Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change

Tropical secondary forests sequester carbon up to 20 times faster than old-growth forests. This rate does not capture spatial regrowth patterns due to environmental and disturbance drivers. Here we quantify the influence of such drivers on the rate and spatial patterns of regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon using satellite data. Carbon sequestration rates of young secondary forests (<20 years) in the west are ~60% higher (3.0 ± 1.0 Mg C ha−1 yr−1) compared to those in the east (1.3 ± 0.3 Mg C ha−1 yr−1). Disturbances reduce regrowth rates by 8–55%. The 2017 secondary forest carbon stock, of 294 Tg C, could be 8% higher by avoiding fires and repeated deforestation. Maintaining the 2017 secondary forest area has the potential to accumulate ~19.0 Tg C yr−1 until 2030, contributing ~5.5% to Brazil’s 2030 net emissions reduction target. Implementing legal mechanisms to protect and expand secondary forests whilst supporting old-growth conservation is, therefore, key to realising their potential as a nature-based climate solution

Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change

Amazonia hosts the Earth's largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades1-3. This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change1-3. Here we investigate Amazonia's carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a carbon source. We performed 590 aircraft vertical profiling measurements of lower-tropospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide at four sites in Amazonia from 2010 to 20184. We find that total carbon emissions are greater in eastern Amazonia than in the western part, mostly as a result of spatial differences in carbon-monoxide-derived fire emissions. Southeastern Amazonia, in particular, acts as a net carbon source (total carbon flux minus fire emissions) to the atmosphere. Over the past 40 years, eastern Amazonia has been subjected to more deforestation, warming and moisture stress than the western part, especially during the dry season, with the southeast experiencing the strongest trends5-9. We explore the effect of climate change and deforestation trends on carbon emissions at our study sites, and find that the intensification of the dry season and an increase in deforestation seem to promote ecosystem stress, increase in fire occurrence, and higher carbon emissions in the eastern Amazon. This is in line with recent studies that indicate an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in photosynthesis as a result of climatic changes across Amazonia1,10.</p

Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change

Amazonia hosts the Earth’s largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades1,2,3. This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change1,2,3. Here we investigate Amazonia’s carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a carbon source. We performed 590 aircraft vertical profiling measurements of lower-tropospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide at four sites in Amazonia from 2010 to 20184. We find that total carbon emissions are greater in eastern Amazonia than in the western part, mostly as a result of spatial differences in carbon-monoxide-derived fire emissions. Southeastern Amazonia, in particular, acts as a net carbon source (total carbon flux minus fire emissions) to the atmosphere. Over the past 40 years, eastern Amazonia has been subjected to more deforestation, warming and moisture stress than the western part, especially during the dry season, with the southeast experiencing the strongest trends5,6,7,8,9. We explore the effect of climate change and deforestation trends on carbon emissions at our study sites, and find that the intensification of the dry season and an increase in deforestation seem to promote ecosystem stress, increase in fire occurrence, and higher carbon emissions in the eastern Amazon. This is in line with recent studies that indicate an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in photosynthesis as a result of climatic changes across Amazonia1,10

CO2 emissions in the Amazon: are bottom-up estimates from land use and cover datasets consistent with top-down estimates based on atmospheric measurements?

Amazon forests are the largest forests in the tropics and play a fundamental role for regional and global ecosystem service provision. However, they are under threat primarily from deforestation. Amazonia's carbon balance trend reflects the condition of its forests. There are different approaches to estimate large-scale carbon balances, including top-down (e.g., CO2 atmospheric measurements combined with atmospheric transport information) and bottom-up (e.g., land use and cover change (LUCC) data based on remote sensing methods). It is important to understand their similarities and differences. Here we provide bottom-up LUCC estimates and determine to what extent they are consistent with recent top-down flux estimates during 2010 to 2018 for the Brazilian Amazon. We combine LUCC datasets resulting in annual LUCC maps from 2010 to 2018 with emissions and removals for each LUCC, and compare the resulting CO2 estimates with top-down estimates based on atmospheric measurements. We take into account forest carbon stock maps for estimating loss processes, and carbon uptake of regenerating and mature forests. In the bottom-up approach total CO2 emissions (2010 to 2018), deforestation and degradation are the largest contributing processes accounting for 58% (4.3 PgCO2) and 37% (2.7 PgCO2) respectively. Looking at the total carbon uptake, primary forests play a dominant role accounting for 79% (−5.9 PgCO2) and secondary forest growth for 17% (−1.2 PgCO2). Overall, according to our bottom-up estimates the Brazilian Amazon is a carbon sink until 2014 and a source from 2015 to 2018. In contrast according to the top-down approach the Brazilian Amazon is a source during the entire period. Both approaches estimate largest emissions in 2016. During the period where flux signs are the same (2015–2018) top-down estimates are approximately 3 times larger in 2015–2016 than bottom-up estimates while in 2017–2018 there is closer agreement. There is some agreement between the approaches–notably that the Brazilian Amazon has been a source during 2015–2018 however there are also disagreements. Generally, emissions estimated by the bottom-up approach tend to be lower. Understanding the differences will help improve both approaches and our understanding of the Amazon carbon cycle under human pressure and climate change

