Calibrationof DNI ensemble forecasts with quantile regression

Presentación realizada para la conferencia "ICEM 2019", celebrada en Copenhague en junio de 2019.A lo largo de esta presentación se explican los resultados obtenidos al aplicar un algoritmo de regresión por cuantiles para calibrar la predicción por conjuntos de radiación directa del ECMWF, y se compara además con predicciones de gSREPS.This Project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654984

Indirect verification of 100m winds through measurements of electric power in wind farms

Presentación realizada para el workshop "Using ECMWF's forecasts (UEF 2016)" celebrado en Reading en junio de 201

Predicción de radiación solar por medio de la combinación de modelos meteorológicos y técnicas de postproceso estadístico

Presentación realizada para un seminario de la Cátedra de Ciencia de Datos y Aprendizaje Automático de la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, celebrado en el Instituto de Ingeniería del Conocimiento (UAM-IIC) en marzo de 2019.En esta presentación se explican los problemas a los que se enfrentan las predicciones de energías renovables debidos a su componente meteorológica, y posibles métodos de postproceso que pueden ayudar a mejorarlas

AEMIX: semantic verification of weather forecasts on the web

Ponencia presentada en: 12th International Conference on Web Information Systems and Technologies celebrada en Roma del 23 al 25 de abril de 2016The main objectives of a meteorological service are the development, implementation and delivery of weather forecasts. Weather predictions are broadcasted to society through different channels, i.e. newspaper, television, radio, etc. Today, the use of theWeb through personal computers and mobile devices stands out. The forecasts, which can be presented in numerical format, in charts, or in written natural language, have a certain margin of error. Providing automatic tools able to assess the precision of predictions allows to improve these forecasts, quantify the degree of success depending on certain variables (geographic areas, weather conditions, time of year, etc.), and focus future work on areas for improvement that increase such accuracy. Despite technological advances, the task of verifying forecasts written in natural language is still performed manually by people in many cases, which is expensive, time-consuming, and subjected to human errors. On the other hand, weather forecasts usually follow several conventions in both structure and use of language, which, while not completely formal, can be exploited to increase the quality of the verification. In this paper, we describe a methodology to quantify the accuracy of weather forecasts posted on the Web and based on natural language. This work obtains relevant information from weather forecasts by using ontologies to capture and take advantage of the structure and language conventions. This approach is implemented in a framework that allows to address different types of predictions with minimal effort. Experimental results with real data are promising, and most importantly, they allow direct use in a real meteorological service.This research work has been supported by the CICYT project TIN2013-46238-C4-4-R, and DGAFS

Impact of atmospheric aerosols on solar radiation forecast

Comunicación presentada en el 3rd Iberian Meeting on Aerosol Science and Technology, del 29 de junio al 1 de julio de 2015.-- http://seneca.umh.es/ricta2015

Use of direct radiation forecasts to improve the reliability of solar thermal energy

Presentación realizada en: Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2018), celebrada del 5 al 8 de junio de 2018 en Reading (Inglaterra).Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is one of the two main techniques employed to harness the energy from the Sun. It has the distinctive advantage of being able to store energy, using it subsequently when needed (for example, at night). PreFlexMS project (www.preflexms.eu) aims to extend the flexibility of CSP to daytime, storing energy when it is sunny and dispatching it when it is cloudy. Forecasts from two meteorological models, the global IFS and the local area model Arome-Harmonie, have been used as inputs to help the CSP plant to decide the optimal schedule to follow. Both models have been verified against observations from AEMET Radiation Network to estimate their reliability, within the framework of PreFlexMS project. In this talk results will be shown (see attached figures) for the period studied, from March 2015 to February 2018. Another related project, done jointly with Red Electrica, the Spanish Transmission System Operator (TSO) will be also explained in this presentation. A combination of ECMWF radiation forecasts and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts has been used to improve solar power predictions for days with high aerosol content. Although aerosols don't affect scores significantly when averaged for a long period, it will be shown their huge impact in some events, and how our method can reduce the forecasting error

A postprocessing methodology for direct normal irradiance forecasting using cloud information and aerosol load forecasts

