Estimating the gap between demand and supply of medical appointments by physicians for hypertension care: A pooled analysis in 191 countries

Introduction: With a growing number of people with hypertension, the limited number of physicians could not provide treatment to all patients. We quantified the gap between medical appointments available and needed for hypertension care, overall and in relation to hypertension treatment cascade metrics. Methods: Ecological descriptive analysis. We combined country-year-specific data on hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment and control (from NCD-RisC) and number of physicians (from WHO). We estimated from 1 to 12 medical appointments per year for hypertensive patients. We assumed that physicians could see 25 patients per day, work 200 days per year, and dedicate 10% of their time to hypertension care. Results: We studied 191 countries. Forty-one countries would not have enough physicians to provide at least 1 medical appointment per year to all the population with hypertension; these countries were low/lower-middle income and in Sub-Saharan Africa or East Asia and Pacific. Regardless of the world region, ≥50% of countries would not have enough physicians to provide ≥8 medical appointments to their population with hypertension. Countries where the demand exceeded the offer of medical appointments for hypertension care had worse hypertension diagnosis, treatment and control rates than countries where the demand did not exceed the offer. There were positive correlations between the physician density and hypertension diagnosis (r=0.70, p<0.001), treatment (r=0.70, p<0.001) and control (r=0.59, p<0.001). Conclusions: Where physicians are the only healthcare professionals allowed to prescribe antihypertensive medications, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, the healthcare system may struggle to deliver antihypertensive treatment to hypertensive patients

Intermediate hyperglycaemia and 10-year mortality in resource-constrained settings: The PERU Migrant Study

Aim To determine whether intermediate hyperglycaemia, defined by fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c criteria, is associated with mortality in a 10‐year cohort of people in a Latin American country. Methods Analysis of the PERU MIGRANT Study was conducted in three different population groups (rural, rural‐to‐urban migrant, and urban). The baseline assessment was conducted in 2007/2008, with follow‐up assessment in 2018. The outcome was all‐cause mortality, and the exposure was intermediate hyperglycaemia, using three definitions: (1) impaired fasting glucose, defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria [fasting plasma glucose 5.6–6.9 mmol/l (100–125 mg/dl)]; (2) prediabetes defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria [HbA1c levels 39–46 mmol/mol (5.7–6.4%)]; and (3) prediabetes defined according to the International Expert Committee criteria [HbA1c levels 42–46 mmol/mol (6.0–6.4%)]. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Results At baseline, the mean (sd) age of the study population was 47.8 (11.9) years and 52.5% of the cohort were women. The study cohort was divided into population groups as follows: 207 people (20.0%) in the rural population group, 583 (59.7%) in the rural‐to‐urban migrant group and 198 (20.3%) in the urban population group. The prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia was: 6%, 12.9% and 38.5% according to the American Diabetes Association impaired fasting glucose definition, the International Expert Committee HbA1c‐based definition and the American Diabetes Association HbA1c‐based definition, respectively, and the mortality rate after 10 years was 63/976 (7%). Intermediate hyperglycaemia was associated with all‐cause mortality using the HbA1c‐based definitions in the crude models [hazard ratios 2.82 (95% CI 1.59–4.99) according to the American Diabetes Association and 2.92 (95% CI 1.62–5.28) according to the International Expert Committee], whereas American Diabetes Association‐defined impaired fasting glucose was not [hazard ratio 0.84 (95% CI 0.26–2.68)]. In the adjusted model, however, only the American Diabetes Association HbA1c‐based definition was associated with all‐cause mortality [hazard ratio 1.91 (95% CI 1.03–3.53)], whereas the International Expert Committee HbA1c‐based and American Diabetes Association impaired fasting glucose‐based definitions were not [hazard ratios 1.42 (95% CI 0.75–2.68) and 1.09 (95% CI 0.33–3.63), respectively]. Conclusions Intermediate hyperglycaemia defined using the American Diabetes Association HbA1c criteria was associated with an elevated mortality rate after 10 years in a cohort from Peru. HbA1c appears to be a factor associated with mortality in this Peruvian population

A systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic models of chronic kidney disease in low- and middle- income countries

