Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods

We study the quarterly bilateral real exchange rate and the relative price of non-traded to traded goods for 1225 country pairs over 1980?2005. We show that the two variables are positively correlated, but that movements in the relative price measure are smaller than those in the real exchange rate. The relation between the two variables is stronger when there is an intense trade relationship between two countries and when the variance of the real exchange rate between them is small. The relation does not change for rich/poor country bilateral pairs or for high inflation/low inflation country pairs. We identify an anomaly: The relation between the real exchange rate and relative price of non-traded goods for US/EU bilateral trade partners is unusually weak.Trade

U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations

This paper studies the relation between the United States? bilateral real exchange rate and the associated bilateral relative price of nontraded goods for five of its most important trade relationships. Traditional theory attributes fluctuations in real exchange rates to changes in the relative price of nontraded goods. We find that this relation depends crucially on the choice of price series used to measure relative prices and on the choice of trade partner. The relation is stronger when we measure relative prices using producer prices rather than consumer prices. The relation is stronger the more important is the trade relationship between the United States and a trade partner. Even in cases where there is a strong relation between the real exchange rate and the relative price of nontraded goods, however, a large fraction of real exchange rate fluctuations is due to deviations from the law of one price for traded goods.Foreign exchange rates ; Prices ; International trade ; International finance ; Monetary policy

Real Exchange Rate Movements and the Relative Price of Non-traded Goods

We study the quarterly bilateral real exchange rate and the relative price of non-traded to traded goods for 1225 country pairs over 1980-2005. We show that the two variables are positively correlated, but that movements in the relative price measure are smaller than those in the real exchange rate. The relation between the two variables is stronger when there is an intense trade relationship between two countries and when the variance of the real exchange rate between them is small. The relation does not change for rich/poor country bilateral pairs or for high inflation/low inflation country pairs. We identify an anomaly: The relation between the real exchange rate and relative price of non-traded goods for US/EU bilateral trade partners is unusually weak.

A Small Open Economy in Depression: Lessons from Canada in the 1930s

This paper tests the hypothesis that idiosyncratic U.S. disturbances and their international propagation can account for the global Depression. Exploiting common stochastic trends in U.S. and Canadian interwar data, we estimate a small open economy model for Canada that decomposes output fluctuations into sources identifiable with world and country-specific disturbances. We find that the onset, depth and duration of output collapse in both Canada and the U.S. are primarily attributable to a common, permanent output shock leaving little significant role for idiosyncratic disturbances originating in either economy.

Periconceptional environment predicts leukocyte telomere length in a cross-sectional study of 7-9 year old rural Gambian children

Early life exposures are important predictors of adult disease risk. Although the underlying mechanisms are largely unknown, telomere maintenance may be involved. This study investigated the relationship between seasonal differences in parental exposures at time of conception and leukocyte telomere length (LTL) in their offspring. LTL was measured in two cohorts of children aged 2 yrs (N = 487) and 7–9 yrs (N = 218). The association between date of conception and LTL was examined using Fourier regression models, adjusted for age, sex, leukocyte cell composition, and other potential confounders. We observed an effect of season in the older children in all models [likelihood ratio test (LRT) χ²2 = 7.1, p = 0.03; fully adjusted model]. LTL was greatest in children conceived in September (in the rainy season), and smallest in those conceived in March (in the dry season), with an effect size (LTL peak–nadir) of 0.60 z-scores. No effect of season was evident in the younger children (LRT χ²2 = 0.87, p = 0.65). The different results obtained for the two cohorts may reflect a delayed effect of season of conception on postnatal telomere maintenance. Alternatively, they may be explained by unmeasured differences in early life exposures, or the increased telomere attrition rate during infancy

Complete Genome Sequence of Streptococcus pneumoniae Strain BVJ1JL, a Serotype 1 Carriage Isolate from Malawi.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of pneumonia, meningitis, and bacteremia. Serotype 1 is rarely carried but is commonly associated with invasive pneumococcal disease, and in the African "meningitis belt," it is prone to cause cyclical epidemics. We report the complete genome sequence of S. pneumoniae serotype 1 strain BVJ1JL, isolated in Malawi

