East Africa rainfall trends and variability 1983–2015 using three long-term satellite products

Daily time series from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Africa Rainfall Climatology version 2.0 (ARC2), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series version 2 (TARCAT) high-resolution long-term satellite rainfall products are exploited to study the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA, 5S–20N, 28–52E) rainfall between 1983 and 2015. Time series of selected rainfall indices from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are computed at yearly and seasonal scales. Rainfall climatology and spatial patterns of variability are extracted via the analysis of the total rainfall amount (PRCPTOT), the simple daily intensity (SDII), the number of precipitating days (R1), the number of consecutive dry and wet days (CDD and CWD), and the number of very heavy precipitating days (R20). Our results show that the spatial patterns of such trends depend on the selected rainfall product, as much as on the geographic areas characterized by statistically significant trends for a specific rainfall index. Nevertheless, indications of rainfall trends were extracted especially at the seasonal scale. Increasing trends were identified for the October–November–December PRCPTOT, R1, and SDII indices over eastern EA, with the exception of Kenya. In March–April–May, rainfall is decreasing over a large part of EA, as demonstrated by negative trends of PRCPTOT, R1, CWD, and R20, even if a complete convergence of all satellite products is not achieved.This study was supported by the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development, and demonstration under Grant Agreement 603608 (eartH2Observe)

East Africa precipitation variability during recent decades

Póster presentado en: 8th Ipwg and 5th Iwssm Joint Workshop celebrado en Bolonia, Italia, del 3 al 6 de octubre de 2016.Estimating space-time variability of precipitation is an important task in East Africa, considering the observed increased frequency of extreme events, drought episodes in particular. These events deeply affect the population with implications on agriculture and consequently food security. Daily accumulated precipitation time series from satellite retrieval algorithms, ARC, CHIRPS, TAMSAT, TMPA-3B42, and CMORPH are exploited to study the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA – 5°S-20°N, 28°E-52°E) precipitation during last decades. The analysis is carried out by computing the time series of the joint CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/index.shtml), e.g. CDD, CWD, SDII, PRCPTOT, and R1, at the yearly and seasonal scales. The purpose is to identify the occurrence of extreme events (droughts and floods), and extract precipitation spatial patterns of variation by trend analysis (Mann-Kendall technique). Prior to the analysis satellite time series are checked for the possible presence of inhomogeneities due to variations in rain gauge density and/or in the satellite retrieval algorithms

Detection and Measurement of Snowfall from Space

Snowfall detection and measurement represent highly difficult problems in modern hydrometeorology. Ground measurements are complicated due to detection technology limitations, snow drift and accumulation issues, and error definition. The snowfall detection from space is in turn affected by all detection limitations that characterize the measurement of rainfall with the addition of several complications, such as the indirect character of remote sensing precipitation estimation, the presence of frozen or snow-covered terrain, and the unknown vertical distribution of hydrometeors in the cloud column. Several methods for the retrieval of snowfall intensity from satellite have been proposed in recent times using passive and active sensors. No satisfactory answer to the general problem of quantitative snowfall intensity determination has been found to date, but several studies contribute to delineate a working framework for the future operational retrieval algorithms

Changes in extreme daily precipitation over Africa: insights from a non-asymptotic statistical approach

Extreme precipitation heavily affects society and economy in Africa because it triggers natural hazards and contributes large amounts of freshwater. Understanding past changes in extreme precipitation could help us improve our projections of extremes, thus reducing the vulnerability of the region to climate change. Here, we combine high-resolution satellite data (1981-2019) with a novel non-asymptotic statistical approach, which explicitly separates intensity and occurrence of the process. We investigate past changes in extreme daily precipitation amounts relevant to engineering and risk management. Significant (alpha = 0.05) positive and negative trends in annual maximum daily precipitation are reported in -20 % of Africa both at the local scales (0.05 degrees) and mesoscales (1 degrees). Our statistical model is able to explain -90% of their variance, and performs well (72% explained variance) even when annual maxima are explicitly censored from the parameter estimation. This suggests possible applications in situations in which the observed extremes are not quantitatively trusted. We present results at the continental scale, as well as for six areas characterized by different climatic characteristics and forcing mechanisms underlying the ongoing changes. In general, we can attribute most of the observed trends to changes in the tail heaviness of the intensity distribution (25% of explained variance, 38% at the mesoscale), while changes in the average number of wet days only explain 4% (12%) of the variance. Lowprobability extremes always exhibit faster trend rates than annual maxima (-44% faster, in median, for the case of 100-year events), implying that changes in infrastructure design values are likely underestimated by approaches based on trend analyses of annual maxima: flexible change-permitting models are needed. No systematic difference between local and mesoscales is reported, with locally-varying impacts on the areal reduction factors used to transform return levels across scales

Hail Climatology in the Mediterranean Basin Using the GPM Constellation (1999–2021)

