural and rural development, and how proposed new road investments would address these constraints. To inform this issue, the present paper primarily employs geographic information system (GIS)-based data to assess the impact of market access on agricultural and rural development in the DRC. Compared to existing work, however, the paper employs a number of innovations to improve and extend the generic techniques used to estimate the importance of market access for agricultural and rural development. We then use our derived results to run simulations of how proposed infrastructure investments would affect market access, and how market access would in turn affect agricultural production and household wealth. We find highly significant and negative elasticities between travel times to sizable cities (50,000 or 100,000 population), although we also find that these elasticities are small relative to those of similar cross-country tests. Moreover, city access by itself is less important than access to cities and ports. This finding strongly suggests that increasing investment in ports in the DRC should be a priority in the infrastructure investment portfolio.infrastructure, Market access, road and river transport, Agricultural production, Poverty, Geographic Information System (GIS), Rural development, household wealth, Developing countries, road investment, Development strategies,

Does Land Degradation Increase Poverty in Developing Countries?

Additional data sets can be found at these links and in the supplemental file: http://www.edwardbbarbier.com/Projects/ELD/Economics_of_Land_Degradation_data_2000DAL.html, http://www.edwardbbarbier.com/Projects/ELD/Economics_of_Land_Degradation_data_2010DAL.html, http://www.edwardbbarbier.com/Projects/ELD/Economics_of_Land_Degradation_data_2000_to_2010DAL.htmlLand degradation is a global problem that particularly impacts the poor rural inhabitants of low and middle-income countries. We improve upon existing literature by estimating the extent of rural populations in 2000 and 2010 globally on degrading and improving agricultural land, taking into account the role of market access, and analyzing the resulting impacts on poverty. Using a variety of spatially referenced datasets, we estimate that 1.33 billion people worldwide in 2000 were located on degrading agricultural land (DAL), of which 1.26 billion were in developing countries. Almost all the world’s 200 million people on remote DAL were in developing countries, which is about 6% of their rural population. There were also 1.54 billion rural people on improving agricultural land (IAL), with 1.34 billion in developing countries. We find that a lower share of people in 2000 on DAL, or a higher share on IAL, lowers significantly how much overall economic growth reduces poverty from 2000 to 2012 across 83 developing countries. As the population on DAL and IAL in developing countries grew by 13% and 15% respectively from 2000 to 2010, these changing spatial distributions of rural populations could impact significantly future poverty in developing countries.ECU Open Access Publishing Support Fun

Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa: a spatial equilibrium model analysis

"In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect—consumers' reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices—is generally larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously hurt. This study is based on a spatial equilibrium model that makes use of the most recent spatial distribution data sets for poultry and human populations in West Africa. The study shows that, while most of the attention has focused on preventing global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, subnational, and local levels, because AI could potentially have a huge negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa.." Authors' AbstractComputable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Small farmers, Spatial analysis (Statistics),

A Spatial Mathematical Model Analysis of the Linkage between Agricultural Trade and Deforestation

Like agricultural trade, deforestation has increased tremendously throughout the past five decades. We analyse the linkage between both factors by applying trade and forest policy scenarios to the global land-use model MAgPIE ("Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment"). The model predicts global landuse patterns in a spatially explicit way and uses endogenously derived technological change and land expansion rates. Our study is the first which combines global trade analysis with a spatially explicit mapping of deforestation. By implementing self-sufficiency rates in the regional demand and supply equations, we are able to simulate different trade settings. Our baseline scenario fixes current trade patterns until the year 2045. The three liberalisation scenarios assume a path of increasing trade liberalisation which ends with no trade barriers in 2045 and they differ by applying different forest protection policies. Regions with comparative advantages like Latin America for oilcrops and China for cereals will export more. Whereas, Latin America will buy this competitiveness by converting large parts of its Amazonian rainforest into cropland, China will benefit most due to its decreasing food demand after 2025. In contrast, regions like the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia face the highest increases of imports. Forest protection policies lead to higher technological change rates. In absence of such policies, investments in agricultural Research & Development are the most effective way for protecting the forest.International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,