As both major parties struggle with internal divisions, it is crucial to engage with different facets of party cohesion

As both the Conservatives and Labour are confronted with ideological and organisational divisions that undermine their efficiency and jeopardise the foundations of the responsible party model, Caroline Close writes that understanding how (old and new) values, ideas and conception of democracy affect party members’ relationship to their party, within and beyond the legislative arena, is more important than ever

Reluctant elites: democratic innovations are popular – but rare. Brexit shows why

People want more say in the democratic process – by voting in referendums and taking part in town hall debates, for example. But in fact these kinds of democratic innovation are rare. Caroline Close and Lidia Núñez explain how parties in power have a vested interest in keeping things the way they are, particularly given how risky referendums can be (as David Cameron knows only too well)

Is Protest Only Negative? Examining the Effect of Emotions and Affective Polarization on Protest Behaviour

This contribution sheds light on the link between affect and protest behaviors. Using data from a voter survey conducted around the 2019 elections in Belgium, we examine two dimensions of affect: a vertical one, i.e., negative and positive emotions towards politics in general, and a horizontal one, i.e., affective polarization towards fellow citizens. Our findings make three important contributions. First, we identify five distinct classes of respondents depending on their emotions towards politics (apathetic, angry, hopeful, highly emotional, and average). Second, we demonstrate that the combination of both anger and hope is more strongly associated with protest action than anger alone. By contrast, apathy, characterized by an absence of emotions towards politics, is negatively related to protest behavior. Third, we show that affective polarization is a key driver of protest behavior per se. We also show that the two dimensions of affect have distinctive effects. Yet they interact: Affective polarization towards political opponents compensates for the absence of emotions towards politics in general

Relative survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture in older people in New South Wales, Australia

Survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture by age group and sex relative to survival in the general population was assessed in people aged 65+. Men had double the risk of death compared with women to 1 year, but age effects lasted only to 3 months. Clinical outcomes need to be improved.We assessed the relative survival of hospitalised fall-related hip fracture patients aged 65+ years leaving hospital in New South Wales, Australia, between July 2000 and December 2003.We carried out a population-based study of all hospital separations for NSW residents with a principal diagnosis of hip fracture (ICD-10-AM S72.0 to S72.2) and first external cause of fall (ICD-10-AM codes W00 to W19), linked to NSW death data. A total of 16,836 cases were included. Relative survival 3 to 36 months post-admission by 10-year age groups and sex was calculated, using NSW life tables for 2002-2004. Relative excess risk was modelled using a generalised linear model with Poisson error structure, using the life table data.One-year cumulative relative survival in 65- to 74-year-olds was 82% (men), 90% (women); in 85+-year-olds 65% (men), 80% (women). Men have a relative excess risk of death of 2.2 (95% CI 2.03-2.38) times that of women. Only 21% of deaths mention the hip fracture as contributing to death.There is a need to reduce the number of hip fractures and improve clinical outcomes for older people hospitalised with hip fractures

Relative survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture in older people in New South Wales, Australia

Summary: Survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture by age group and sex relative to survival in the general population was assessed in people aged 65+. Men had double the risk of death compared with women to 1 year, but age effects lasted only to 3 months. Clinical outcomes need to be improved. Introduction: We assessed the relative survival of hospitalised fall-related hip fracture patients aged 65+ years leaving hospital in New South Wales, Australia, between July 2000 and December 2003. Method: We carried out a population-based study of all hospital separations for NSW residents with a principal diagnosis of hip fracture (ICD-10-AM S72.0 to S72.2) and first external cause of fall (ICD-10-AM codes W00 to W19), linked to NSW death data. A total of 16,836 cases were included. Relative survival 3 to 36 months post-admission by 10-year age groups and sex was calculated, using NSW life tables for 2002-2004. Relative excess risk was modelled using a generalised linear model with Poisson error structure, using the life table data. Results: One-year cumulative relative survival in 65- to 74-year-olds was 82% (men), 90% (women); in 85+-year-olds 65% (men), 80% (women). Men have a relative excess risk of death of 2.2 (95% CI 2.03-2.38) times that of women. Only 21% of deaths mention the hip fracture as contributing to death. Conclusion: There is a need to reduce the number of hip fractures and improve clinical outcomes for older people hospitalised with hip fractures. © 2008 International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.C

New Frontiers for Terrestrial-sized to Neptune-sized Exoplanets In the Era of Extremely Large Telescopes

Surveys reveal that terrestrial- to Neptune-sized planets (1 $< R <$ 4 R$_{\rm{Earth}}$) are the most common type of planets in our galaxy. Detecting and characterizing such small planets around nearby stars holds the key to understanding the diversity of exoplanets and will ultimately address the ubiquitousness of life in the universe. The following fundamental questions will drive research in the next decade and beyond: (1) how common are terrestrial to Neptune-sized planets within a few AU of their host star, as a function of stellar mass? (2) How does planet composition depend on planet mass, orbital radius, and host star properties? (3) What are the energy budgets, atmospheric dynamics, and climates of the nearest worlds? Addressing these questions requires: a) diffraction-limited spatial resolution; b) stability and achievable contrast delivered by adaptive optics; and c) the light-gathering power of extremely large telescopes (ELTs), as well as multi-wavelength observations and all-sky coverage enabled by a comprehensive US ELT Program. Here we provide an overview of the challenge, and promise of success, in detecting and comprehensively characterizing small worlds around the very nearest stars to the Sun with ELTs. This white paper extends and complements the material presented in the findings and recommendations published in the National Academy reports on Exoplanet Science Strategy and Astrobiology Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe.Comment: Astro2020 Science White Pape