Objective: To summarize available chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnostic and prognostic models in Low- and Middle-Income countries (LMIC) Method: Systematic review (PRISMA guidelines). We searched Medline, EMBASE, Global Health (these three through OVID), Scopus and Web of Science from inception to April 9th, 2021, April 17th, 2021 and April 18th, 2021, respectively . We first screened titles and abstracts, and then studied in detail the selected reports; both phases were conducted by two reviewers independently. We followed the CHARMS recommendations and used the PROBAST for risk of bias assessment. Results: The search retrieved 14,845 results, 11 reports were studied in detail and nine (n= 61,134) were included in the qualitative analysis. The proportion of women in the study population varied between 24.5%-76.6%, and the mean age ranged between 41.8-57.7 years. Prevalence of undiagnosed chronic kidney disease ranged between 1.1%-29.7%. Age, diabetes mellitus and sex were the most common predictors in the diagnostic and prognostic models. Outcome definition varied greatly, mostly consisting of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The highest performance metric was the negative predictive value. All studies exhibited high risk of bias, and some had methodological limitations. Conclusion: There is no strong evidence to support the use of a CKD diagnostic or prognostic model throughout LMIC. The development, validation and implementation of risk scores must be a research and public health priority in LMIC to enhance CKD screening to improve timely diagnosis

Simplified hypertension screening methods across 60 countries: An observational study

Background Simplified blood pressure (BP) screening approaches have been proposed. However, evidence is limited to a few countries and has not documented the cardiovascular risk amongst missed hypertension cases, limiting the uptake of these simplified approaches. We quantified the proportion of missed, over-diagnosed, and consistently identified hypertension cases and the 10-year cardiovascular risk in these groups. Methods and findings We used 60 WHO STEPS surveys (cross-sectional and nationally representative; n = 145,174) conducted in 60 countries in 6 world regions between 2004 and 2019. Nine simplified approaches were compared against the standard (average of the last 2 of 3 BP measurements). The 10-year cardiovascular risk was computed with the 2019 World Health Organization Cardiovascular Risk Charts. We used t tests to compare the cardiovascular risk between the missed and over-diagnosed cases and the consistent hypertension cases. We used Poisson multilevel regressions to identify risk factors for missed cases (adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and 10-year cardiovascular risk). Across all countries, compared to the standard approach, the simplified approach that missed the fewest cases was using the second BP reading if the first BP reading was 130–145/80–95 mm Hg (5.62%); using only the second BP reading missed 5.80%. The simplified approach with the smallest over-diagnosis proportion was using the second BP reading if the first BP measurement was ≥140/90 mm Hg (3.03%). In many countries, cardiovascular risk was not significantly different between the missed and consistent hypertension groups, yet the mean was slightly lower amongst missed cases. Cardiovascular risk was positively associated with missed hypertension depending on the simplified approach. The main limitation of the work is the cross-sectional design. Conclusions Simplified BP screening approaches seem to have low misdiagnosis rates, and cardiovascular risk could be lower amongst missed cases than amongst consistent hypertension cases. Simplified BP screening approaches could be included in large screening programmes and busy clinics

Aggregation and combination of cardiovascular risk factors and their association with 10-year all-cause mortality: The PERU MIGRANT Study

Objective To estimate the association between the aggregation and pair-wise combination of selected cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and 10-year all-cause mortality. Methods Secondary data analysis of the PERU MIGRANT study, a prospective population-based cohort. Ten-year all-cause mortality was determined for participants originally enrolled in the PERU MIGRANT Study (baseline in 2007) through the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status. The CVRF included hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and overweight/obesity. Exposures were composed of both the aggregation of the selected CVRF (one, two, and three or more CVRF) and pair-wise combinations of CVRF. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Findings Of the 989 participants evaluated at baseline, 976 (98.8%) had information about vital status at 10 years of follow-up (9992.63 person-years), and 63 deaths were recorded. In the multivariable model, adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle variables, participants with two CVRF (HR: 2.48, 95% CI: 1.03–5.99), and those with three or more CVRF (HR: 3.93, 95% CI: 1.21–12.74) had higher all-cause mortality risk, compared to those without any CVRF. The pair-wise combinations associated with the highest risk of all-cause mortality, compared to those without such comorbidities, were hypertension with type 2 diabetes (HR: 11.67, 95% CI: 3.67–37.10), and hypertension with overweight/obesity (HR: 2.76, 95% CI: 1.18–6.71). Conclusions The aggregation of two or more CVRF and the combination of hypertension with type 2 diabetes or overweight/obesity were associated with an increased risk of 10-year all-cause mortality. These risk profiles will inform primary and secondary prevention strategies to delay mortality from cardiovascular risk factors

