The myth of dangerous human-caused climate change

Human-caused global warming has become the environmental cause celebre of the early 21st century. The strong warming alarmist camp currently includes the United Nations, most Western governments, most of the free press, many large corporations (including Enron, before it failed), the major churches, most scientific organisations and a large portion of general public opinion. This phalanx of support notwithstanding there is no scientific consensus as to the danger of human-induced climate change. There is, therefore, a strong conflict between the level of public alarm and its scientific justification. How can this be? In a democracy, the media serve to convey to the public the facts and hypotheses of climate change as provided by individual scientists, governmental and international research agencies, and NGO and other lobby groups. In general, the media have promulgated an alarmist cause for climate change; they have certainly failed to convey the degree of uncertainty that is characteristic of climate science, or a balanced summary of the many essential facts that are relevant to human causation. Climate change is as much a geological as it is a meteorological issue. Natural climate changes, both warmings and coolings, are indeed a societal hazard. We usually deal with geological hazards by providing civil defence authorities and the public with accurate, evidence-based, general information about events like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and floods, and then by adapting to the effects when a damaging event occurs. As for other major natural disasters, the appropriate preparation for extreme climate events is to mitigate and manage the negative effects when they occur, and especially so for dangerous coolings. Attempting instead to ‘stop climate change’ by reducing human carbon dioxide emissions is a costly exercise of utter futility. Rational climate policies must be based on adaptation to dangerous change as and when it occurs, and irrespective of its sign or causation. The issue now is no longer climate change as such, the reality of which will always be with us. Rather, the issues are, first, the failure of the free press to inform the public about the true facts of human-caused climate change and of the dangers posed by natural climate change. And, second, the vested interests held by many of the groups of warming alarmists. These interests include not only the obvious commercial ones, but also the many scientists and science managers who have discounted or remained silent about the huge uncertainties of the human-caused global warming hypothesis because it suited them to do so. Public opinion will soon demand an explanation as to why experienced editors and hardened investigative journalists, worldwide, have melted before the blowtorch of self-induced guilt, political correctness and special interest expediency that marks the sophisms of global warming alarmists

Cosmic Vortons and Particle Physics Constraints

We investigate the cosmological consequences of particle physics theories that admit stable loops of superconducting cosmic string - {\it vortons}. General symmetry breaking schemes are considered, in which strings are formed at one energy scale and subsequently become superconducting in a secondary phase transition at what may be a considerably lower energy scale. We estimate the abundances of the ensuing vortons, and thereby derive constraints on the relevant particle physics models from cosmological observations. These constraints significantly restrict the category of admissible Grand Unified theories, but are quite compatible with recently proposed effects whereby superconducting strings may have been formed close to the electroweak phase transition.Comment: 33 pages, 2 figures, RevTe

Global Extensions of Spacetimes Describing Asymptotic Final States of Black Holes

We consider a globally hyperbolic, stationary spacetime containing a black hole but no white hole. We assume, further, that the event horizon, \tn, of the black hole is a Killing horizon with compact cross-sections. We prove that if surface gravity is non-zero constant throughout the horizon one can {\it globally} extend such a spacetime so that the image of $\cal N$ is a proper subset of a regular bifurcate Killing horizon in the enlarged spacetime. The necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the extendibility of matter fields to the enlarged spacetime. These conditions are automatically satisfied if the spacetime is static (and, hence ``$t$"-reflection symmetric) or stationary-axisymmetric with ``$t-\phi$" reflection isometry and the matter fields respect the reflection isometry. In addition, we prove that a necessary and sufficient condition for the constancy of the surface gravity on a Killing horizon is that the exterior derivative of the twist of the horizon Killing field vanish on the horizon. As a corollary of this, we recover a result of Carter that constancy of surface gravity holds for any black hole which is static or stationary- axisymmetric with the ``$t-\phi$" reflection isometry. No use of Einstein's equation is made in obtaining any of the above results. Taken together, these results support the view that any spacetime representing the asymptotic final state of a black hole formed by gravitational collapse may be assumed to possess a bifurcate Killing horizon or a Killing horizon with vanishing surface gravity.Comment: 20 pages, plain te

Undecided/Undeclared: Working with Deciding Students

Nationally, it is estimated that 77 percent of all freshmen and sophomores are in the process of deciding on an academic major (Rayman, 1993). The student body at University of Missouri - Columbia (MU) is no exception. In addition, a number of students have chosen majors, but for the wrong reasons: My parents want me to be a . . . , I must have a major in order to get good academic advising . . . , I have to choose a major or I can\u27t register . . . , Everyone else has a major . . . , etc. These negative connotations of being undecided led the Career Center (CPPC) to view this population from a more positive point of view. CPPC wants students to feel that it is not only okay, but normal to be deciding and most importantly to realize that he/she is not alone

Assessing cost-effectiveness in obesity : active transport program for primary school children— TravelSMART schools curriculum program

Background: To assess from a societal perspective the cost-effectiveness of a school program to increase active transport in 10- to 11-year-old Australian children as an obesity prevention measure. Methods: The TravelSMART Schools Curriculum program was modeled nationally for 2001 in terms of its impact on Body Mass Index (BMI) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) measured against current practice. Cost offsets and DALY benefits were modeled until the eligible cohort reached age 100 or died. The intervention was qualitatively assessed against second stage filter criteria (&lsquo;equity,&rsquo; &lsquo;strength of evidence,&rsquo; &lsquo;acceptability to stakeholders,&rsquo; &lsquo;feasibility of implementation,&rsquo; &lsquo;sustainability,&rsquo; and &lsquo;side-effects&rsquo;) given their potential impact on funding decisions. Results: The modeled intervention reached 267,700 children and cost $AUD13.3M (95$6.9M; $22.8M) per year. It resulted in an incremental saving of 890 (95$AUD117,000 (95% UI dominated; $1.06M). Conclusions: The intervention was not cost-effective as an obesity prevention measure under base-run modeling assumptions. The attribution of some costs to nonobesity objectives would be justified given the program&rsquo;s multiple benefits. Cost-effectiveness would be further improved by considering the wider school community impacts.<br /

The effect of processing parameters on particle size in ammonia-induced precipitation of zirconyl chloride under industrially relevant conditions

The effect of pH of precipitation, starting solution concentration, and agitation levels on the particle size of hydrous zirconia precipitates have been investigated. It was found that all three variables affect the particle size of the hydrous zirconia. The smallest particle size is produced by a 0.81 M starting solution, precipitated at pH 12 with a high agitation level. The pH of precipitation was also found to have a significant impact on the type of hydrous zirconia produced. TGA/DTA, micro combustion and TEM / EDS were used to investigate the difference in the powders produced at pH 3 and 12. This work suggests that powders produced at pH 3 will have a structure similar to Zr[OH]4 whilst those at pH 12 are more likely ZrO[OH]2. XRD and micro-combustion suggest that the powders produced at pH 3 retained ammonium chloride whilst those produced at pH 12 did not. The filtration rates for the pH 3 product were significantly faster than that of the powders made at pH 12 which is significant in the industrial production of these materials