Pitfalls In Estimating ß-Convergence By Means Of Panel Data: An Empirical Test

This paper aims to test the conjecture advanced in a recent work by Bianchi and Menegatti (2007) that usual !convergence panel regressions may produce biased evidence, due to their inability to distinguish between actual catching-up across countries and decreasing growth rates over time within countries. The test considers different sub-groups in a dataset of 72 countries for the period 1970-2000 and introduces both human capital and proxies for technological differences into the analysis. The results confirm the conjecture that traditional evidence about - convergence may be misleading; they also show that catching-up across countries is weaker than usually claimed and that this process occurred only in some sub-groups of countries.Catching-up, Convergence, Economic Growth, Panel Estimation Techniques.

Un Indicatore per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia (Nuova versione)

This paper aims to construct a high-frequency coincident indicator of economic activity for Lombardy and for the provinces of Milan and Pavia, by using the dynamic factor model approach introduced by Stock e Watson (1998a e 1998b). The principal component analysis is first used to summarize the information contained in a large dataset in a limited number of common factors capable of capturing the main features of local business fluctuations. The EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm then allows to compute the desired territorial indicators by taking into account the official annual data on regional GDP or provincial valueadded growth.Coincident Economic Activity Indicators, Italian Regions, Diffusion Indexes

Un Indicatore di Attività Economica per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia

This paper aims to construct a high-frequency coincident indicator of economic activity for Lombardy and for the provinces of Milan and Pavia, by using the dynamic factor model approach introduced by Stock e Watson (1998a e 1998b). The principal component technique is first used to summarize the information contained in a large dataset in a limited number of common factors capable of capturing the main features of local business fluctuations. The EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm then allows to compute the desired territorial indicators by taking into account the official annual data on regional GDP or provincial value-added growth.Coincident Economic Activity Indicators, Italian Regions, Diffusion Indexes

Small Sample Properties of Copula-GARCH Modelling: A Monte Carlo Study

Copula-GARCH models have been recently proposed in the financial literature as a statistical tool to build flexible multivariate distributions. Our extensive simulation studies investigate the small sample properties of these models and examine how misspecification in the marginals may affect the estimation of the dependence function represented by the copula. We show that the use of normal marginals when the true Data Generating Process is leptokurtic or asymmetric, produces negatively biased estimates of the normal copula correlations. A striking result is that these biases reach their highest value when correlations are strongly negative, and viceversa. This result remains unchanged with both positively skewed and negatively skewed data, while no biases are found if the variables are uncorrelated. Besides, the effect of marginals asymmetry on correlations is smaller than that of leptokurtosis. We finally analyse the performance of these models in terms of numerical convergence and positive definiteness of the estimated copula correlation matrix.Copulas, Copula-GARCH models, Maximum Likelihood, Simulation, Small Sample Properties.

A Copula-VAR-X Approach for Industrial Production Modelling and Forecasting

World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decades and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of Copulas to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal distributions that better fit the features of empirical data, such as leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core EMU countries and we provide evidence that the copula-VAR model outperforms or at worst compares similarly to normal VAR models, keeping the same computational tractability of the latter approach.Forecasting, Industrial Production, Copulas, VAR models.

L'economia politica e l'evoluzione del capitalismo negli ultimi quarant'anni

Convegno in onore di Giorgio Lunghini

A new class of glycomimetic drugs to prevent free fatty acid-induced endothelial dysfunction

Background: Carbohydrates play a major role in cell signaling in many biological processes. We have developed a set of glycomimetic drugs that mimic the structure of carbohydrates and represent a novel source of therapeutics for endothelial dysfunction, a key initiating factor in cardiovascular complications. Purpose: Our objective was to determine the protective effects of small molecule glycomimetics against free fatty acid­induced endothelial dysfunction, focusing on nitric oxide (NO) and oxidative stress pathways. Methods: Four glycomimetics were synthesized by the stepwise transformation of 2,5­dihydroxybenzoic acid to a range of 2,5­substituted benzoic acid derivatives, incorporating the key sulfate groups to mimic the interactions of heparan sulfate. Endothelial function was assessed using acetylcholine­induced, endotheliumdependent relaxation in mouse thoracic aortic rings using wire myography. Human umbilical vein endothelial cell (HUVEC) behavior was evaluated in the presence or absence of the free fatty acid, palmitate, with or without glycomimetics (1µM). DAF­2 and H2DCF­DA assays were used to determine nitric oxide (NO) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, respectively. Lipid peroxidation colorimetric and antioxidant enzyme activity assays were also carried out. RT­PCR and western blotting were utilized to measure Akt, eNOS, Nrf­2, NQO­1 and HO­1 expression. Results: Ex vivo endothelium­dependent relaxation was significantly improved by the glycomimetics under palmitate­induced oxidative stress. In vitro studies showed that the glycomimetics protected HUVECs against the palmitate­induced oxidative stress and enhanced NO production. We demonstrate that the protective effects of pre­incubation with glycomimetics occurred via upregulation of Akt/eNOS signaling, activation of the Nrf2/ARE pathway, and suppression of ROS­induced lipid peroxidation. Conclusion: We have developed a novel set of small molecule glycomimetics that protect against free fatty acidinduced endothelial dysfunction and thus, represent a new category of therapeutic drugs to target endothelial damage, the first line of defense against cardiovascular disease

Libertà del mercato e suoi limiti

Limiti del sistema di libero mercato rispetto ad efficienza ed equit

The Growth Performance and Prospects in Europe: a Kaldorian Approach

This paper purports to apply the balance of payments constrained-growth model to explain the European growth performance in the last forty years and to discuss the likely prospects for the future. After a formal reconsideration of the long-run and short-run arguments supporting the validity of the Post-Keynesian approach to economic growth, a simplified and an extended version of the basic model are outlined. The application of the model to the European experience shows that the so-called Thirlwall’s law performs quite well in explaining facts in all the decades under consideration. The fundamental reasons behind the unsatisfactory recent EU growth experience lie therefore in a decreasing (absolutely and relatively to other advanced countries) exports dynamics and in an increasing imports dependence. On the basis of the existing trends, the prospects for the future appear to be gloomy, unless structural reforms of the productive system are promoted in order to improve the position of Europe in the international division of labour. JEL Classification: O40, O52 Acknowledgements: I wish to thank all the colleagues and the participants to the Ninth Brussels Workshop on Alternative Economic Policy in Europe for their useful comments and suggestions on a previous version of the present paper. The usual disclaimers obviously apply