Blood pressure and 10-year all-cause mortality: Findings from the PERU MIGRANT Study

Background The long-term impact of elevated blood pressure on mortality outcomes has been recently revisited due to proposed changes in cut-offs for hypertension. This study aimed at assessing the association between high blood pressure levels and 10-year mortality using the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC-7) and the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2017 blood pressure guidelines. Methods Data analysis of the PERU MIGRANT Study, a prospective ongoing cohort, was used. The outcome of interest was 10-year all-cause mortality, and exposures were blood pressure categories according to the JNC-7 and ACC/AHA 2017 guidelines. Log-rank test, Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models were used to assess the associations of interest controlling for confounders. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated. Results A total of 976 records, mean age of 60.4 (SD: 11.4), 513 (52.6%) women, were analyzed. Hypertension prevalence at baseline almost doubled from 16.0% (95% CI 13.7%–18.4%) to 31.3% (95% CI 28.4%–34.3%), using the JNC-7 and ACC/AHA 2017 definitions, respectively. Sixty three (6.4%) participants died during the 10-year follow-up, equating to a mortality rate of 3.6 (95% CI 2.4–4.7) per 1000 person-years. Using JNC-7, and compared to those with normal blood pressure, those with pre-hypertension and hypertension had 2.1-fold and 5.1-fold increased risk of death, respectively. Similar mortality effect sizes were estimated using ACC/AHA 2017 for stage-1 and stage-2 hypertension. Conclusions Blood pressure levels under two different definitions increased the risk of 10-year all-cause mortality. Hypertension prevalence doubled using ACC/AHA 2017 compared to JNC-7. The choice of blood pressure cut-offs to classify hypertension categories need to be balanced against the patients benefit and the capacities of the health system to adequately handle a large proportion of new patients

Physical activity patterns among adolescents in Latin America and the Caribbean region.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity implies different patterns, but many studies have focused on physical inactivity and sedentary behaviors. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of different physical activity patterns among adolescents in Latin America and the Caribbean region. METHODS: Pooled analysis of the most updated data of the Global School-based Student Health surveys. Age-standardized prevalence of 4 outcomes was estimated using information from the last 7 days: physical inactivity (0 d of at least 60 min/d), insufficient physical activity (<5 d of at least 60 min/d), commuting physical activity (≥5 d of walking or biking to school), and sedentary behavior (≥3 h/d of sitting time). RESULTS: A total of 132,071 records (33 countries) were analyzed, mean age 14.6 years, 51.2% girls. Pooled age-standardized prevalence of physical inactivity was 22.3%, greater among girls (25.4%) than boys (19.1%); insufficient physical activity was present in 67.7%, greater in girls (73.6%) than boys (61.5%); commuting physical activity was seen in 43.7%, similar between girls (43.3%) and boys (44.1%); and sedentary behavior was present in 43.4%, greater among girls (45.4%) than boys (41.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In Latin America and the Caribbean region, almost two-thirds of adolescents are insufficiently physically active, ≥40% are sedentary, and ≥20% are physically inactive, and these behaviors are more frequent among girls than boys

Anosmia and dysgeusia in COVID-19: a systematic review [version 1; peer review: 2 approved, 1 not approved]

Background: This systematic review had three aims: i) to determine the frequency of anosmia (or other smell disorders) and dysgeusia (or other taste disorders) in COVID-19 patients; ii) to determine whether anosmia or dysgeusia are independently associated with COVID-19 diagnosis; and iii) to determine whether anosmia or dysgeusia are prognostic factors for impaired outcomes among COVID-19 patients. Methods: On April 20 th, 2020, we search MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Scopus, Web of Science and MedXriv. We used terms related to COVID-19, smell and taste disorders. We selected case series, cross-sectional, case-control and cohort studies. We included studies with COVID-19 patients describing their symptoms; studies that compared smell and taste disorders between COVID-19 patients and otherwise healthy subjects; and studies comparing smell and taste disorders between COVID-19 severe and mild/moderate cases. Because of methodological heterogeneity and the limited number of results, a qualitative synthesis is presented. Results: From 31 reports, we selected six (n=2,757). Six studies reported the proportion of smell and taste disorders among COVID-19 patients. Two reports studied whether smell and taste disorders were independently associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. No reports studied the association with impaired outcomes among COVID-19 patients. The frequency of anosmia ranged between 22%-68%. The definition of taste disorders varied greatly, with dysgeusia present in 33% and ageusia in 20%. People who reported loss of smell and taste had six-fold higher odds of being COVID-19 positive; similarly, anosmia and ageusia were associated with 10-fold higher odds of COVID-19 diagnosis. Conclusions: The frequency of smell and taste disorders is as high as other symptoms, thus, at least anosmia for which the definition was more consistent, could be included in lists of COVID-19 symptoms. Although there is promising evidence, it is premature to conclude that smell and taste disorders are strongly associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020181308

