Patterns and rules for sensitivity and elasticity in population projection matrices

Sensitivity and elasticity analysis of population projection matrices (PPMs) are established tools in the analysis of structured populations, allowing comparison of the contributions made by different demographic rates to population growth. In some commonly used structures of PPM, however, there are mathematically inevitable patterns in the relative sensitivity and elasticity of certain demographic rates. We take a simulation approach to investigate these mathematical constraints for a range of PPM models. Our results challenge some previously proposed constraints on sensitivity and elasticity. We also identify constraints beyond those which have already been proven mathematically, and promote them as candidates for future mathematical proof. A general theme among these rules is that changes to the demographic rates of older or larger individuals have less impact on population growth than do equivalent changes among younger or smaller individuals. However, the validity of these rules in each case depends on the choice between sensitivity and elasticity, the growth rate of the population and the PPM structure used. If the structured population conforms perfectly to the assumptions of the PPM used to model it, the rules we describe represent biological reality, allowing us to prioritise management strategies in the absence of detailed demographic data. Conversely, if the model is a poor fit to the population (specifically; if demographic rates within stages are heterogeneous) such analyses could lead to inappropriate management prescriptions. Our results emphasise the importance of choosing a structured population model which fits the demographics of the population

Being overweight in early adulthood is associated with increased mortality in middle age

Observational analyses of the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality often suggest that overweight is neutral or beneficial, but such analyses are potentially confounded by smoking or by reverse causation. The use of BMI measured in early adulthood offers one means of reducing the latter problem. We used a cohort who were first measured while 16–24 year old students at Glasgow University in 1948–1968 and subsequently re-measured in 2000–2003, offering a rare opportunity to compare BMI measured at different ages as a predictor of mortality. Analysis of the later BMI measurements suggested that overweight was beneficial to survival, while analysis of BMI measured in early adulthood suggested that overweight was harmful and that the optimum BMI lay towards the lower end of the recommended range of 18.5–25 kg m(−2). We interpret the association with later BMI as being probably distorted by reverse causality, although it remains possible instead that the optimum BMI increases with age. Differences when analyses were restricted to healthy non-smokers also suggested some residual confounding by smoking. These results suggest that analyses of BMI recorded in middle or old age probably over-estimate the optimum BMI for survival and should be treated with caution

A comparison between omeprazole and a dietary supplement for the management of squamous gastric ulceration in horses

Although several studies have assessed the short-term effect of dietary supplements on the treatment and prevention of gastric ulceration in horses, few have assessed the response over a duration of more than 30 days. A blinded randomized noninferiority clinical trial was conducted using 42 Thoroughbred horses in race training with squamous ulceration of ≥ grade 2/4, randomly assigned to one of two treatment groups for a period of 90 days: omeprazole at the full label dose of 4 mg/kg or the Succeed digestive conditioning supplement. Noninferiority analyses and Wilcoxon sign rank tests were used to analyze the data. At day 90, Succeed was noninferior to 4 mg/kg omeprazole administered daily in terms of the proportion of horses with complete resolution of squamous ulceration. At day 30, Succeed was found to be inferior to omeprazole in terms of the proportion of horses with grade ≤1/4 squamous ulceration. The proportion of horses with reducing squamous ulcer score (compared with day 0) was statistically significant for both treatments at days 30 and 60. At day 90 of the 17 horses on Succeed, nine had a reducing squamous ulcer score (P value = .049), and of the 19 horses on omeprazole, 10 had a reducing squamous ulcer score at day 90 (P value = .091). The noninferiority of Succeed compared to omeprazole at 90 days for the complete resolution of squamous ulceration and the reduced efficacy of omeprazole following 90 days of treatment are likely to be of interest to practitioners managing gastric ulceration in performance horses

Associations of parental age with health and social factors in adult offspring. Methodological pitfalls and possibilities

