Reconciling the surface temperature–surface mass balance relationship in models and ice cores in Antarctica over the last 2 centuries

Ice cores are an important record of the past surface mass balance (SMB) of ice sheets, with SMB mitigating the ice sheets' sea level impact over the recent decades. For the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), SMB is dominated by large-scale atmospheric circulation, which collects warm moist air from further north and releases it in the form of snow as widespread accumulation or focused atmospheric rivers on the continent. This suggests that the snow deposited at the surface of the AIS should record strongly coupled SMB and surface air temperature (SAT) variations. Ice cores use δ18O as a proxy for SAT as they do not record SAT directly. Here, using isotope-enabled global climate models and the RACMO2.3 regional climate model, we calculate positive SMB–SAT and SMB–δ18O annual correlations over ∼90 % of the AIS. The high spatial resolution of the RACMO2.3 model allows us to highlight a number of areas where SMB and SAT are not correlated, and we show that wind-driven processes acting locally, such as foehn and katabatic effects, can overwhelm the large-scale atmospheric contribution in SMB and SAT responsible for the positive SMB–SAT annual correlations. We focus in particular on Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, where the ice promontories clearly show these wind-induced effects. However, using the PAGES2k ice core compilations of SMB and δ18O of Thomas et al. (2017) and Stenni et al. (2017), we obtain a weak annual correlation, on the order of 0.1, between SMB and δ18O over the past ∼150 years. We obtain an equivalently weak annual correlation between ice core SMB and the SAT reconstruction of Nicolas and Bromwich (2014) over the past ∼50 years, although the ice core sites are not spatially co-located with the areas displaying a low SMB–SAT annual correlation in the models. To resolve the discrepancy between the measured and modeled signals, we show that averaging the ice core records in close spatial proximity increases their SMB–SAT annual correlation. This increase shows that the weak measured annual correlation partly results from random noise present in the ice core records, but the change is not large enough to match the annual correlation calculated in the models. Our results thus indicate a positive correlation between SAT and SMB in models and ice core reconstructions but with a weaker value in observations that may be due to missing processes in models or some systematic biases in ice core data that are not removed by a simple average

Spatial and temporal distributions of surface mass balance between Concordia and Vostok stations, Antarctica, from combined radar and ice core data: first results and detailed error analysis

Results from ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements and shallow ice cores carried out during a scientific traverse between Dome Concordia (DC) and Vostok stations are presented in order to infer both spatial and temporal characteristics of snow accumulation over the East Antarctic Plateau. Spatially continuous accumulation rates along the traverse are computed from the identification of three equally spaced radar reflections spanning about the last 600 years. Accurate dating of these internal reflection horizons (IRHs) is obtained from a depth-age relationship derived from volcanic horizons and bomb testing fallouts on a DC ice core and shows a very good consistency when tested against extra ice cores drilled along the radar profile. Accumulation rates are then inferred by accounting for density profiles down to each IRH. For the latter purpose, a careful error analysis showed that using a single and more accurate density profile along a DC core provided more reliable results than trying to include the potential spatial variability in density from extra (but less accurate) ice cores distributed along the profile. The most striking feature is an accumulation pattern that remains constant through time with persistent gradients such as a marked decrease from 26 mm w.e. yr(-1) at DC to 20 mm w.e. yr(-1) at the south-west end of the profile over the last 234 years on average (with a similar decrease from 25 to 19 mm w.e. yr(-1) over the last 592 years). As for the time dependency, despite an overall consistency with similar measurements carried out along the main East Antarctic divides, interpreting possible trends remains difficult. Indeed, error bars in our measurements are still too large to unambiguously infer an apparent time increase in accumulation rate. For the proposed absolute values, maximum margins of error are in the range 4 mm w.e. yr(-1) (last 234 years) to 2 mm w.e. yr(-1) (last 592 years), a decrease with depth mainly resulting from the time-averaging when computing accumulation rates

Ice core and stratigraphic constraints on modelling dynamic Antarctic outlet systems

Model reconstruction of past ice dynamic changes are essential for our understanding of future ice sheet responses to climate change. However, paleo ice sheet model studies are poorly constrained as spatiotemporal coverage of proxy reconstructions are sparse. Previously, we showed, that it is possible to identify or exclude past ice sheet instabilities by using the isotopic record and age structure of a deep ice core in vicinity to dynamic outlet sectors as a constraint for flow parameterizations in an ice sheet model. Here, we highlight key Antarctic ice sheet domains in which deep ice cores in concert with radar observations of the ice sheet’s stratigraphy hold great potential to provide an even more rigid observational tuning target for ice flow models. In some of these regions dated deep ice cores are already available, often including coverage of internal reflection horizons potentially connecting the ice core age structure with faster flowing outlet sectors. In other regions either an ice core providing age constraints or radar observations are not yet available. We discuss the potential of ice core/stratigraphically calibrated ice flow modelling of dynamic Antarctic drainage systems. Furthermore, we present first model estimates of the age structure in these regions and identify promising sites for future ice coring expeditions or ice penetrating radar missions

