Is scale-up worth it? Challenges in economic analysis of diagnostic tests for tuberculosis.

David Dowdy and colleagues discuss the complexities of costing new TB diagnostic tests, including GeneXpert, and argue that flexible analytic tools are needed for decision-makers to adapt large-sample cost-effectiveness data to local conditions

Diagnostic accuracy of TB-LAMP for pulmonary tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND:The need for a rapid, molecular test to diagnose tuberculosis (TB) has prompted exploration of TB-LAMP (Eiken; Tokyo, Japan) for use in resource-limited settings. We conducted a systematic review to assess the accuracy of TB-LAMP as a diagnostic test for pulmonary TB. METHODS:We analyzed individual-level data for eligible patients from all studies of TB-LAMP conducted between Jan 2012 and October 2015 to compare the diagnostic accuracy of TB-LAMP with that of smear microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF® using 3 reference standards of varying stringency. Pooled sensitivity and specificity and pooled differences in sensitivity and specificity were estimated using random effects meta-analysis. Study quality was evaluated using QUADAS-2. RESULTS:Four thousand seven hundred sixty individuals across 13 studies met eligibility criteria. Methodological quality was judged to be low for all studies. TB-LAMP had higher sensitivity than sputum smear microscopy (pooled sensitivity difference + 13·2, 95% CI 4·5-21·9%) and similar sensitivity to Xpert MTB/RIF (pooled sensitivity difference - 2·5, 95% CI -8·0 to + 2·9) using the most stringent reference standard available. Specificity of TB-LAMP was similar to that of sputum smear microscopy (pooled specificity difference - 1·8, 95% CI -3·8 to + 0·2) and Xpert MTB/RIF (pooled specificity difference 0·5, 95% CI -0·9 to + 1·8). CONCLUSIONS:From the perspective of diagnostic accuracy, TB-LAMP may be considered as an alternative test for sputum smear microscopy. Additional factors such as cost, feasibility, and acceptability in settings that continue to rely on sputum smear microscopy should be considered when deciding to adopt this technology. Xpert MTB/RIF should continue to be preferred in settings where resource and infrastructure requirements are adequate and where HIV co-infection or drug-resistance is of concern

Seasonality of childhood tuberculosis cases in Kampala, Uganda, 2010-2015.

BackgroundSeasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been described, especially in children. However, few studies have assessed seasonality of TB in the equatorial region, and none in children.ObjectivesTo assess for seasonality of childhood TB cases in Kampala, Uganda, and determine the role of temperature, rainfall patterns, and influenza cases on TB diagnoses.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed demographic and clinical data of children (under 15 years) diagnosed with TB at a pediatric TB clinic in Kampala, Uganda from 2010 to 2015. We performed decomposition analysis of the monthly case time series to assess seasonality. We compared monthly mean plots and performed Poisson regression to assess any association between TB diagnoses and temperature, rainfall, and influenza.ResultsOf the 713 childhood TB cases diagnosed at the clinic, 609 (85%) were clinically diagnosed and 492 (69%) were pulmonary cases. There were minimal monthly variations in TB cases, with a trough in December and peaks in July and October, but there was no significant seasonality. Temperature variations did not show a clear pattern with TB diagnoses. Rainfall alternated with TB diagnoses in the first half of the year, but then overlapped in the second half and was significantly associated with TB diagnoses. Influenza cases were significantly related to TB diagnoses with (β = 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09, p = 0.01) or without (β = 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.1, p = 0.01) rainfall, and had particular overlap with pulmonary TB cases.ConclusionsSeasonal variations in childhood TB diagnoses were non-significant. Temperature did not have a clear pattern with TB diagnoses, but rainfall and influenza cases correlated with the primarily clinically diagnosed childhood TB cases

Implementing pediatric inpatient asthma pathways.

ObjectivePathways are succinct, operational versions of evidence-based guidelines. Studies have demonstrated pathways improve quality of care for children hospitalized with asthma, but we have limited information on other key factors to guide hospital leaders and clinicians in pathway implementation efforts. Our objective was to evaluate the adoption, implementation, and reach of inpatient pediatric asthma pathways.MethodsThis was a mixed-methods study of hospitals participating in a national collaborative to implement pathways. Data sources included electronic surveys of implementation leaders and staff, field observations, and chart review of children ages 2-17 years admitted with a primary diagnosis of asthma. Outcomes included adoption by hospitals, pathway implementation factors, and reach of pathways to children hospitalized with asthma. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multivariable regression. Qualitative data were analyzed using thematic content analysis.ResultsEighty-five hospitals enrolled; 68 (80%) adopted/completed the collaborative. These 68 hospitals implemented pathways with overall high fidelity, implementing a median of 5 of 5 core pathway components (Interquartile Range [IQR] 4-5) in a median of 5 months (IQR 3-9). Implementation teams reported a median time cost of 78 h (IQR: 40-120) for implementation. Implementation leaders reported the values of pathway implementation included improvements in care, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and access to educational resources. Leaders reported barriers in modifying electronic health records (EHRs), and only 63% of children had electronic pathway orders placed.ConclusionsHospitals implemented pathways with high fidelity. Barriers in modifying EHRs may have limited the reach of pathways to children hospitalized with asthma

Unusual Radiographic Presentation of Pneumocystis Pneumonia in a Patient with AIDS.

