Les cobénéfices des politiques climatiques : un concept opérant pour les négociations climat ?

International audienceThis paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5th IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess cobenefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greehouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of developmentpolicies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years.Cet article 1 examine les enjeux sous-jacents à l'évaluation des cobénéfices des politiques climatiques dans le cadre de la mise en oeuvre de politiques multi-objectifs, au sein lesquelles des synergies sont recherchées entre la lutte contre le changement climatique et des objectifs de développement (emploi, santé, sortie de la pauvreté, etc.). L'analyse du cinquième rapport du groupe III du GIEC montre en effet un intérêt grandissant dans la littérature pour les évaluations quantifiées des cobénéfices, en particulier à l'aide de modèles numériques intégrés. Néanmoins, l'évaluation quantifiée à une échelle globale des cobénéfices est confrontée à des difficultés d'ordre méthodologique qui expliquent l'écart entre les pratiques des modélisateurs et la vision théorique des économistes qui repose sur l'analyse coûts-bénéfices. L'article revient enfin sur la nécessité d'élargir le champ d'investigation de l'évaluation des cobénéfices aux politiques non climatiques qui déterminent une part importante des émissions de GES, et constituent un des enjeux majeurs des approches intégrées climat-développement qui montent en puissance dans les négociations climat en cours. Abstract – Co-benefits of climate policies: a potential keystone of climate negotiations? This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5th IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess co-benefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greehouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years

Fiches argumentaires issues de l'étude "Conditions de l'émergence et impacts macroéconomiques du véhicule électrique en Europe et en Chine" - Working Paper Chaire modélisation prospective au service du développement durable (MPDD) n° 2012-01-04

Cette fiche synthétise les arguments en faveur d'un investissement précoce pour le développement de l'électrification des véhicules, qui ont été développés dans le cadre de l'étude " Vision Europe-Chine 2010-2011 ". Cette étude, menée en collaboration entre le Cired et l'Observatoire des Émergents, visait à comparer les contextes macroéconomiques et énergétiques de l'émergence de véhicules électrifiés en Europe et en Chine.Cette fiche synthétise les arguments en faveur d'un investissement précoce pour le développement de l'électrification des véhicules, qui ont été développés dans le cadre de l'étude " Vision Europe-Chine 2010-2011 ". Cette étude, menée en collaboration entre le Cired et l'Observatoire des Émergents, visait à comparer les contextes macroéconomiques et énergétiques de l'émergence de véhicules électrifiés en Europe et en Chine

From Limits to Growth to greenhouse gas emission pathways: Representing future technological change in global models (1972-2007)

International audienceFrom the World models used by the Club of Rome in the 1970s to study “the predicament of mankind” to contemporary Integrated Assessment Models producing greenhouse gas emission pathways for the IPCC, global models have served as laboratories for the articulation of economic, environmental and technological knowledge. Despite their differences, these models all rely on conceptions of technological change and innovation as drivers of the long-term evolution of human societies. Much effort and controversy has gone into modelling technological change as a quantifiable, global variable. What can the history of global modelling tell us about shifting understandings and conflicting conceptualizations of technological change and innovation in the second half of the twentieth century? In this paper, we argue that the development and confrontation of global models constituted technological change into a distinct variable and an object of research. We analyse debates on the conception, representation and formalisation of technological change as they played out at four moments in the history of global modelling: the publication of the Limits to Growth in 1972; the ensuing “futures debate” when models were developed to provide alternative futures to the Limits to Growth; the publication of the IIASA Energy Study in 1981; and discussions about the representation of technological change in Integrated Assessment Models from the late 1990s onwards, when global models turned to climate change. In these four instances, conceptions of technological change were opened up, making it possible to analyse the relations between modelling choices and the political discussions models take part in. We show that, while in the 1970s technological change was explicitly understood as a social phenomenon, its formalisation as a quantifiable parameter with its own predictable dynamic drew focus away from its relations to social change

From Limits to Growth to greenhouse gas emission pathways: Representing future technological change in global models (1972-2007)

International audienceFrom the World models used by the Club of Rome in the 1970s to study “the predicament of mankind” to contemporary Integrated Assessment Models producing greenhouse gas emission pathways for the IPCC, global models have served as laboratories for the articulation of economic, environmental and technological knowledge. Despite their differences, these models all rely on conceptions of technological change and innovation as drivers of the long-term evolution of human societies. Much effort and controversy has gone into modelling technological change as a quantifiable, global variable. What can the history of global modelling tell us about shifting understandings and conflicting conceptualizations of technological change and innovation in the second half of the twentieth century? In this paper, we argue that the development and confrontation of global models constituted technological change into a distinct variable and an object of research. We analyse debates on the conception, representation and formalisation of technological change as they played out at four moments in the history of global modelling: the publication of the Limits to Growth in 1972; the ensuing “futures debate” when models were developed to provide alternative futures to the Limits to Growth; the publication of the IIASA Energy Study in 1981; and discussions about the representation of technological change in Integrated Assessment Models from the late 1990s onwards, when global models turned to climate change. In these four instances, conceptions of technological change were opened up, making it possible to analyse the relations between modelling choices and the political discussions models take part in. We show that, while in the 1970s technological change was explicitly understood as a social phenomenon, its formalisation as a quantifiable parameter with its own predictable dynamic drew focus away from its relations to social change

From The Limits to Growth to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pathways: Technological Change in Global Computer Models (1972–2007)

International audienceFrom the World2 and World3 models to contemporary Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that model carbon neutral emission pathways, global computer models have served as virtual laboratories for addressing economic, environmental and technological concerns together. Representing technological change has been a controversial element of global modelling efforts because, to a great extent, it sets the parameters on conceivable futures. To retrace this history, this article analyses four moments when modellers debated technological change: the controversy spurred by The Limits to Growth in the 1970s; subsequent global future studies during that decade; the IIASA Energy in a Finite World study in the 1980s; and the shift to endogenous technological change in IAMs in the 2000s. It shows that the notion of technological change as a predictable parameter affecting the future of society was not a given. Technological change progressively became a parameter in models as more elaborate methodologies were developed to simulate it. When modellers began to focus on climate action in the 1990s and 2000s, their interest in the relationship between technological change and social change dwindled. The increasing skill with which modellers formally represented technological dynamics was commensurate to the decline of heated discussions over how conflicting worldviews shaped simulations

De l' Airbus A380 au site néolithique de la "Table des Marchands" (Morbihan) : limites et perspectives d'un transfert de technologie

International audienceWith the utilisation of the laser 3D, we can discuss, through scans of the Airbus A380 to the Neolithic site of the “Table des Marchands“, perspectives and limits of a technology transfer from the industry to the archaeology, and difficulties of a dialogue between the representation’s constraints of archaeologists and economics imperatives of industrials.On peut discuter grâce au scanner 3D utilisé au niveau de l’Airbus A380 jusqu’au site Néolithique “la table des Marchands“ des perspectives et limites du transfert de technologies de l’industrie à l’archéologie et des difficultés de dialogue entre les contraintes de représentation en archéologie et les impératifs économiques de l’industrie