On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing-typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) cut-off value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.</p

Development of an Integrated Governance Strategy for the Voluntary and Community Sector

This report on governance provides a framework for thinking about how policy makers, funders,regulators and advisers can all work with Board members and staff to enhance the effectiveness of nonprofit organisations. It was commissioned by the Active Community Unit (ACU) of the Home Office, in parallel with other reviews designed to improve the capacity of the voluntary and community sector, at a time when the sector plays an increasingly important role in the delivery of services using public funds. That role has recently been investigated in two Government reports, the Cross Cutting Review carried out by the Treasury, and the Strategy Unit review of charities and nonprofits. Our report proposes actions of three types: some that can be taken immediately, some that require further discussion with key interests, and some integration with the other ACU reviews. Taken together they provide the starting point for an evolving strategy to improve governance across the sector. We recommend ACU chairs a group charged with the responsibility for planning and implementing this. Our focus is on governance as 'the systems and processes concerned with ensuring the overall direction, supervision and accountability of an organisation'. This is often taken to mean the way that a Board, management committee or other governing body steers the overall development of an organisation, where day-to-day management is in the hands of staff or volunteers. Sometimes, of course, the committee and volunteers are the same. They – like all governing bodies – have to balance the interests of the organisation and those they are trying to serve, while being conscious of financial and legal responsibilities, and the requirements of funders and other supporters

Observation of a westward travelling surge from satellites at low, medium and high altitudes

The motion of discontinuity; electric potential and current structure of the event; energy source and flow; wave-particle interactions; and particle acceleration are addressed using wave, electron, ion mass spectrometer, dc electric field, and magnetic field observation from the Isee-1, NOAA-6, and the 1976-059 geostationary satellite

The spherical probe electric field and wave experiment

The experiment is designed to measure the electric field and density fluctuations with sampling rates up to 40,000 samples/sec. The description includes Langmuir sweeps that can be made to determine the electron density and temperature, the study of nonlinear processes that result in acceleration of plasma, and the analysis of large scale phenomena where all four spacecraft are needed

Electromagnetic detection and real-time DMLC adaptation to target rotation during radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: Intrafraction rotation of more than 45° and 25° has been observed for lung and prostate tumors, respectively. Such rotation is not routinely adapted to during current radiotherapy, which may compromise tumor dose coverage. The aim of the study was to investigate the geometric and dosimetric performance of an electromagnetically guided real-time dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) tracking system to adapt to intrafractional tumor rotation. MATERIALS/METHODS: Target rotation was provided by changing the treatment couch angle. The target rotation was measured by a research Calypso system integrated with a real-time DMLC tracking system employed on a Varian linac. The geometric beam-target rotational alignment difference was measured using electronic portal images. The dosimetric accuracy was quantified using a two-dimensional ion chamber array. For each beam, the following five delivery modes were tested: 1) nonrotated target (reference); 2) fixed rotated target with tracking; 3) fixed rotated target without tracking; 4) actively rotating target with tracking; and 5) actively rotating target without tracking. Dosimetric performance of the latter four modes was measured and compared to the reference dose distribution using a 3 mm/3% γ-test. RESULTS: Geometrically, the beam-target rotational alignment difference was 0.3° ± 0.6° for fixed rotation and 0.3° ± 1.3° for active rotation. Dosimetrically, the average failure rate for the γ-test for a fixed rotated target was 11% with tracking and 36% without tracking. The average failure rate for an actively rotating target was 9% with tracking and 35% without tracking. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, real-time target rotation has been accurately detected and adapted to during radiation delivery via DMLC tracking. The beam-target rotational alignment difference was mostly within 1°. Dose distributions to fixed and actively rotating targets with DMLC tracking were significantly superior to those without tracking

Failing boys and moral panics: perspectives on the underachievement debate

The paper re-examines the underachievement debate from the perspective of the ‘discourse of derision’ that surrounds much writing in this area. It considers the contradictions and inconsistencies which underpin much of the discourse – from a reinterpretation of examination scores, to the conflation of the concepts of ‘under’ and ‘low’ achievement and finally to the lack of consensus on a means of defining and measuring the term underachievement. In doing so, this paper suggests a more innovative approach for understanding, re-evaluating and perhaps rejecting the notion of underachievement