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) typically presents as an interstitial and alveolar process with ground glass opacities on chest computed tomography (CT). The absence of ground glass opacities on chest CT is thought to have a high negative predictive value for PCP in individuals with AIDS. Here, we report a case of PCP in a man with AIDS who presented to our hospital with subacute shortness of breath and a nonproductive cough. While his chest CT revealed diffuse nodular rather than ground glass opacities, bronchoscopy with bronchoalveolar lavage and transbronchial biopsies confirmed the diagnosis of PCP and did not identify additional pathogens. PCP was not the expected diagnosis based on chest CT, but it otherwise fit well with the patient's clinical and laboratory presentation. In the era of combination antiretroviral therapy, routine prophylaxis for PCP, and increased use of computed tomography, it may be that PCP will increasingly present with nonclassical chest radiographic patterns. Clinicians should be aware of this presentation when selecting diagnostic and management strategies

Should Sputum Smear Examination Be Carried Out at the End of the Intensive Phase and End of Treatment in Sputum Smear Negative Pulmonary TB Patients?

The Indian guidelines on following up sputum smear-negative Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients differ from the current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines in that the former recommends two follow up sputum examinations (once at the end of intensive phase and the other at the end of treatment) while the latter recommends only one follow up sputum smear microscopy examination, which is done at the end of the intensive phase. This study was conducted to examine if there was any added value in performing an additional sputum smear examination at the end of treatment within the context of a national TB program

Sputum quality and diagnostic performance of GeneXpert MTB/RIF among smear-negative adults with presumed tuberculosis in Uganda.

BackgroundIntroduction of GeneXpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) assay has constituted a major breakthrough for tuberculosis (TB) diagnostics. Several patient factors may influence diagnostic performance of Xpert including sputum quality.ObjectiveWe carried out a prospective, observational, cross-sectional study to determine the effect of sputum quality on diagnostic performance of Xpert among presumed TB patients in Uganda.MethodsWe collected clinical and demographic information and two sputum samples from participants. Staff recorded sputum quality and performed LED fluorescence microscopy and mycobacterial culture on each sample. If both smear examinations were negative, Xpert testing was performed. We calculated diagnostic yield, sensitivity, specificity, and other indicators for Xpert for each stratum of sputum quality in reference to a standard of mycobacterial culture.ResultsPatients with salivary sputum showed a trend towards a substantially higher proportion of samples that were Xpert-positive (54/286, 19%, 95% CI 15-24) compared with those with all other sputum sample types (221/1496, 15%, 95% CI 13-17). Blood-stained sputum produced the lowest sensitivity (28%; 95% CI 12-49) and salivary sputum the highest (66%; 95% CI 53-77). Specificity didn't vary meaningfully by sample types. Salivary sputum was significantly more sensitive than mucoid sputum (+13%, 95% CI +1 to +26), while blood-stained sputum was significantly less sensitive (-24%, 95% CI -42 to -5).ConclusionsOur findings demonstrate the need to exercise caution in collecting sputum for Xpert and in interpreting results because sputum quality may impact test yield and sensitivity. In particular, it may be wise to pursue additional testing should blood-stained sputum test negative while salivary sputum should be readily accepted for Xpert testing given its higher sensitivity and potentially higher yield than other sample types. These findings challenge conventional recommendations against collecting salivary sputum for TB diagnosis and could inform new standards for sputum quality

Outlook for tuberculosis elimination in California: An individual-based stochastic model.

RationaleAs part of the End TB Strategy, the World Health Organization calls for low-tuberculosis (TB) incidence settings to achieve pre-elimination (<10 cases per million) and elimination (<1 case per million) by 2035 and 2050, respectively. These targets require testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI).ObjectivesTo estimate the ability and costs of testing and treatment for LTBI to reach pre-elimination and elimination targets in California.MethodsWe created an individual-based epidemic model of TB, calibrated to historical cases. We evaluated the effects of increased testing (QuantiFERON-TB Gold) and treatment (three months of isoniazid and rifapentine). We analyzed four test and treat targeting strategies: (1) individuals with medical risk factors (MRF), (2) non-USB, (3) both non-USB and MRF, and (4) all Californians. For each strategy, we estimated the effects of increasing test and treat by a factor of 2, 4, or 10 from the base case. We estimated the number of TB cases occurring and prevented, and net and incremental costs from 2017 to 2065 in 2015 U.S. dollars. Efficacy, costs, adverse events, and treatment dropout were estimated from published data. We estimated the cost per case averted and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.Measurements and main resultsIn the base case, 106,000 TB cases are predicted to 2065. Pre-elimination was achieved by 2065 in three scenarios: a 10-fold increase in the non-USB and persons with MRF (by 2052), and 4- or 10-fold increase in all Californians (by 2058 and 2035, respectively). TB elimination was not achieved by any intervention scenario. The most aggressive strategy, 10-fold in all Californians, achieved a case rate of 8 (95% UI 4-16) per million by 2050. Of scenarios that reached pre-elimination, the incremental net cost was $20 billion (non-USB and MRF) to$48 billion. These had an incremental cost per QALY of $657,000 to$3.1 million. A more efficient but somewhat less effective single-lifetime test strategy reached as low as $80,000 per QALY.ConclusionsSubstantial gains can be made in TB control in coming years by scaling-up current testing and treatment in non-USB and those with medical risks