More than 10,000 pre-Columbian earthworks are still hidden throughout Amazonia

Indigenous societies are known to have occupied the Amazon basin for more than 12,000 years, but the scale of their influence on Amazonian forests remains uncertain. We report the discovery, using LIDAR (light detection and ranging) information from across the basin, of 24 previously undetected pre-Columbian earthworks beneath the forest canopy. Modeled distribution and abundance of large-scale archaeological sites across Amazonia suggest that between 10,272 and 23,648 sites remain to be discovered and that most will be found in the southwest. We also identified 53 domesticated tree species significantly associated with earthwork occurrence probability, likely suggesting past management practices. Closed-canopy forests across Amazonia are likely to contain thousands of undiscovered archaeological sites around which pre-Columbian societies actively modified forests, a discovery that opens opportunities for better understanding the magnitude of ancient human influence on Amazonia and its current state

Determination of Region of Influence Obtained by Aircraft Vertical Profiles Using the Density of Trajectories from the HYSPLIT Model

Aircraft atmospheric profiling is a valuable technique for determining greenhouse gas fluxes at regional scales (104&ndash;106 km2). Here, we describe a new, simple method for estimating the surface influence of air samples that uses backward trajectories based on the Lagrangian model Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT). We determined &ldquo;regions of influence&rdquo; on a quarterly basis between 2010 and 2018 for four aircraft vertical profile sites: SAN and ALF in the eastern Amazon, and RBA and TAB or TEF in the western Amazon. We evaluated regions of influence in terms of their relative sensitivity to areas inside and outside the Amazon and their total area inside the Amazon. Regions of influence varied by quarter and less so by year. In the first and fourth quarters, the contribution of the region of influence inside the Amazon was 83&ndash;93% for all sites, while in the second and third quarters, it was 57&ndash;75%. The interquarter differences are more evident in the eastern than in the western Amazon. Our analysis indicates that atmospheric profiles from the western sites are sensitive to 42&ndash;52.2% of the Amazon. In contrast, eastern Amazon sites are sensitive to only 10.9&ndash;25.3%. These results may help to spatially resolve the response of greenhouse gas emissions to climate variability over Amazon

Mapping and Monitoring Forest Plantations in S&atilde;o Paulo State, Southeast Brazil, Using Fraction Images Derived from Multiannual Landsat Sensor Images

This article presents a method, based on orbital remote sensing, to map the extent of forest plantations in S&atilde;o Paulo State (Southeast Brazil). The proposed method uses the random forest machine learning algorithm available on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. We used 30 m annual mosaics derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images and from Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images for the 1985 to 1995 and 2013 to 2021 time periods, respectively. These time periods were selected based on the planted areas&rsquo; rotation, especially the eucalypt&rsquo;s short rotation. To classify the forest plantations, green, red, NIR, and MIR spectral bands, NDVI, GNDVI, NDWI, and NBR spectral indices, and vegetation, shade, and soil fractions were used for both sensors. These indices and the fraction images have the advantage of reducing the volume of data to be analyzed and highlighting the forest plantations&rsquo; characteristics. In addition, we also generated one mosaic for each fraction image for the TM and OLI datasets by computing the maximum value through the period analyzed, facilitating the classification of areas occupied by forest plantations in the study area. The proposed method allowed us to classify the areas occupied by two forest plantation classes: eucalypt and pine. The results of the proposed method compared with the forest plantation areas extracted from the land use and land cover maps, provided by the MapBiomas product, presented the Kappa values of 0.54 and 0.69 for 1995 and 2020, respectively. In addition, two pilot areas were used to evaluate the classification maps and to monitor the phenological stages of eucalypt and pine plantations, showing the rotation cycle of these plantations. The results are very useful for planning and managing planted forests by commercial companies and can contribute to developing an automatic method to map forest plantations on regional and global scales

