The Economics Of The Duration Of The Baseball World Series

This note examines some statistical features of the major league baseball World Series. We show that, based upon actual historical data, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the two World Series teams are evenly matched. Yet, we can also calculate the relative strengths of the teams that would best match the actual outcomes, and we find that those relative strengths are not equal. Including the home field advantage in the calculations indicates that the differential in relative strength between the competing teams can be explained by this advantage. We present the relative team strengths that would maximize the probability of four, five, six and seven game series. We find that a six or seven game series is most likely when the two teams are evenly matched, a four game series is most likely when the probability of the stronger team winning is one, while the probability of a five game series is maximized if one team has a relative strength of 0 .789. We also show that, on average, the expected number of World Series games will be between 4 and 5.81, depending upon the relative strengths of the teams and the home field advantage. Contracts that do not consider the likelihood of less than seven game Series will create windfall gains to MLB and marginal economic losses to broadcasters

Theoretical and numerical studies of chemisorption on a line with precursor layer diffusion

We consider a model for random deposition of monomers on a line with extrinsic precursor states. As the adsorbate coverage increases, the system develops non-trivial correlations due to the diffusion mediated deposition mechanism. In a numeric simulation, we study various quantities describing the evolution of the island structure. We propose a simple, self-consistent theory which incorporates pair correlations. The results for the correlations, island density number, average island size and probabilities of island nucleation, growth and coagulation show good agreement with the simulation data.Comment: 17 pages(LaTeX), 11 figures(1 PS file, uuencoded), submmited to Phys. Rev.

On encoding symbol degrees of array BP-XOR codes

Low density parity check (LDPC) codes, LT codes and digital fountain techniques have received significant attention from both academics and industry in the past few years. By employing the underlying ideas of efficient Belief Propagation (BP) decoding process (also called iterative message passing decoding process) on binary erasure channels (BEC) in LDPC codes, Wang has recently introduced the concept of array BP-XOR codes and showed the necessary and sufficient conditions for MDS [k + 2,k] and [n,2] array BP-XOR codes. In this paper, we analyze the encoding symbol degree requirements for array BP-XOR codes and present new necessary conditions for array BP-XOR codes. These new necessary conditions are used as a guideline for constructing several array BP-XOR codes and for presenting a complete characterization (necessary and sufficient conditions) of degree two array BP-XOR codes and for designing new edge-colored graphs. Meanwhile, these new necessary conditions are used to show that the codes by Feng, Deng, Bao, and Shen in IEEE Transactions on Computers are incorrect

Long-Term Impact of Cyclosporin Reduction with MMF Treatment in Chronic Allograft Dysfunction: REFERENECE Study 3-Year Follow Up

Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) toxicity contributes to chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN). In the 2-year, randomized, study, we showed that 50% cyclosporin (CsA) reduction in combination with mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) treatment improves kidney function without increasing the risk for graft rejection/loss. To investigate the long-term effect of this regimen, we conducted a follow up study in 70 kidney transplant patients until 5 years after REFERENCE initiation. The improvement of kidney function was confirmed in the MMF group but not in the control group (CsA group). Four graft losses occurred, 2 in each group (graft survival in the MMF group 95.8% and 90.9% in control group). One death occurred in the control group. There was no statistically significant difference in the occurrence of serious adverse events or acute graft rejections. A limitation is the weak proportion of patient still remaining within the control group. On the other hand, REFERENCE focuses on the CsA regimen while opinions about the tacrolimus ones are still debated. In conclusion, CsA reduction in the presence of MMF treatment seems to maintain kidney function and is well tolerated in the long term

Effect of Interlaminar Epidural Steroid Injection in Acute and Subacute Pain Due to Lumbar Disk Herniation: A Randomized Comparison of 2 Different Protocols

In order to assess the efficacy of epidural steroid injections (ESI) in acute and subacute pain due to lumbar spine disk herniation, we conducted a randomized trial, comparing 2 different protocols. Fourty patients with radicular pain due to L4-L5 and L5-S1 disc herniation were assigned to receive either 3 consecutive ESI every 24 hours through a spinal catheter (group A) or 3 consecutive ESI every 10 days with an epidural needle (group B). All patients had improved Oswestry Disabilty Index (ODI) and the Visual Analog Scale (VAS) for pain scores at 1 month of follow-up compared to baseline, while no significant differences were observed between the 2 groups. The scores for group B were statistically significant lower at 2 months of follow-up compared to those of group A. The improvement in the scores of group B was continuous since the mean scores at 2 months of follow up were lower compared to the respective scores at 1 month. Protocol B (3 consecutive ESI every 10 days) was found more effective in the treatment of subacute pain compared to Protocol A (3 consecutive ESI every 24 hours) with statistically significant differences in the ODI and VAS scores at 2 months of follow-up

Acadesine Kills Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) Cells through PKC-Dependent Induction of Autophagic Cell Death

CML is an hematopoietic stem cell disease characterized by the t(9;22) (q34;q11) translocation encoding the oncoprotein p210BCR-ABL. The effect of acadesine (AICAR, 5-Aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide-1-β-D-ribofuranoside) a compound with known antileukemic effect on B cell chronic lymphoblastic leukemia (B-CLL) was investigated in different CML cell lines. Acadesine triggered loss of cell metabolism in K562, LAMA-84 and JURL-MK1 and was also effective in killing imatinib-resistant K562 cells and Ba/F3 cells carrying the T315I-BCR-ABL mutation. The anti-leukemic effect of acadesine did not involve apoptosis but required rather induction of autophagic cell death. AMPK knock-down by Sh-RNA failed to prevent the effect of acadesine, indicating an AMPK-independent mechanism. The effect of acadesine was abrogated by GF109203X and Ro-32-0432, both inhibitor of classical and new PKCs and accordingly, acadesine triggered relocation and activation of several PKC isoforms in K562 cells. In addition, this compound exhibited a potent anti-leukemic effect in clonogenic assays of CML cells in methyl cellulose and in a xenograft model of K562 cells in nude mice. In conclusion, our work identifies an original and unexpected mechanism by which acadesine triggers autophagic cell death through PKC activation. Therefore, in addition to its promising effects in B-CLL, acadesine might also be beneficial for Imatinib-resistant CML patients