The impacts of hailstorms on human beings and structures and the associated high economic costs have raised significant interest in studying storm mechanisms and climatology, thus producing a substantial amount of literature in the field. To contribute to this effort, we have explored the hail frequency in the Mediterranean basin during the last two decades (1999–2021) on the basis of hail occurrences derived from the observations of the microwave radiometers on board satellites of the Global Precipitation Measurement Constellation (GPM-C) from 2014 (date of GPM Core Observatory launch) onwards and merging multiple other satellite platforms prior to 2014. According to the MWCC-H method, two hail event categories (hail and super hail) are identified, and their spatiotemporal distributions are evaluated to identify the hail development areas in the Mediterranean and the corresponding monthly climatology of hail occurrences. Our results show that the northern sectors of the domain (France, Alpine Region, Po Valley, and Central-Eastern Europe) tend to be hit by hailstorms from June to August, while the central sectors (from Spain to Turkey) are more affected as autumn approaches. The trend analysis shows that the mean number of hail events over the entire domain tends to substantially increase, showing a higher increment during 2010–2021 than during 1999–2010. This behavior was particularly enhanced over Southern Italy and the Balkans. Our findings point to the existence of “sub-hotspots”, i.e., Mediterranean regions most susceptible to hail events and thus possibly more vulnerable to climate change effects

Precipitation Products’ Inter–Comparison over East and Southern Africa 1983–2017

During recent decades East Africa (EA) and Southern Africa (SA) have experienced an intensification of hydrological hazards, such as floods and droughts, which have dramatically affected the population, making these areas two of the regions of the African continent most vulnerable to these hazards. Thus, precipitation monitoring and the evaluation of its variability have become fundamentally important actions through the analysis of long-term data records. In particular, satellite-based precipitation products are often used because they counterbalance the sparsity of the rain gauge networks which often characterize these areas. The aim of this work is to compare and contrast the capabilities of three daily satellite-based products in EA and SA from 1983 to 2017. The selected products are two daily rainfall datasets based on high-resolution thermal infrared observations, TAMSAT version 3 and CHIRPS, and a relatively new global product, MSWEP version 2.2, which merges satellite-based, rain gauge and re-analysis precipitation data. The datasets have been directly intercompared, avoiding the traditional rain gauge validation. This is done by means of pairwise comparison statistics at 0.25° spatial resolution and daily time scale to assess rain–detection and quantitative estimate capabilities. Monthly climatology and spatial distribution of seasonality are analyzed as well. The time evolution of the statistical indexes has been evaluated in order to analyze the stability of the rain detection and estimation performances. Considerable agreement among the precipitation products emerged from the analysis, in spite of the differences occurring in specific situations over complex terrain, such as mountainous and coastal regions and deserts. Moreover, the temporal evolution of the statistical indices has demonstrated that the agreement between the products improved over time, with more stable capabilities in identifying precipitating days and estimating daily precipitation starting in the second half of the 1990s

Extreme precipitation on the Island of Madeira on 20 February 2010 as seen by satellite passive microwave sounders

Extreme rainfall on the Island of Madeira on 20 February 2010 triggered flash floods and mudslides with 45 casualties, 8 missing people, and 100 injured. The NE-moving frontal system originating from a low-pressure center in the Madeira Archipelago is not unusual for the area, but its consequences on the island were rather extreme. The study dwells on passive microwave sounders from polar orbiters for the retrieval of rainfall intensity and cloud classification. Heavy rainfall was generated by severe local convection and enhanced over the central mountain chain. Physical cloud classification identifies the shallow convective precipitation type lasting for a few hours around noon and the observations confirm the numerical model results

The Passive Microwave Neural Network Precipitation Retrieval Algorithm for Climate Applications (PNPR-CLIM): Design and Verification

This paper describes the Passive microwave Neural network Precipitation Retrieval algorithm for climate applications (PNPR-CLIM), developed with funding from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Union. The algorithm has been designed and developed to exploit the two cross-track scanning microwave radiometers, AMSU-B and MHS, towards the creation of a long-term (2000–2017) global precipitation climate data record (CDR) for the ECMWF Climate Data Store (CDS). The algorithm has been trained on an observational dataset built from one year of MHS and GPM-CO Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) coincident observations. The dataset includes the Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) of AMSU-B and MHS brightness temperatures, provided by the Fidelity and Uncertainty in Climate data records from Earth Observation (FIDUCEO) project, and the DPR-based surface precipitation rate estimates used as reference. The combined use of high quality, calibrated and harmonized long-term input data (provided by the FIDUCEO microwave brightness temperature Fundamental Climate Data Record) with the exploitation of the potential of neural networks (ability to learn and generalize) has made it possible to limit the use of ancillary model-derived environmental variables, thus reducing the model uncertainties’ influence on the PNPR-CLIM, which could compromise the accuracy of the estimates. The PNPR-CLIM estimated precipitation distribution is in good agreement with independent DPR-based estimates. A multiscale assessment of the algorithm’s performance is presented against high quality regional ground-based radar products and global precipitation datasets. The regional and global three-year (2015–2017) verification analysis shows that, despite the simplicity of the algorithm in terms of input variables and processing performance, the quality of PNPR-CLIM outperforms NASA GPROF in terms of rainfall detection, while in terms of rainfall quantification they are comparable. The global analysis evidences weaknesses at higher latitudes and in the winter at mid latitudes, mainly linked to the poorer quality of the precipitation retrieval in cold/dry conditions

Cloud Microphysical Properties Retrieval During Intense Biomass Burning Events Over Africa and Portugal

Clouds are a major driving force behind climate mechanisms. They strongly modulate the energy balance of the Earth through absorption and scattering of solar radiation and absorption and emission of terrestrial radiation, and on the other hand, clouds and precipitation are the regulating factors of the hydrologic cycle. Although the importance of clouds is widely recognised, their impact is associated with great uncertainties due to the complexity and space-time variation of the cloud phenomena, therefore the global monitoring of their optical and microphysical properties retrieved from multispectral satellite sensor data becomes a main task/necessity