Parental age is increasing rapidly in many countries. Analysis of this potentially important influence on offspring well-being is hampered by strong secular trends and socioeconomic patterning and by a shortage of follow-up data for adult offspring. We used Swedish national data on up to 3,653,938 offspring to consider the associations of parental age with a suite of outcomes in adult offspring, comparing the results from an array of statistical methods for optimal causal inference. The offspring of older mothers had higher BMI, blood pressure, height, intelligence, non-cognitive ability and socioeconomic position. They were less likely to smoke or to be left-handed. Associations with paternal age were strongly, but not completely, attenuated by adjustment for maternal age. Estimates from the commonly-used sibling comparison method were driven primarily by a pathway mediated by offspring date of birth when outcomes showed strong secular trends. These results suggest that the intra-uterine and early life environments provided by older mothers may be detrimental to offspring cardiovascular health, but that their greater life experience and social position may bring intellectual and social advantages to their offspring. The analysis of parental age presents particular challenges, and further methodological developments are needed

Association of physical activity intensity and bout length with mortality:An observational study of 79,503 UK Biobank participants

BACKGROUND: Spending more time active (and less sedentary) is associated with health benefits such as improved cardiovascular health and lower risk of all-cause mortality. It is unclear whether these associations differ depending on whether time spent sedentary or in moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is accumulated in long or short bouts. In this study, we used a novel method that accounts for substitution (i.e., more time in MVPA means less time sleeping, in light activity or sedentary) to examine whether length of sedentary and MVPA bouts associates with all-cause mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data on 79,503 adult participants from the population-based UK Biobank cohort, which recruited participants between 2006 and 2010 (mean age at accelerometer wear 62.1 years [SD = 7.9], 54.5% women; mean length of follow-up 5.1 years [SD = 0.73]). We derived (1) the total time participants spent in activity categories—sleep, sedentary, light activity, and MVPA—on average per day; (2) time spent in sedentary bouts of short (1 to 15 minutes), medium (16 to 40 minutes), and long (41+ minutes) duration; and (3) MVPA bouts of very short (1 to 9 minutes), short (10 to 15 minutes), medium (16 to 40 minutes), and long (41+ minutes) duration. We used Cox proportion hazards regression to estimate the association of spending 10 minutes more average daily time in one activity or bout length category, coupled with 10 minutes less time in another, with all-cause mortality. Those spending more time in MVPA had lower mortality risk, irrespective of whether this replaced time spent sleeping, sedentary, or in light activity, and these associations were of similar magnitude (e.g., hazard ratio [HR] 0.96 [95% CI: 0.94, 0.97; P < 0.001] per 10 minutes more MVPA, coupled with 10 minutes less light activity per day). Those spending more time sedentary had higher mortality risk if this replaced light activity (HR 1.02 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.02; P < 0.001] per 10 minutes more sedentary time, with 10 minutes less light activity per day) and an even higher risk if this replaced MVPA (HR 1.06 [95% CI: 1.05, 1.08; P < 0.001] per 10 minutes more sedentary time, with 10 minutes less MVPA per day). We found little evidence that mortality risk differed depending on the length of sedentary or MVPA bouts. Key limitations of our study are potential residual confounding, the limited length of follow-up, and use of a select sample of the United Kingdom population. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that time spent in MVPA was associated with lower mortality, irrespective of whether it replaced time spent sleeping, sedentary, or in light activity. Time spent sedentary was associated with higher mortality risk, particularly if it replaced MVPA. This emphasises the specific importance of MVPA. Our findings suggest that the impact of MVPA does not differ depending on whether it is obtained from several short bouts or fewer longer bouts, supporting the recent removal of the requirement that MVPA should be accumulated in bouts of 10 minutes or more from the UK and the United States policy. Further studies are needed to investigate causality and explore health outcomes beyond mortality

Birth weight in offspring and cardiovascular mortality in their parents, aunts and uncles:a family-based cohort study of 1.35 million births

Background A link between suboptimal fetal growth and higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well documented. It has been difficult to assess the contribution of environmental versus genetic factors to the association, as these factors are closely connected in nuclear families. We investigated the association between offspring birthweight and CVD mortality in parents, aunts and uncles, and examined whether these associations are explained by CVD risk factors. Methods We linked Norwegian data from the Medical Birth Registry, the Cause of Death Registry and cardiovascular surveys. A total of 1 353 956 births (1967–2012) were linked to parents and one maternal and one paternal aunt/uncle. Offspring birthweight and CVD mortality association among all relationships was assessed by hazard ratios (HR) from Cox regressions. The influence of CVD risk factors on the associations was examined in a subgroup. Results Offspring birthweight was inversely associated with CVD mortality among parents and aunts/uncles. HR of CVD mortality for one standard deviation (SD) increase in offspring birthweight was 0.72 (0.69–0.75) in mothers and 0.89 (0.86–0.92) in fathers. In aunts/uncles, the HRs were between 0.90 (0.86–0.95) and 0.93 (0.91–0.95). Adjustment for CVD risk factors in a subgroup attenuated all the associations. Conclusions Birthweight was associated with increased risk of CVD in parents and in aunts/uncles. These associations were largely explained by CVD risk factors. Our findings suggest that associations between offspring birthweight and CVD in adult relatives involve both behavioural variables (especially smoking) and shared genetics relating to established CVD risk factors.publishedVersio