A method for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasting for specific sites is proposed. It is based on the combination of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, which provides cloud information, with radiative transfer simulations fed with external aerosol forecasts. The NWP model used is the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System, and the radiative transfer information has been obtained from the Library of Radiative Transfer (libRadtran). Two types of aerosol forecasts have been tested: the global Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) model, which predicts five major components of aerosols, and the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (BSC-DREAM8b) added to a fixed background calculated as the 20th percentile of the monthly mean of AERONET 2.0 observations from a different year. The methodology employed is valid for all meteorological situations, providing a stable and continuous DNI curve. The performance of the combined method has been evaluated against DNI observations and compared with the pure ECMWF forecasts at eight locations in the southern half of mainland Spain and the Canary Islands, which received high loadings of African dust for 2013 and 2014. Results for 1-day forecasts are presented. Although clouds play a major role, aerosols have a significant effect, but at shorter time scales. The combination of ECMWF and MACC forecasts gives the best global results, improving the DNI forecasts in events with high aerosol content. The regional BSC-DREAM8b yields good results for some extremely high dust conditions, although more reliable predictions, valid for any aerosol conditions, are provided by the MACC model.The authors acknowledge the libRadtran developers for their radiative transfer tools used in this work and ECMWF for their forecasts. We thank the MACC project, funded by the European Commission under the EU-Horizon 2020 Programme and coordinated by the ECMWF, for their AOD data, freely available on its website (http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/)

Molecular characterization and clinical impact of TMPRSS2-ERG rearrangement on prostate cancer: comparison between FISH and RT-PCR

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a very heterogeneous disease, and there are constraints in its current diagnosis. Serum PSA levels, digital rectal examination (DRE), and histopathologic analysis often drive to overdiagnosis and overtreatment. Since 2005, the presence of the genetic rearrangement between transmembrane-serine protease gene (TMPRSS2) and the erythroblast transformation-specific (ETS)member ERG (v-ets erythroblastosis virus E26 oncogene homolog avian) has been demonstrated in almost half of PCa cases. Both FISH and RT-PCR are useful tools for detecting these rearrangements, but very few comparatives between both techniques have been published. In this study, we included FFPE tumors from 294 PCa patients treated with radical prostatectomy with more than 5 years of followup.We constructed a total of 20 tissue microarrays in order to perform break-apart and tricolor probe FISH approaches that were compared with RT-PCR, showing a concordance of 80.6% ( P < 0.001). The presence of TMPRSS2-ERG rearrangement was observed in 56.6% of cases. No association between TMPRSS2-ERG status and clinicopathological parameters nor biochemical progression and clinical progression free survival was found. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that both FISH and RT-PCR are useful tools in the assessment of the TMPRSS2-ERG fusion gene status in PCa patients and that this genetic feature per se lacks prognostic value.This study has been funded by the Grants FIS PI06/01619 and PI10/01206 from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, ACOMP 12/029 from the Generalitat Valenciana, Valencia, and Astra Zeneca, Spain

Verificación y postproceso de predicciones de radiación solar directa para su uso en centrales termosolares

Ponencia presentada en: VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción, celebrado en los servicios centrales de AEMET, en Madrid, del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018.En esta ponencia se expondrán varios trabajos realizados por AEMET, en colaboración con REE (Red Eléctrica Española), CENER (Centro Nacional de Energías Renovables) y DLR (German Aerospace Center) para la validación y mejora de la predicción de la energía solar utilizando las salidas de los modelos meteorológicos que emplea la Agencia. El proyecto PreFlexMS (Predictable and Flexible Molten Salt plant, www.preflexms.eu), financiado por el programa europeo H2020, tiene como objetivo crear una planta de concentración solar (CSP) piloto que pueda adaptarse a los cambios en la radiación directa incidente gracias a predicciones de modelos numéricos y a su sistema de almacenamiento con sales fundidas. El objetivo de nuestro trabajo ha sido validar la fiabilidad y la exactitud de las salidas de radiación directa normal (DNI) de estos modelos para alimentar el sistema de producción de las plantas solares. Por otra parte, en el marco de la colaboración con REE, se ha desarrollado un postproceso para la predicción de DNI en las localizaciones de las centrales termosolares y fotovoltaicas en España que tiene en cuenta los cambios de radiación solar debidos a los aerosoles. Se basa en la combinación del modelo numérico de predicción IFS del ECMWF, que proporciona la información sobre la nubosidad, junto al modelo de transferencia radiativa libRadTran, y el modelo de predicción de contenido de aerosoles MACC (ahora CAMS). Se expondrán los primeros resultados de ambos proyectos y se analizará la posibilidad de utilizarlos en un entorno operativo

Validación y mejora de las salidas numéricas de radiación solar para su uso en la producción de energía solar

Ponencia presentada en: XXXV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIX Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en León, del 5 al 7 de marzo de 2018.En los últimos años, ha aumentado el interés por mejorar la producción de las plantas operativas de energía solar a través de la mejora de la predicción meteorológica de la radiación solar. Esta predicción se realiza a partir de los valores suministrados por la modelización numérica del tiempo. En esta ponencia se expondrán varios trabajos realizados por AEMET, en colaboración con REE (Red Eléctrica Española), CENER (Centro Nacional de Energías Renovables) y DLR (German Aerospace Center) para la validación y mejora de la predicción de la energía solar utilizando las salidas de los modelos meteorológicos que emplea la Agencia