Urbanization, altitude and cardiovascular risk

Background: There is limited information regarding the variation of the cardiovascular (CV) risk, that combines multiple risk factors in one metric, according to urbanization and altitude. Objective: To assess and disentangle the potential association between urbanization and altitude with absolute CV risk using Peruvian nationally-representative surveys. Methods: Pooled analysis of Peruvian Demographic Health Surveys (from 2014 to 2020), including subjects aged between 40 and 74 years, was conducted. The outcome of interest was the 10-year predicted absolute CV risk based on the non-laboratory version of the World Health Organization (WHO) and split into <10% and ≥10%. The exposures were urbanization (rural or urban) and altitude (<500 meters above the sea level [m.a.s.l.], between 500 and 2,499 m.a.s.l, between 2,500 and 3,499 m.a.s.l., and ≥3,500 m.a.s.l.). Crude and adjusted Poisson regression models were built to assess the associations of interest, reporting prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Data of 80,409 subjects, mean age 54.3 (SD: 8.8) and 42,640 (54.4%) females were analyzed. Regarding urbanization, 30,722 (25.4%) subjects were from rural areas, and 60.6% lives at <500 m.a.s.l., whereas only 9.3% lives at ≥3500 m.a.s.l. The 10-year predicted absolute CV risk mean was 4.5% (SD: 3.1), and 7.8% had a CV risk ≥10%. In multivariable model, urbanization, mainly rurality (PR=0.89; 95%CI: 0.81–0.97) and altitude (PR=0.82; 95%CI: 0.75–0.90 for those living between 2,500–3,490 m.a.s.l. and PR=0.68; 95%CI: 0.60–0.76 for those living ≥3,500 m.a.s.l) were factors independently associated with CV risk. Urbanization was an effect modifier of the association between altitude and CV risk with a greater effect in urban settings. Conclusion Urbanization, specifically rurality, and high-altitude, mainly ≥2,500 m.a.s.l., were factors independently associated with lower predicted CV risk

Sweetened beverages, snacks and overweight: findings from the Young Lives cohort study in Peru

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between consumption of snacks and sweetened beverages and risk of overweight among children. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the Young Lives cohort study in Peru. SETTING: Twenty sentinel sites from a total of 1818 districts available in Peru. SUBJECTS: Children in the younger cohort of the Young Lives study in Peru, specifically those included in the third (2009) and the fourth (2013) rounds. RESULTS: A total of 1813 children were evaluated at baseline; 49·2 % girls and mean age 8·0 (sd 0·3) years. At baseline, 3·3 (95 % CI 2·5, 4·2) % reported daily sweetened beverage consumption, while this proportion was 3·9 (95 % CI 3·1, 4·9) % for snacks. Baseline prevalence of overweight was 22·0 (95 % CI 20·1, 23·9) %. Only 1414 children were followed for 4·0 (sd 0·1) years, with an overweight incidence of 3·6 (95 % CI 3·1, 4·1) per 100 person-years. In multivariable analysis, children who consumed sweetened beverages and snacks daily had an average weight increase of 2·29 (95 % CI 0·62, 3·96) and 2·04 (95 % CI 0·48, 3·60) kg more, respectively, than those who never consumed these products, in approximately 4 years of follow-up. Moreover, there was evidence of an association between daily consumption of sweetened beverages and risk of overweight (relative risk=2·12; 95 % CI 1·05, 4·28). CONCLUSIONS: Daily consumption of sweetened beverages and snacks was associated with increased weight gain v. never consuming these products; and in the case of sweetened beverages, with higher risk of developing overweight