Teacher professional development for disability inclusion in low- and middle-income Asia-Pacific countries: An evidence and gap map

In the Asia‐Pacific region, around one‐third of the children who are out‐of‐school have a disability and given that teacher readiness and capability are key contributors for inclusive education, it is high time for a mapping of disability inclusive teacher professional development (TPD) interventions in this region. The key objective of this evidence and gap map (EGM) is to locate evidence on interventions for in‐service TPD focussing on education for the inclusion of students with a disability in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) in the Asia‐Pacific region. A broad range of bibliographic databases and repositories were searched electronically to identify the evidence published between January 2000 and December 2021. Key search platforms included the British Education Index (BEI), Education Research Complete (ERC), Education Resources Information Center (ERIC), SCOPUS, 3ie Development Evidence Portal (Evidence Hub) and the Campbell Collaborations Systematic Reviews and EGMs portal (Better evidence for a better world). In addition, potential program evaluations/impact reports, reviews, case studies, and program descriptions/summaries were sought through ‘snowballing’ based on searching bibliographies and reference lists of papers located during the search process, as well as specific searches of relevant grey literature. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to contain sufficient details about TPD interventions that support early childhood educators and kindergarten to Year 12 teachers to understand the needs of students with disabilities and aid them to create inclusive mainstream classrooms and/or provide improved support for students with disabilities in special education settings. A total of 820 records were entered into the MS Excel file in which the entire data extraction process was managed. All records were screened against the predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers and any differences were resolved through consultations. All included studies and their characteristics were extracted from the MS Excel file and uploaded to the ACER server in.csv file format. The interactive, online EGM is available here: https://datavis.acer.org/gem/disability-inclusion-TPD/. Fifty studies from 16 countries out of the 41 LMICs in the Asia‐Pacific region were identified, whereby Thailand had the largest number of studies with evidence (7) followed by China, Vietnam, and India (5 each). Two main gaps in research about professional learning were identified. First, only three studies reported interventions aimed at supporting mental health among students with a disability. Second, no studies were found that reported on how teachers could support positive student behaviour. These gaps are important because research has persistently suggested that experiencing disability is an important risk factor for young people developing mental health conditions. This report illustrates the critical value of evaluating and publishing evidence from disability inclusive TPD interventions in LMICs, including any that are ongoing, or are components of highly resource intensive large‐scale education sector programs

Blood pressure and mortality:using offspring blood pressure as an instrument for own blood pressure in the HUNT study

Given that observational associations may be inaccurate, we used offspring blood pressure (BP) to provide alternative estimates of the associations between own BP and mortality. Observational associations between BP and mortality, estimated as hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox regression, were compared to HRs obtained using offspring BP as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BP (N = 32,227 mother-offspring and 27,535 father-offspring pairs). Observationally, there were positive associations between own BP and mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and diabetes. Point estimates of the associations between BP and mortality from all-causes, CVD and CHD were amplified in magnitude when using offspring BP as an IV. For example, the HR for all-cause mortality per standard deviation (SD) increase in own systolic BP (SBP) obtained in conventional observational analyses increased from 1.10 (95% CI: 1.09–1.12; P < 0.0001) to 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19–1.43; P < 0.0001). Additionally, SBP was positively associated with diabetes and cancer mortality (HRs: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.12–3.35; P = 0.02 and 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02–1.42; P = 0.03, respectively) and diastolic BP (DBP) with stroke mortality (HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.02–1.66; P = 0.03). Results support positive associations between BP and mortality from all-causes, CVD and CHD, SBP on cancer mortality and DBP on stroke mortality