Climate change awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptation from farmers’ experience and behavior: a triple-loop review

Individuals and communities socially construct risk, and societies with greater risk perception may be more apt to mobilize or adapt to emergent threats like climate change. Increasing climate change awareness is often considered necessary in the first stages of the adaptation process to manage its impacts and reduce overall vulnerability. Since agriculture is affected by climate change in several ways, farmers can provide first-hand observations of climate change impacts and adaptation options. This paper aims to identify the current research trends and set the future research agenda on climate change awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptive capacity from farmers’ experiences and behavior. We analyzed a portfolio of 435 articles collected from WoS and Scopus databases between 2010 and 2020 using bibliometrics. From the original portfolio, we select 108 articles for a more comprehensive and systematic review. Publication trends and content analysis have been employed to identify influential work, delineate the mental structure of farmers’ beliefs and concerns, and identify main research gaps. The comprehensive analysis reported (1) farmers’ socio-demographic characteristics influencing farmers’ perceptions; (2) awareness and changing climate evidence due to human activity; (3) the main perceived effects (rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and extreme events); (4) the most relevant adaptation measures (crop changing and soil/water conservation techniques); and (5) factors and barriers limiting adaptation (lack of information, credit, and expertness). The review outlines the main gaps and their drivers to help future researchers, managers, and decision-makers to prioritize their actions according to farmers’ concerns and their adaptive capacity to reduce farming vulnerability

The individual experience of ageing patients and the current service provision in the context of Italian forensic psychiatry: a case-study

Introduction. Following the recent development of residential units for the execution of security measures (REMS) managed by the National Health Service and the closing down of forensic psychiatric hospitals, no study has been conducted to investigate the individual experience of ageing patients and to assess whether the new service is adequately meeting their needs. We aim to explore the experience of the service of a sample of patients aged 50 years old and above living in one of the Italian REMS. Methods. We adopted a case-study design and included a sample of five patients. We collected their basic demographic data, administered the Camberwell Assessment Need Forensic Short Version (CANFOR-S) and carried out in-depth qualitative semi-structured interviews. Results. Results from the CANFOR-S evidenced that met needs were more prevalent than unmet needs. The qualitative interviews evidenced high levels of satisfaction around accommodation, health care provision, activities, availability of benefits and company and lower levels of satisfaction around psychological and practical support. Discussion. This study gave voice to aging forensic psychiatric patients and provided through personal accounts based on their lived experience, preliminary evidence around the benefits and limitations of the Italian residential forensic psychiatric system for this age group. Implications for clinical nursing forensic practitioners operating within different service frameworks are discussed

The closing of forensic psychiatric hospitals in Italy: determinants, current status and future perspectives: a scoping review

Introduction. Italy is the only country in the world to have closed forensic psychiatric hospitals and converted to fully-residential services. The international interest around this reform has not been matched by research. This scoping review aims to report the determinants of the reform, the most updated information on how the system operates, its benefits and its challenges. We further aim to discuss the implications for policy, research and practice. Methods. 1. Selection of relevant sources through electronic search on four databases, Google, relevant printed materials and personal communication with practitioners currently working in REMS. 2. Study quality monitoring. 3. Data extraction onto NVivo 4. Data synthesis through content analysis. Results. 43 papers were selected for inclusion in our review. Two main themes were identified: 1. Historical chronology of the closure of forensic psychiatric hospitals; 2. The current model of residential forensic psychiatric care. Conclusions. The closing down of Italian forensic psychiatric hospitals represented a fundamental step for human rights. Further work is required to improve the current service, including potential reforming of the penal code, improved referral/admission processes and consistent monitoring to reduce service inequality across regions. Further research is crucial to test the effectiveness of the Italian model of care against traditional ones

On farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its nexus with climate data and adaptive capacity. A comprehensive review

Farmers’ perception of climate change is crucial in adaptation intention and process. However, farmers’ perceptions may not be timely, accurate and systematically consistent with the direction and significance of observational records. Although some research compared farmers’ perceptions and climate data, little attention has been paid to comprehensibly analyse both data sources discrepancies based on empirical studies results. By combining bibliometrics and a systematic review approach, we identify which approaches are used to compare perceived and observed data, how both patterns have been mutually evolved, which factors determine their (in)consistency, and if their accordance and robustness affect farmers’ adaptive capacity. We analyse a portfolio of 147 papers collected from the Scopus library catalogue since 2000. The bibliometric analysis was coupled with an exploratory analysis of 98 papers selected from the original portfolio. The literature is extensive, fast-growing, and spans several disciplines. We identify four consolidated research lines: (a) perceived risk and farmers’ adaptive capacity nexus, (b) crop vulnerability due to temperature increase and erratic rainfall patterns, (c) forecasting use and influence in farmers’ decisions, and (d) climate change awareness conditioning farmers’ profiles. Nonetheless, we observe some research gaps: (a) a conceptual mismatch in ‘normal pattern’ or ‘drought’ meaning, (b) poor or limited data from meteorological stations, (c) overlook or oversimplification of local knowledge in describing perception, (d) farmers’ memory weaknesses to keep track of climate alterations, and (e) a geographical dissonance in favour of Global South regions. Our science-metric study also reveals some research questions to be consolidated: Can the perception of extreme events increase climate change awareness? Can greater awareness reduce discrepancy with observed data? How do heuristics and socio-psychological filters influence farmers’ awareness and interpretation of climate data? We suggest putting major efforts into reinforcing these research lines as part of a novel domain-dependent trend to reduce the discrepancy

