Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Contaminant Travel Times from the Upgradient Nevada Test Site to the Yucca Mountain Area

Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, has been proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy as the nation’s first permanent geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and highlevel radioactive waste. In this study, the potential for groundwater advective pathways from underground nuclear testing areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) to intercept the subsurface of the proposed land withdrawal area for the repository is investigated. The timeframe for advective travel and its uncertainty for possible radionuclide movement along these flow pathways is estimated as a result of effective-porosity value uncertainty for the hydrogeologic units (HGUs) along the flow paths. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most influential HGUs on the advective radionuclide travel times from the NTS to the YM area. Groundwater pathways are obtained using the particle tracking package MODPATH and flow results from the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Effectiveporosity values for HGUs along these pathways are one of several parameters that determine possible radionuclide travel times between the NTS and proposed YM withdrawal areas. Values and uncertainties of HGU porosities are quantified through evaluation of existing site effective-porosity data and expert professional judgment and are incorporated in the model through Monte Carlo simulations to estimate mean travel times and uncertainties. The simulations are based on two steady-state flow scenarios, the pre-pumping (the initial stress period of the DVRFS model), and the 1998 pumping (assuming steady-state conditions resulting from pumping in the last stress period of the DVRFS model) scenarios for the purpose of long-term prediction and monitoring. The pumping scenario accounts for groundwater withdrawal activities in the Amargosa Desert and other areas downgradient of YM. Considering each detonation in a clustered region around Pahute Mesa (in the NTS operational areas 18, 19, 20, and 30) under the water table as a particle, those particles from the saturated zone detonations were tracked forward using MODPATH to identify hydraulically downgradient groundwater discharge zones and to determine the particles from which detonations will intercept the proposed YM withdrawal area. Out of the 71 detonations in the saturated zone, the flowpaths from 23 of the 71 detonations will intercept the proposed YM withdrawal area under the pre-pumping scenario. For the 1998 pumping scenario, the flowpaths from 55 of the 71 detonations will intercept the proposed YM withdrawal area. Three different effective-porosity data sets compiled in support of regional models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport developed for the NTS and the proposed YM repository are used. The results illustrate that mean minimum travel time from underground nuclear testing areas on the NTS to the proposed YM repository area can vary from just over 700 to nearly 700,000 years, depending on the locations of the underground detonations, the pumping scenarios considered, and the effective-porosity value distributions used. Groundwater pumping scenarios are found to significantly impact minimum particle travel time from the NTS to the YM area by altering flowpath geometry. Pumping also attracts many more additional groundwater flowpaths from the NTS to the YM area. The sensitivity analysis further illustrates that for both the pre-pumping and 1998 pumping scenarios, the uncertainties in effective-porosity values for five of the 27 HGUs considered account for well over 90 percent of the effective-porosity-related travel time uncertainties for the flowpaths having the shortest mean travel times to YM

Evaluating The Impacts Of Uncertainty In Geomorphic Channel- Changes On Predicting Mercury Transport And Fate In The Carson River System, Nevada

The Carson River is one of the most mercury-contaminated fluvial systems in North America. Most of its mercury is affiliated with channel bank material and floodplain deposits, with the movement of mercury through this system being highly dependent on bank erosion and sediment transport processes. Mercury transport is simulated using three computer models: RIVMOD, WASP5, and MERC4. Model improvements include the addition of a bank package that accounts for flow history. The rates at which river stages are rising or falling will, in turn, impart time-dependant and vertically variable MeHg concentrations within the channel banks along the Carson River. Also, Lahontan Reservoir’s geomorphic characteristics have been refined along with the explicit tracking of a temporally and spatially varying colloidal fraction. The augmented and refined modeling approach results in more accurate and realistic simulation of mercury transport and fate. An extensive uncertainty analysis, involving characterizing the co-variance of two calibration parameters used to define bank erosion and overbank deposition, will define the degree of expected variation in model predictions relative to limitations posed by available field data

Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Withdrawal from Proposed Pumping Near the Southeastern Nevada Test Site

Current modeling of the southeastern portion of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) with a refined U.S. Geological Survey Death Valley regional groundwater flow system model shows that impacts from pumping by proposed Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) and Vidler Water Company (VWC) wells can be substantial over 75 years of operation. Results suggest that significant drawdown at proposed well sites will occur with depths of drawdown ranging from 8 m to nearly 1,600 m. The areal extent of 0.5 m of drawdown is also significant, impacting Mercury Valley, Amargosa, Indian Springs, Three Lakes, and Frenchman Flat basins. Drawdown will impact Army No.1 Water Well in Mercury Valley by lowering water levels 2.1 m but will not impact other NTS production wells. It is also predicted that flowpaths from detonation sites within the NTS will be altered with the potential to move material out of the NTS. Impacts to both springs and regions of groundwater evapotranspiration (modeled as MODFLOW drain cells) appear very minimal, with an estimated 0.2-percent reduction in flow to these regions. This amounts to a loss of more that 55,000 m3/year (45 acre-ft/year), or more than 4,000,000 m3 (3,400 acre-ft) during 75 years of groundwater withdrawal by pumping at proposed SNWA and VWC wells. Whether the reduced flow will impact specific springs more than any others, or if the reduction in flow is enough to have significant ecological implications, was not addressed in this study

Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Withdrawal within the Mercury Valley Administrative Groundwater Basin, Nevada

A detailed, transient, three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater flow model was created for the Mercury Valley Administrative Groundwater Basin (MVB). The MVB is a distinct groundwater basin as defined by the State of Nevada and is located partially within the boundary of the Nevada Test Site. This basin is being studied as a potential location for new industrial facilities and therefore would be subject to Nevada water-use limitations. The MVB model was used to estimate the volume of water that could be withdrawn from Mercury Valley without inducing laterally or vertically extensive water-table effects. In each model simulation, water-table drawdown was limited to a maximum of 0.5 m at the boundary of the basin and held within the screened interval of the well. Water withdrawal from Nevada groundwater basins is also limited to the State-defined perennial yield for that area. The perennial yield for the MVB is 27,036 m{sup 3}/day. The one existing water-supply well in Mercury Valley is capable of sustaining significantly higher withdrawal rates than it currently produces. Simulations showed this single well could produce 50 percent of the basin?s perennial yield with limited water-table drawdown. Pumping from six hypothetical water-supply wells was also simulated. Each hypothetical well was placed in an area of high hydraulic conductivity and far from the basin's boundaries. Each of these wells was capable of producing at least 50 percent of the basin's perennial yield. One of the hypothetical wells could simulate 100 percent of the perennial yield while staying within drawdown limitations. Multi-well simulations where two or more water-supply wells were simultaneously pumping were also conducted. These simulations almost always resulted in very limited lateral and vertical drawdown and produced 100 percent of Mercury Valley's perennial yield. A water-budget analysis was also conducted for each of the various stress simulations. Each of the stress scenarios was compared to a baseline scenario where existing water-supply wells in the model domain were pumped at 2003-2004 average pumping rates. Water-budget analyses showed increased flow from the constant-head boundaries on the north, east, and west sides of the model. Flow to the southern, head-dependent boundary and to springs in the Ash Meadows area remained unchanged

Prairie wetland complexes as landscape functional units in a changing climate

The wetland complex is the functional ecological unit of the prairie pothole region (PPR) of central North America. Diverse complexes of wetlands contribute high spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity, productivity, and biodiversity to these glaciated prairie landscapes. Climate-warming simulations using the new model WETLANDSCAPE (WLS) project major reductions in water volume, shortening of hydroperiods, and less-dynamic vegetation for prairie wetland complexes. The WLS model portrays the future PPR as a much less resilient ecosystem: The western PPR will be too dry and the eastern PPR will have too few functional wetlands and nesting habitat to support historic levels of waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. Maintaining ecosystem goods and services at current levels in a warmer climate will be a major challenge for the conservation community

A Tale of Two Catchments: Causality Analysis and Isotope Systematics Reveal Mountainous Watershed Traits That Regulate the Retention and Release of Nitrogen

Mountainous watersheds are characterized by variability in functional traits, including vegetation, topography, geology, and geomorphology, which determine nitrogen (N) retention, and release. Coal Creek and East River are two contrasting catchments within the Upper Colorado River Basin that differ markedly in total nitrate (NO3−) export. The East River has a diverse vegetation cover, and sinuous floodplains, and is underlain by N-rich marine shale. At 0.21 ± 0.14 kg ha−1 yr−1, the East River exports ∼3.5 times more NO3− relative to the conifer-dominated Coal Creek (0.06 ± 0.02 kg ha−1 yr−1). While this can partly be explained by the larger size of the East River, the distinct watershed traits of these two catchments imply different mechanisms controlling the aggregate N-export signal. A causality analysis shows physical and biogenic processes were critical in determining NO3− export from the East River catchment. Stable isotope ratios of NO3− (δ15NNO3 and δ18ONO3) show the East River catchment is a strong hotspot for biogeochemical processing of NO3− at the hillslope soil-saprolite. By contrast, the conifer-dominated Coal Creek retained nearly all atmospherically deposited NO3−, and its export was controlled by catchment hydrological traits (i.e., snowmelt periods and water table depth). The conservative N-cycle within Coal Creek is likely due to the abundance of conifer trees, and smaller riparian regions, retaining more NO3− overall and reduced processing prior to export. This study highlights the value of integrating isotope systematics to link watershed functional traits to mechanisms of watershed element retention and release