“SQiD, the Single Question in Delirium; can a single question help clinicians to detect delirium in hospitalised cancer patients?” running heading Single Question in Delirium” (Bcan-D-20-01665)

AimA serious syndrome for cancer in-patients, delirium risk increases with age and medical acuity. Screening tools exist but detection is frequently delayed or missed. We test the 'Single Question in Delirium' (SQiD), in comparison to psychiatrist clinical interview.MethodsInpatients in two comprehensive cancer centres were prospectively screened. Clinical staff asked informants to respond to the SQiD: "Do you feel that [patient's name] has been more confused lately?". The primary endpoint was negative predictive value (NPV) of the SQiD versus psychiatrist diagnosis (Diagnostic and Statistics Manual criteria). Secondary endpoints included: NPV of the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), sensitivity, specificity and Cohen's Kappa coefficient.ResultsBetween May 2012 and July 2015, the SQiD plus CAM was applied to 122 patients; 73 had the SQiD and psychiatrist interview. Median age was 65 yrs. (interquartile range 54-74), 46% were female; median length of hospital stay was 12 days (5-18 days). Major cancer types were lung (19%), gastric or other upper GI (15%) and breast (14%). 70% of participants had stage 4 cancer. Diagnostic values were similar between the SQiD (NPV = 74, 95% CI 67-81; kappa = 0.32) and CAM (NPV = 72, 95% CI 67-77, kappa = 0.32), compared with psychiatrist interview. Overall the CAM identified only a small number of delirious cases but all were true positives. The specificity of the SQiD was 87% (74-95) The SQiD had higher sensitivity than CAM (44% [95% CI 41-80] vs 26% [10-48]).ConclusionThe SQiD, administered by bedside clinical staff, was feasible and its psychometric properties are now better understood. The SQiD can contribute to delirium detection and clinical care for hospitalised cancer patients

The changing nature of risk and risk management: the challenge of borders, uncertainty and resilience

No abstract available

Toward Human-Carnivore Coexistence: Understanding Tolerance for Tigers in Bangladesh

Fostering local community tolerance for endangered carnivores, such as tigers (Panthera tigris), is a core component of many conservation strategies. Identification of antecedents of tolerance will facilitate the development of effective tolerance-building conservation action and secure local community support for, and involvement in, conservation initiatives. We use a stated preference approach for measuring tolerance, based on the ‘Wildlife Stakeholder Acceptance Capacity’ concept, to explore villagers’ tolerance levels for tigers in the Bangladesh Sundarbans, an area where, at the time of the research, human-tiger conflict was severe. We apply structural equation modeling to test an a priori defined theoretical model of tolerance and identify the experiential and psychological basis of tolerance in this community. Our results indicate that beliefs about tigers and about the perceived current tiger population trend are predictors of tolerance for tigers. Positive beliefs about tigers and a belief that the tiger population is not currently increasing are both associated with greater stated tolerance for the species. Contrary to commonly-held notions, negative experiences with tigers do not directly affect tolerance levels; instead, their effect is mediated by villagers’ beliefs about tigers and risk perceptions concerning human-tiger conflict incidents. These findings highlight a need to explore and understand the socio-psychological factors that encourage tolerance towards endangered species. Our research also demonstrates the applicability of this approach to tolerance research to a wide range of socio-economic and cultural contexts and reveals its capacity to enhance carnivore conservation efforts worldwide

Identifikasi Karakter Siswa Menggunakan Metode K-Means (Studi Kasus Sdn 156 Pekanbaru)

Good character education can have a characteristic impact on students. each student has a different character. Various ways done by the school in character education based on kemendiknas, including State Elementary School 156 Pekanbaru. Problems that arise in the field is there is no method that can determine the character of the students so that the school's special teachers can not understand precisely the characters in the students. The lack of understanding of the character of the students makes the vision of the school mission has not been seen so that character education in SDN 156 Pekanbaru has not been right target. Therefore, it needs to be done grouping student character in SDN 156 Pekanbaru with the aim of school know character owned by students in school. The K-Means algorithm is used to classify the character of the students with the number of clusters as much as 2 using the six attributes of characters studied: Honest, disciplined, confident, caring, creative and responsible with 130 student data. The results of K-Means manual calculation with sample data 10 data from 130 data that is weak character (C1) amounted to 1 student and weak character of 9 students, this result is same with calculation executed by RapidMiner application. Test results with 130 data using RapidMiner resulted in the number of students with weak character 26 students with the average centroid (0.665) with caring and creative characters. While students who have strong character 104 students with average value of centroid (0.900) with honest character, discipline, confidence, and responsibility. The result of character grouping based on class cluster position in RapidMiner is grade 3 which has weak character (C1) 8 students from 35 students, grade 4 is 8 out of 24 students, 5th grade is 1 of 17 students and grade 6 is 9 of 46 students. While clusters with strong characters (C2) class 3 amounted to 27 students, grade 4 amounted to 24 students, class 5 amounted to 16 students, and grade 6 amounted to 37 students. From the results of this study is expected Strong characters can be developed by school continue to perform habits which involves the students so that the characters in the students can be seen while for the caring and creative characters so as not to be weak then the school always provide guidance to the students and give examples of good habits and activities that can be followed by students in school