An agent based decision framework to advance agricultural water management under global change

Agriculture is the major sector responsible for nearly 85 % of consumptive water use worldwide by human, where irrigation water supply is vital for coping with the inherent variability of natural hydro-climatic conditions so as to secure the production of food. However, evidenced by numerous studies, there is a strong trend of climate change, whose impact on agriculture may be multifold. For example, increase of global temperature may trigger long lasting drought events, while change in spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation would lead to less secured water availability. As the population growth is expected to continue, to meet the projected increase of food demand agricultural systems are called to adapt management strategies (e.g., diversifying crop patterns, or modifying irrigation scheduling to increase the water use efficiency) in order to squeeze more food out from a unit of water input, i.e., to follow the soft-path measures. In our work we contribute a novel decision-analytic framework to assist decision-makers in designing and assessing alternative soft adaptation solutions (e.g., distributed and participatory management, coordination mechanisms, use of medium/long term predictions) in order to improve the overall water productivity. The approach is demonstrated on Lake Como water system where a large regulated lake upstream (supply sector) is connected by an extensive cultivated area downstream (demand sector) through Muzza canal. An Agent-Based agronomic modeling framework is implemented to simulate the distributed physical environment coupled with multiple decision-making authorities, as well as their interaction amongst. Our results show that the proposed methodology is rigorous and effective for understanding the vulnerability of complex water system, evaluating alternative adaptation measures as well as assessing potential utility of technology advance in supporting agricultural practice

Timing of LGM and deglaciation in the Southern Swiss Alps

Detailed mapping of Quaternary formations in Southern Switzerland (Mendrisiotto and neighbouring regions in Italy) and a compilation of radiocarbon dating make it possible to reconstruct the geometry and chronology of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Southern Swiss Alps. A detailed chronostratigraphy of the main recessional stadials during the Lateglacial and beginning of the Holocene can also be obtained. The defined glacial stadials were correlated with the NGRIP Greenland isotopic record. An analysis of the calibrated maximum and minimum ages of the LGM allows this episode to be limited to between 28,500 and 22,900 cal BP (24,500–19,000 14C BP). The LGM advance could then tentatively been correlated with the GS-3, between 27,400 and 22,700 cal BP. For the Pleniglacial and the Pleniglacial/Lateglacial transition, the first recessional phases after the LGM were positioned between ca. 22,500 and 21,000 cal BP, and may correspond to the two first cold events of the GS-2c. The first Lateglacial stadial was the Melide stadial, and may match with one of the two cold events at 20,450 or 19,850 cal BP in NGRIP stratigraphy. In the Leventina and Bedretto Valleys (Ticino glacier), five glacial stadials have been proven for the Oldest Dryas (Biasca, Faido, Airolo, Fontana and All’Acqua stadials), two for the Younger Dryas (Maniò and Alpe di Cruina stadials) and one (Val Corno stadial) corresponding to Greenland Holocene event GH-11.2.La cartographie géologique minutieuse des terrains du Quaternaire dans la Suisse méridionale (Mendrisiotto et régions italiennes environnantes) et la compilation de plusieurs datations radiocarbone ont permis de reconstituer la géométrie et la chronologie du Dernier Maximum Glaciaire (DMG/LGM) dans le Sud des Alpes Suisses. Ces résultats ont aussi permis d’obtenir une chronostratigraphie détaillée des principaux stades glaciaires qui ont marqué le Tardiglaciaire et le début de l’Holocène. Les stades glaciaires définis ont été corrélés aux évènements de l’enregistrement isotopique du sondage NGRIP au Groënland. L’analyse des âges radiocarbone calibrés maximaux et minimaux du DMG permet de placer cet épisode entre 28500 et 22900 cal BP (24500-19000 14C BP). L’avancée glaciaire attribuée au DMG a donc été corrélée de manière hypothétique avec le GS-3, compris entre 27400 et 22700 cal BP. Pour le Pléniglaciaire et la transition Pléniglaciaire/Tardiglaciaire, les premières phases de régression glaciaire après le DMG ont été placées entre ca. 22500 et 21000 cal BP, et peuvent correspondre aux deux premiers épisodes froids du GS-2c. Le premier stade du Tardiglaciaire a été le stade de Melide, qui peut correspondre avec l’un des deux épisodes froids de 20450 ou 19850 cal BP. Par la suite, dans les vallées de Leventina et de Bedretto (glacier du Ticino), cinq stades glaciaires ont été mis en évidence pour le Dryas ancien (stades de Biasca, Faido, Airolo, Fontana et All’Acqua), deux pour le Dryas récent (Maniò et Alpe di Cruina) et un (Val Corno), en correspondance avec l’épisode froid holocène du Groënland GH-11.2

Multiple arrows in the Bayesian quiver: Bayesian learning of partially directed structures from heterogeneous data.

Motivated by the identification of complex dependencies in biological networks, we present a Bayesian method for structural learning of graphical models that exhibits two distinctive features: i) it does not assume a priori an ordering of the variables, but it learns arrows when possible and lines otherwise; ii) it assumes that the observations form subgroups having different but similar structures