Lyapunov analysis of multiscale dynamics: the slow bundle of the two-scale Lorenz 96 model

We investigate the geometrical structure of instabilities in the two-scale Lorenz 96 model through the prism of Lyapunov analysis. Our detailed study of the full spectrum of covariant Lyapunov vectors reveals the presence of a slow bundle in tangent space, composed by a set of vectors with a significant projection onto the slow degrees of freedom; they correspond to the smallest (in absolute value) Lyapunov exponents and thereby to the longer timescales. We show that the dimension of the slow bundle is extensive in the number of both slow and fast degrees of freedom and discuss its relationship with the results of a finite-size analysis of instabilities, supporting the conjecture that the slow-variable behavior is effectively determined by a nontrivial subset of degrees of freedom. More precisely, we show that the slow bundle corresponds to the Lyapunov spectrum region where fast and slow instability rates overlap, “mixing” their evolution into a set of vectors which simultaneously carry information on both scales. We suggest that these results may pave the way for future applications to ensemble forecasting and data assimilations in weather and climate models

Financial Crisis and the South African Agricultural Sector: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis

Published ArticleThis study examines the impact of financial crisis as a shock on agricultural sector of the South African economy. Agriculture is regarded as a critical source of foreign exchange, employment and poverty alleviation in South Africa. Using a computable general equilibrium model of the South African economy based on the theory of ORANI-G framework, it was discovered that the impact of the financial crisis on agricultural sector was harmful to the economy. Job losses were recorded in the sector as well as decline in household demand. The financial crisis was also found to be harsh on domestic prices and general household consumption levels. The findings have far-reaching implications for research and practice. The results provide evidence of the vulnerability of the South African agricultural sector to any financial shocks

Mechanics and thermodynamics of a new minimal model of the atmosphere

The understanding of the fundamental properties of the climate system has long benefitted from the use of simple numerical models able to parsimoniously represent the essential ingredients of its processes. Here, we introduce a new model for the atmosphere that is constructed by supplementing the now-classic Lorenz ’96 one-dimensional lattice model with temperature-like variables. The model features an energy cycle that allows for energy to be converted between the kinetic form and the potential form and for introducing a notion of efficiency. The model’s evolution is controlled by two contributions—a quasi-symplectic and a gradient one, which resemble (yet not conforming to) a metriplectic structure. After investigating the linear stability of the symmetric fixed point, we perform a systematic parametric investigation that allows us to define regions in the parameters space where at steady-state stationary, quasi-periodic, and chaotic motions are realised, and study how the terms responsible for defining the energy budget of the system depend on the external forcing injecting energy in the kinetic and in the potential energy reservoirs. Finally, we find preliminary evidence that the model features extensive chaos. We also introduce a more complex version of the model that is able to accommodate for multiscale dynamics and that features an energy cycle that more closely mimics the one of the Earth’s atmosphere

Bridging Single Neuron Dynamics to Global Brain States

Biological neural networks produce information backgrounds of multi-scale spontaneous activity that become more complex in brain states displaying higher capacities for cognition, for instance, attentive awake versus asleep or anesthetized states. Here, we review brain state-dependent mechanisms spanning ion channel currents (microscale) to the dynamics of brain-wide, distributed, transient functional assemblies (macroscale). Not unlike how microscopic interactions between molecules underlie structures formed in macroscopic states of matter, using statistical physics, the dynamics of microscopic neural phenomena can be linked to macroscopic brain dynamics through mesoscopic scales. Beyond spontaneous dynamics, it is observed that stimuli evoke collapses of complexity, most remarkable over high dimensional, asynchronous, irregular background dynamics during consciousness. In contrast, complexity may not be further collapsed beyond synchrony and regularity characteristic of unconscious spontaneous activity. We propose that increased dimensionality of spontaneous dynamics during conscious states supports responsiveness, enhancing neural networks' emergent capacity to robustly encode information over multiple scales

A mean-field approach to the dynamics of networks of complex neurons, from nonlinear Integrate-and-Fire to Hodgkin-Huxley models

We present a mean-field formalism able to predict the collective dynamics of large networks of conductance-based interacting spiking neurons. We apply this formalism to several neuronal models, from the simplest Adaptive Exponential Integrate-and-Fire model to the more complex Hodgkin-Huxley and Morris-Lecar models. We show that the resulting mean-field models are capable of predicting the correct spontaneous activity of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons in asynchronous irregular regimes, typical of cortical dynamics. Moreover, it is possible to quantitatively predict the population response to external stimuli in the form of external spike trains. This mean-field formalism therefore provides a paradigm to bridge the scale between population dynamics and the microscopic complexity of the individual cells physiology. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Population models are a powerful mathematical tool to study the dynamics of neuronal networks and to simulate the brain at macroscopic scales. We present a mean-field model capable of quantitatively predicting the temporal dynamics of a network of complex spiking neuronal models, from Integrate-and- Fire to Hodgkin-Huxley, thus linking population models to neurons electrophysiology. This opens a perspective on generating biologically realistic mean-field models from electrophysiological recordings