The Status of GMSB After 1/fb at the LHC

We thoroughly investigate the current status of supersymmetry in light of the latest searches at the LHC, using General Gauge Mediation (GGM) as a well-motivated signature generator that leads to many different simplified models. We consider all possible promptly-decaying NLSPs in GGM, and by carefully reinterpreting the existing LHC searches, we derive limits on both colored and electroweak SUSY production. Overall, the coverage of GGM parameter space is quite good, but much discovery potential still remains even at 7 TeV. We identify several regions of parameter space where the current searches are the weakest, typically in models with electroweak production, third generation sfermions or squeezed spectra, and we suggest how ATLAS and CMS might modify their search strategies given the understanding of GMSB at 1/fb. In particular, we propose the use of leptonic $M_{T2}$ to suppress $t{\bar t}$ backgrounds. Because we express our results in terms of simplified models, they have broader applicability beyond the GGM framework, and give a global view of the current LHC reach. Our results on 3rd generation squark NLSPs in particular can be viewed as setting direct limits on naturalness.Comment: 44 pages, refs added, typos fixed, improved MC statistics in fig 1

Temperature Dependence of the Extrinsic Incubation Period of Orbiviruses in Culicoides Biting Midges

The rate at which viruses replicate and disseminate in competent arthropod vectors is limited by the temperature of their environment, and this can be an important determinant of geographical and seasonal limits to their transmission by arthropods in temperate regions.Here, we present a novel statistical methodology for estimating the relationship between temperature and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and apply it to both published and novel data on virus replication for three internationally important orbiviruses (African horse sickness virus (AHSV), bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV)) in their Culicoides vectors. Our analyses show that there can be differences in vector competence for different orbiviruses in the same vector species and for the same orbivirus in different vector species. Both the rate of virus replication (approximately 0.017-0.021 per degree-day) and the minimum temperature required for replication (11-13°C), however, were generally consistent for different orbiviruses and across different Culicoides vector species. The estimates obtained in the present study suggest that previous publications have underestimated the replication rate and threshold temperature because the statistical methods they used included an implicit assumption that all negative vectors were infected.Robust estimates of the temperature dependence of arbovirus replication are essential for building accurate models of transmission and for informing policy decisions about seasonal relaxations to movement restrictions. The methodology developed in this study provides the required robustness and is superior to methods used previously. Importantly, the methods are generic and can readily be applied to other arbovirus-vector systems, as long as the assumptions described in the text are valid

Quantifying the potential for bluetongue virus transmission in Danish cattle farms

We used a mechanistic transmission model to estimate the number of infectious bites (IBs) generated per bluetongue virus (BTV) infected host (cattle) using estimated hourly microclimatic temperatures at 22,004 Danish cattle farms for the period 2000–2016, and Culicoides midge abundance based on 1,453 light-trap collections during 2007–2016. We used a range of published estimates of the duration of the hosts’ infectious period and equations for the relationship between temperature and four key transmission parameters: extrinsic incubation period, daily vector survival rate, daily vector biting rate and host-to-vector transmission rate resulting in 147,456 combinations of daily IBs. More than 82% combinations of the parameter values predicted > 1 IBs per host. The mean IBs (10–90th percentiles) for BTV per infectious host were 59 (0–73) during the transmission period. We estimated a maximum of 14,954 IBs per infectious host at some farms, while a best-case scenario suggested transmission was never possible at some farms. The use of different equations for the vector survival rate and host-to-vector transmission rates resulted in large uncertainty in the predictions. If BTV is introduced in Denmark, local transmission is very likely to occur. Vectors infected as late as mid-September (early autumn) can successfully transmit BTV to a new host until mid-November (late autumn)

Chinese characters reveal impacts of prior experience on very early stages of perception

Visual perception is strongly determined by accumulated experience with the world, which has been shown for shape, color, and position perception, in the field of visuomotor learning, and in neural computation. In addition, visual perception is tuned to statistics of natural scenes. Such prior experience is modulated by neuronal top-down control the temporal properties of which had been subject to recent studies. Here, we deal with these temporal properties and address the question how early in time accumulated past experience can modulate visual perception