Combinatorial, additive and dose-dependent drug–microbiome associations

Data availability: The source data for the figures are provided at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4728981). Raw shotgun sequencing data that support the findings of this study have been deposited at the ENA under accession codes PRJEB41311, PRJEB38742 and PRJEB37249 with public access. Raw spectra for metabolomics have been deposited in the MassIVE database under the accession codes MSV000088043 (UPLC–MS/MS) and MSV000088042 (GC–MS). The metadata on disease groups and drug intake are provided in Supplementary Tables 1–3. The demographic, clinical and phenotype metadata, and processed microbiome and metabolome data for French, German and Danish participants are available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4674360).Code availability: The new drug-aware univariate biomarker testing pipeline is available as an R package (metadeconfoundR; Birkner et al., manuscript in preparation) at Github (https://github.com/TillBirkner/metadeconfoundR) and at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4721078). The latest version (0.1.8) of this package was used to generate the data shown in this publication. The code used for multivariate analysis based on the VpThemAll package is available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4719526). The phenotype and drug intake metadata, processed microbiome, and metabolome data and code resources are available for download at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4674360). The code for reproducing the figures is provided at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4728981).During the transition from a healthy state to cardiometabolic disease, patients become heavily medicated, which leads to an increasingly aberrant gut microbiome and serum metabolome, and complicates biomarker discovery1,2,3,4,5. Here, through integrated multi-omics analyses of 2,173 European residents from the MetaCardis cohort, we show that the explanatory power of drugs for the variability in both host and gut microbiome features exceeds that of disease. We quantify inferred effects of single medications, their combinations as well as additive effects, and show that the latter shift the metabolome and microbiome towards a healthier state, exemplified in synergistic reduction in serum atherogenic lipoproteins by statins combined with aspirin, or enrichment of intestinal Roseburia by diuretic agents combined with beta-blockers. Several antibiotics exhibit a quantitative relationship between the number of courses prescribed and progression towards a microbiome state that is associated with the severity of cardiometabolic disease. We also report a relationship between cardiometabolic drug dosage, improvement in clinical markers and microbiome composition, supporting direct drug effects. Taken together, our computational framework and resulting resources enable the disentanglement of the effects of drugs and disease on host and microbiome features in multimedicated individuals. Furthermore, the robust signatures identified using our framework provide new hypotheses for drug–host–microbiome interactions in cardiometabolic disease.This work was supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Program for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement HEALTH-F4-2012-305312 (METACARDIS). Part of this work was also supported by the EMBL, by the Metagenopolis grant ANR-11-DPBS-0001, by the H2020 European Research Council (ERC-AdG-669830) (to P.B.), and by grants from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB1365 to S.K.F. and L.M.; and SFB1052/3 A1 MS to M.S. (209933838)). Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris is the promoter of the clinical investigation (MetaCardis). M.-E.D. is supported by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre and by grants from the French National Research Agency (ANR-10-LABX-46 (European Genomics Institute for Diabetes)), from the National Center for Precision Diabetic Medicine – PreciDIAB, which is jointly supported by the French National Agency for Research (ANR-18-IBHU-0001), by the European Union (FEDER), by the Hauts-de-France Regional Council (Agreement 20001891/NP0025517) and by the European Metropolis of Lille (MEL, Agreement 2019_ESR_11) and by Isite ULNE (R-002-20-TALENT-DUMAS), also jointly funded by ANR (ANR-16-IDEX-0004-ULNE), the Hauts-de-France Regional Council (20002845) and by the European Metropolis of Lille (MEL). R.J.A. is a member of the Collaboration for joint PhD degree between EMBL and Heidelberg University, Faculty of Bioscience. The Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research is an independent research institution at the University of Copenhagen partially funded by an unrestricted donation from the Novo Nordisk Foundation

Combinatorial, additive and dose-dependent drug–microbiome associations

During the transition from a healthy state to cardiometabolic disease, patients become heavily medicated, which leads to an increasingly aberrant gut microbiome and serum metabolome, and complicates biomarker discovery. Here, through integrated multi-omics analyses of 2,173 European residents from the MetaCardis cohort, we show that the explanatory power of drugs for the variability in both host and gut microbiome features exceeds that of disease. We quantify inferred effects of single medications, their combinations as well as additive effects, and show that the latter shift the metabolome and microbiome towards a healthier state, exemplified in synergistic reduction in serum atherogenic lipoproteins by statins combined with aspirin, or enrichment of intestinal Roseburia by diuretic agents combined with beta-blockers. Several antibiotics exhibit a quantitative relationship between the number of courses prescribed and progression towards a microbiome state that is associated with the severity of cardiometabolic disease. We also report a relationship between cardiometabolic drug dosage, improvement in clinical markers and microbiome composition, supporting direct drug effects. Taken together, our computational framework and resulting resources enable the disentanglement of the effects of drugs and disease on host and microbiome features in multimedicated individuals. Furthermore, the robust signatures identified using our framework provide new hypotheses for drug–host–microbiome interactions in cardiometabolic disease