Environmentally sensitive hotspots in the methylome of the early human embryo

In humans, DNA methylation marks inherited from gametes are largely erased following fertilisation, prior to construction of the embryonic methylome. Exploiting a natural experiment of seasonal variation including changes in diet and nutritional status in rural Gambia, we analysed three datasets covering two independent child cohorts and identified 259 CpGs showing consistent associations between season of conception (SoC) and DNA methylation. SoC effects were most apparent in early infancy, with evidence of attenuation by mid-childhood. SoC-associated CpGs were enriched for metastable epialleles, parent-of-origin-specific methylation and germline differentially methylated regions, supporting a periconceptional environmental influence. Many SoC-associated CpGs overlapped enhancers or sites of active transcription in H1 embryonic stem cells and fetal tissues. Half were influenced but not determined by measured genetic variants that were independent of SoC. Environmental 'hotspots' providing a record of environmental influence at periconception constitute a valuable resource for investigating epigenetic mechanisms linking early exposures to lifelong health and disease

Genome-wide association study of chronic sputum production implicates loci involved in mucus production and infection

Background: chronic sputum production impacts on quality of life and is a feature of many respiratory diseases. Identification of the genetic variants associated with chronic sputum production in a disease agnostic sample could improve understanding of its causes and identify new molecular targets for treatment.Methods: we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of chronic sputum production in UK Biobank. Signals meeting genome-wide significance (p<5×10−8) were investigated in additional independent studies, were fine-mapped and putative causal genes identified by gene expression analysis. GWASs of respiratory traits were interrogated to identify whether the signals were driven by existing respiratory disease among the cases and variants were further investigated for wider pleiotropic effects using phenome-wide association studies (PheWASs).Results: from a GWAS of 9714 cases and 48 471 controls, we identified six novel genome-wide significant signals for chronic sputum production including signals in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) locus, chromosome 11 mucin locus (containing MUC2, MUC5AC and MUC5B) and FUT2 locus. The four common variant associations were supported by independent studies with a combined sample size of up to 2203 cases and 17 627 controls. The mucin locus signal had previously been reported for association with moderate-to-severe asthma. The HLA signal was fine-mapped to an amino acid change of threonine to arginine (frequency 36.8%) in HLA-DRB1 (HLA-DRB1*03:147). The signal near FUT2 was associated with expression of several genes including FUT2, for which the direction of effect was tissue dependent. Our PheWAS identified a wide range of associations including blood cell traits, liver biomarkers, infections, gastrointestinal and thyroid-associated diseases, and respiratory disease.Conclusions: novel signals at the FUT2 and mucin loci suggest that mucin fucosylation may be a driver of chronic sputum production even in the absence of diagnosed respiratory disease and provide genetic support for this pathway as a target for therapeutic intervention

DNA methylation signatures associated with cardiometabolic risk factors in children from India and The Gambia: results from the EMPHASIS study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of cardiometabolic disease (CMD) is rising globally, with environmentally induced epigenetic changes suggested to play a role. Few studies have investigated epigenetic associations with CMD risk factors in children from low- and middle-income countries. We sought to identify associations between DNA methylation (DNAm) and CMD risk factors in children from India and The Gambia. RESULTS: Using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation 850 K Beadchip array, we interrogated DNAm in 293 Gambian (7-9 years) and 698 Indian (5-7 years) children. We identified differentially methylated CpGs (dmCpGs) associated with systolic blood pressure, fasting insulin, triglycerides and LDL-Cholesterol in the Gambian children; and with insulin sensitivity, insulinogenic index and HDL-Cholesterol in the Indian children. There was no overlap of the dmCpGs between the cohorts. Meta-analysis identified dmCpGs associated with insulin secretion and pulse pressure that were different from cohort-specific dmCpGs. Several differentially methylated regions were associated with diastolic blood pressure, insulin sensitivity and fasting glucose, but these did not overlap with the dmCpGs. We identified significant cis-methQTLs at three LDL-Cholesterol-associated dmCpGs in Gambians; however, methylation did not mediate genotype effects on the CMD outcomes. CONCLUSION: This study identified cardiometabolic biomarkers associated with differential DNAm in Indian and Gambian children. Most associations were cohort specific, potentially reflecting environmental and ethnic differences