The carbon sink of secondary and degraded humid tropical forests

The globally important carbon sink of intact, old-growth tropical humid forests is declining because of climate change, deforestation and degradation from fire and logging1,2,3. Recovering tropical secondary and degraded forests now cover about 10% of the tropical forest area4, but how much carbon they accumulate remains uncertain. Here we quantify the aboveground carbon (AGC) sink of recovering forests across three main continuous tropical humid regions: the Amazon, Borneo and Central Africa5,6. On the basis of satellite data products4,7, our analysis encompasses the heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns of growth in degraded and secondary forests, influenced by key environmental and anthropogenic drivers. In the first 20 years of recovery, regrowth rates in Borneo were up to 45% and 58% higher than in Central Africa and the Amazon, respectively. This is due to variables such as temperature, water deficit and disturbance regimes. We find that regrowing degraded and secondary forests accumulated 107 Tg C year−1 (90–130 Tg C year−1) between 1984 and 2018, counterbalancing 26% (21–34%) of carbon emissions from humid tropical forest loss during the same period. Protecting old-growth forests is therefore a priority. Furthermore, we estimate that conserving recovering degraded and secondary forests can have a feasible future carbon sink potential of 53 Tg C year−1 (44–62 Tg C year−1) across the main tropical regions studied

Characterizing Canopy Structure Variability in Amazonian Secondary Successions with Full-Waveform Airborne LiDAR

Full-waveform LiDAR (FWF) offers a promising advantage over other technologies to represent the vertical canopy structure of secondary successions in the Amazon region, as the waveform encapsulates the properties of all elements intercepting the emitted beam. In this study, we investigated modifications in the vertical structure of the Amazonian secondary successions across the vegetation gradient from early to advanced stages of vegetation regrowth. The analysis was performed over two distinct climatic regions (Drier and Wetter), designated using the Maximum Cumulative Water Deficit (MCWD). The study area was covered by 309 sample plots distributed along 25 LiDAR transects. The plots were grouped into three successional stages (early—SS1; intermediate—SS2; advanced—SS3). Mature Forest (MF) was used as a reference of comparison. A total of 14 FWF LiDAR metrics from four categories of analysis (Height, Peaks, Understory and Gaussian Decomposition) were extracted using the Waveform LiDAR for Forestry eXtraction (WoLFeX) software (v1.1.1). In addition to examining the variation in these metrics across different successional stages, we calculated their Relative Recovery (RR) with vegetation regrowth, and evaluated their ability to discriminate successional stages using Random Forest (RF). The results showed significant differences in FWF metrics across the successional stages, and within and between sample plots and regions. The Drier region generally exhibited more pronounced differences between successional stages and lower FWF metric values compared to the Wetter region, mainly in the category of height, peaks, and Gaussian decomposition. Furthermore, the Drier region displayed a lower relative recovery of metrics in the early years of succession, compared to the areas of MF, eventually reaching rates akin to those of the Wetter region as succession progressed. Canopy height metrics such as Waveform distance (WD), and Gaussian Decomposition metrics such as Bottom of canopy (BC), Bottom of canopy distance (BCD) and Canopy distance (CD), related to the height of the lower forest stratum, were the most important attributes in discriminating successional stages in both analyzed regions. However, the Drier region exhibited superior discrimination between successional stages, achieving a weighted F1-score of 0.80 compared to 0.73 in the Wetter region. When comparing the metrics from SS in different stages to MF, our findings underscore that secondary forests achieve substantial relative recovery of FWF metrics within the initial 10 years after land abandonment. Regions with potentially slower relative recovery (e.g., Drier regions) may require longer-term planning to ensure success in providing full potential ecosystem services in the Amazon