Radio-echo sounding at Dome C, East Antarctica: A comparison of measured and modeled data

The internal layering architecture of ice sheets, detected with radio-echo sounding (RES), contains clues to past ice-flow dynamics and mass balance. A common way of relating the recorded travel time of RES reflections to depth is by integrating a wave-speed distribution. This results in an increasing absolute error with depth. We present a synchronization of RES-internal layers of different radar systems (Alfred Wegener Institute, Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, British Antarctic Survey and University of Texas Institute for Geophysics) with ice-core records from the Antarctic deep drill site Dome C. Synthetic radar traces are obtained from measurements of ice-core density and conductivity with a 1D model of Maxwell’s equations. The reflection peaks of the different radar systems’ measurements are shifted by a wigglematching algorithm, so they match the synthetic trace. In this way, we matched pronounced internal reflections in the RES data to conductivity peaks with considerably smaller depth uncertainties, and assigned them with the ice-core age. We examine the differences in shifts and resolution of the different RES data to address the question of their comparability and combined analysis for an extensive age-depth distribution

Comparison of measurements from different radio-echo sounding systems and synchronization with the ice core at Dome C, Antarctica

We present a compilation of radio-echo sounding (RES) measurements of five radar systems (AWI, BAS, CReSIS, INGV and UTIG) around the EPICA Dome C (EDC) drill site, East Antarctica. The aim of our study is to investigate the differences of the various systems in their resolution of internal reflection horizons (IRHs) and bedrock topography, penetration depth, and quality of imaging the basal layer. We address the questions of the compatibility of existing radar data for common interpretation, and the suitability of the individual systems for Oldest Ice reconnaissance surveys. We find that the most distinct IRHs and IRH patterns can be identified and transferred between most data sets. Considerable differences between the RES systems exist in range resolution and depiction of the basal layer. Considering both aspects, which we judge as crucial factors in the search for old ice, the CReSIS and the UTIG systems are the most valuable ones. In addition to the RES data set comparison we calculate a synthetic radar trace from EDC density and conductivity profiles. We identify ten common IRHs in the measured RES data and the synthetic trace. The reflection-causing conductivity sections are determined by sensitivity studies with the synthetic trace. In this way, we accomplish an accurate two-way travel time to depth conversion for the reflectors, without having to use a precise velocity-depth function that would accumulate depth uncertainties with increasing depth. The identified IRHs are assigned with the AICC2012 time scale age. Due to the isochronous character of these conductivity-caused IRHs, they are a means to extend the Dome C age structure by tracing the IRHs along the RES profiles

Stagnant ice and age modelling in the Dome C region, Antarctica

The European Beyond EPICA project aims to extract a continuous ice core of up to 1.5 Ma, with a maximum age density of 20 kyr m-1 at Little Dome C (LDC). We present a 1D numerical model which calculates the age of the ice around Dome C. The model inverts for basal conditions and accounts either for melting or for a layer of stagnant ice above the bedrock. It is constrained by internal reflecting horizons traced in radargrams and dated using the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core age profile. We used three different radar datasets ranging from a 10 000 km2 airborne survey down to 5 km long ground-based radar transects over LDC. We find that stagnant ice exists in many places, including above the LDC relief where the new Beyond EPICA drill site (BELDC) is located. The modelled thickness of this layer of stagnant ice roughly corresponds to the thickness of the basal unit observed in one of the radar surveys and in the autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (ApRES) dataset. At BELDC, the modelled stagnant ice thickness is 198±44 m and the modelled oldest age of ice is 1.45±0.16 Ma at a depth of 2494±30 m. This is very similar to all sites situated on the LDC relief, including that of the Million Year Ice Core project being conducted by the Australian Antarctic Division. The model was also applied to radar data in the area 10-15 km north of EDC (North Patch), where we find either a thin layer of stagnant ice (generally <60 m) or a negligible melt rate (<0.1 mm yr-1). The modelled maximum age at North Patch is over 2 Ma in most places, with ice at 1.5 Ma having a resolution of 9-12 kyr m-1, making it an exciting prospect for a future Oldest Ice drill site

Stable accumulation patterns around Dome C, East Antarctica, over the last glacial cycle

Abstract. We reconstruct the pattern of surface accumulation in the region around Dome C, East Antarctica, through the last glacial cycle. We use a set of internal isochrones interpreted from various ice-penetrating radar surveys and a 1D pseudo-steady ice flow model to invert for both time-averaged accumulation rates and paleoaccumulation rates between isochrone pairs. We observe that the surface accumulation pattern is stable through the last 128 kyrs, both the large-scale (100s km) gradients which reflect current modeled and observed precipitation gradients in the region, as well as the small-scale (10s km) accumulation variations linked to snow redistribution at the surface due to changes in its slope and curvature in the prevailing wind direction. This suggests a stable position of the dome throughout the last glacial cycle