The Demographics and Atmospheres of Giant Planets with the ELTs

Gas giants are the most readily detectable exoplanets but fundamental questions about their system architectures, formation, migration, and atmospheres have been unanswerable with the current generation of ground- and space-based facilities. The dominant techniques to detect and characterize giant planets $-$ radial velocities, transits, direct imaging, microlensing, and astrometry $-$ are each isolated to a limited range of planet masses, separations, ages, and temperatures. These windows into the arrangement and physical properties of giant planets have spawned new questions about the timescale and location of their assembly; the distributions of planet mass and orbital separation at young and old ages; the composition and structure of their atmospheres; and their orbital and rotational angular momentum architectures. The ELTs will address these questions by building bridges between these islands of mass, orbital distance, and age. The angular resolution, collecting area, all-sky coverage, and novel instrumentation suite of these facilities are needed to provide a complete map of the orbits and atmospheric evolution of gas giant planets (0.3$-$10 $M_\mathrm{Jup}$) across space (0.1$-$100 AU) and time (1 Myr to 10 Gyr). This white paper highlights the scientific potential of the GMT and TMT to address these outstanding questions, with a particular focus on the role of direct imaging and spectroscopy of large samples of giant planets that will soon be made available with $Gaia$.Comment: White paper for the Astro2020 decadal surve

The use of predictive fall models for older adults receiving aged care, using routinely collected electronic health record data : a systematic review

Background: Falls in older adults remain a pressing health concern. With advancements in data analytics and increasing uptake of electronic health records, developing comprehensive predictive models for fall risk is now possible. We aimed to systematically identify studies involving the development and implementation of predictive falls models which used routinely collected electronic health record data in home-based, community and residential aged care settings. Methods: A systematic search of entries in Cochrane Library, CINAHL, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science was conducted in July 2020 using search terms relevant to aged care, prediction, and falls. Selection criteria included English-language studies, published in peer-reviewed journals, had an outcome of falls, and involved fall risk modelling using routinely collected electronic health record data. Screening, data extraction and quality appraisal using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program for Clinical Prediction Rule Studies were conducted. Study content was synthesised and reported narratively. Results: From 7,329 unique entries, four relevant studies were identified. All predictive models were built using different statistical techniques. Predictors across seven categories were used: demographics, assessments of care, fall history, medication use, health conditions, physical abilities, and environmental factors. Only one of the four studies had been validated externally. Three studies reported on the performance of the models. Conclusions: Adopting predictive modelling in aged care services for adverse events, such as falls, is in its infancy. The increased availability of electronic health record data and the potential of predictive modelling to document fall risk and inform appropriate interventions is making use of such models achievable. Having a dynamic prediction model that reflects the changing status of an aged care client is key to this moving forward for fall prevention interventions

Muscle glycogen utilisation during Rugby match play: Effects of pre-game carbohydrate

Objectives: Although the physical demands of Rugby League (RL) match-play are well-known, the fuel sources supporting energy-production are poorly understood. We therefore assessed muscle glycogen utilisation and plasma metabolite responses to RL match-play after a relatively high (HCHO) or relatively low CHO (LCHO) diet. Design: Sixteen (mean ± SD age; 18 ± 1 years, body-mass; 88 ± 12 kg, height 180 ± 8 cm) professional players completed a RL match after 36-h consuming a non-isocaloric high carbohydrate (n = 8; 6 g kg day−1) or low carbohydrate (n = 8; 3 g kg day−1) diet. Methods: Muscle biopsies and blood samples were obtained pre- and post-match, alongside external and internal loads quantified using Global Positioning System technology and heart rate, respectively. Data were analysed using effects sizes ±90% CI and magnitude-based inferences. Results: Differences in pre-match muscle glycogen between high and low carbohydrate conditions (449 ± 51 and 444 ± 81 mmol kg−1 d.w.) were unclear. High (243 ± 43 mmol kg−1 d.w.) and low carbohydrate groups (298 ± 130 mmol kg−1 d.w.) were most and very likely reduced post-match, respectively. For both groups, differences in pre-match NEFA and glycerol were unclear, with a most likely increase in NEFA and glycerol post-match. NEFA was likely lower in the high compared with low carbohydrate group post-match (0.95 ± 0.39 mmol l−1 and 1.45 ± 0.51 mmol l−1, respectively), whereas differences between the 2 groups for glycerol were unclear (98.1 ± 33.6 mmol l−1 and 123.1 ± 39.6 mmol l−1) in the high and low carbohydrate groups, respectively. Conclusions: Professional RL players can utilise ∼40% of their muscle glycogen during a competitive match regardless of their carbohydrate consumption in the preceding 36-h