High resolution boundary conditions of an old ice target near Dome C, Antarctica

A high resolution (1 km line spacing) aerogeophysical survey was conducted over a region near the East Antarctic Ice Sheet's Dome C that may hold a 1.5 million year old climate record. New ice thickness data derived from an airborne coherent radar sounder was combined with unpublished data that was unavailable for earlier compilations. We find under the primary candidate region elevated rough topography, near a number of subglacial lakes, but also regions of smoother bed. The high resolution of this ice thickness dataset also allows us to explore the nature of ice thickness uncertainties in the context of radar geometry and processing

Flow re-organization of the East Antarctic ice sheet across glacial cycles

Constraining the stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) over glacial-interglacial timescales is important to both understand its sea level contributions in the past and predict its future contributions in a warming world. Constraining how fast the EAIS can deliver ice to the ocean is as important as how much. Total volume fluctuations can be inferred through the use of nunatak exposure ages and ice core dating as well as through ice sheet modeling reconstructions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole. However, the EAIS’s ice volume fluctuations over long timescales such as 100-kyr glacial cycles and short spatial scales such as single ice flow catchment are less well known. I establish a method for dating internal reflections from ice-penetrating radar data between the Vostok and Dome C ice core sites, and determine the associated uncertainties in depth and age. I constrain the stability of two catchments of the EAIS through the use of internal stratigraphy from ice-penetrating radar, dated using correlated ice cores, combined with 1D ice flow models to reconstruct past accumulation rates. Here, I show that the ice catchment at the South Pole was highly active during the last glacial maximum while the ice dome/divide at Dome C was fairly stable during the entire last glacial cycle. Enhanced flow reaching South Pole implies the EAIS’s interior is much more susceptible to changes than previously thought. The absence of flow re-organization at Dome C for the last glacial maximum in contrast to South Pole shows that flow re-organization can vary from catchment to catchment. In addition, the stability of the Dome C region for the last 128 kyrs is highly promising for the retrieval of 1.5 million-year-old ice. 1D inversions of the deep radar isochrones interpreted above the subglacial relief of the Little Dome C (LDC) surface dome, ~30 km south of Dome C, predict several 1.5 million-year-old ice drilling sites. However, the complicated basal radar internal stratigraphy above the LDC and the presence of subglacial lakes complicate the task of choosing an ice core drill site. The EAIS-wide internal stratigraphy from the extensive modern ice-penetrating radar data now available over the EAIS have improved our understanding of its configuration and stability on multiple scales and timescales, and provide a foundation for understanding East Antarctica’s future role in global sea level change.Geological Science

Can we reconstruct the formation of large open-ocean polynyas in the Southern Ocean using ice core records?

Large open-ocean polynyas, defined as ice-free areas within the sea ice pack, have only rarely been observed in the Southern Ocean over the past decades. In addition to smaller recent events, an impressive sequence occurred in the Weddell Sea in 1974, 1975 and 1976 with openings of more than 300 000 km2 that lasted the full winter. These big events have a huge impact on the sea ice cover, deep-water formation, and, more generally, on the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic climate. However, we have no estimate of the frequency of the occurrence of such large open-ocean polynyas before the 1970s. Our goal here is to test if polynya activity could be reconstructed using continental records and, specifically, observations derived from ice cores. The fingerprint of big open-ocean polynyas is first described in reconstructions based on data from weather stations, in ice cores for the 1970s and in climate models. It shows a signal characterized by a surface air warming and increased precipitation in coastal regions adjacent to the eastern part of the Weddell Sea, where several high-resolution ice cores have been collected. The signal of the isotopic composition of precipitation is more ambiguous; thus, we base our reconstructions on surface mass balance records alone. A first reconstruction is obtained by performing a simple average of standardized records. Given the similarity between the observed signal and the one simulated in models, we also use data assimilation to reconstruct past polynya activity. The impact of open-ocean polynyas on the continent is not large enough, compared with the changes due to factors such as atmospheric variability, to detect the polynya signal without ambiguity, and additional observations would be required to clearly discriminate the years with and without open-ocean polynya. Thus, it is reasonable to consider that, in these preliminary reconstructions, some high snow accumulation events may be wrongly interpreted as the consequence of polynya formation and some years with polynya formation may be missed. Nevertheless, our reconstructions suggest that big open-ocean polynyas, such as those observed in the 1970s, are rare events, occurring at most a few times per century. Century-scale changes in polynya activity are also likely, but our reconstructions are unable to precisely assess this aspect at this stage