Fixed Exchange Rate Credibility with Heterogeneous Expectations

After disinflation has been achieved, agents who form more sophisticated forecasts have lower confidence in the sustainability of a peg compared to less sophisticated agents. Furthermore, sustained financial stability leads to a declining proportion of sophisticated agents. Thus, the credibility of a fixed exchange rate regime grows over time partly because fewer people pay attention to the workings of the monetary regime. These results are derived in a rules-versus-discretion model of a fixed exchange rate regime with heterogeneous agents. We provide unique supporting evidence using data on expectations and information about the monetary regime from Bulgaria's currency board. Working Paper 06-2

Tenuous Financial Stability

Many countries fix their exchange rate in order to bring financial stability. Usually, inflation declines and output expands but contractual agreements retain their short time frame, investment is sluggish, and economic growth slows down a few years later. This outcome is often attributed to persistent doubts on the part of agents in the commitment and ability of the government to maintain the peg. Yet direct evidence for credibility is difficult to obtain. Unique survey data from Bulgaria reveal that expectations of devaluation were indeed very much present three, four, and five years after that country achieved financial stability under a currency board regime.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39925/3/wp540.pd

Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence From the Currency Board in Bulgaria

We use unique survey data from Bulgaria’s currency board to examine the reasons for persistent incomplete credibility of a financial stabilization regime. Although it produced remarkably positive effects in terms of sustained low inflation since 1997, the currency board has not achieved full credibility. This is not uncommon in other less-developed countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. Our results reveal that incomplete credibility is explained primarily by concerns about external economic shocks and the persistent high unemployment in the country. Past experiences with high inflation do not rank among the top reasons to expect financial instability in the future.Credibility, Currency Boards, Financial Stabilization Programs

Tenuous Financial Stability

Many countries fix their exchange rate in order to bring financial stability. Usually, inflation declines and output expands but contractual agreements retain their short time frame, investment is sluggish, and economic growth slows down a few years later. This outcome is often attributed to persistent doubts on the part of agents in the commitment and ability of the government to maintain the peg. Yet direct evidence for credibility is difficult to obtain. Unique survey data from Bulgaria reveal that expectations of devaluation were indeed very much present three, four, and five years after that country achieved financial stability under a currency board regime.Credibility, Currency boards, Stabilization programs

The importance of local band effects for ferromagnetism in hole doped La2_2CuO4_4

Band calculations for supercells of La$_{(2-x)}$Ba$_x$CuO$_4$ show that the rigid band model for doping is less adequate than what is commonly assumed. In particular, weak ferromagnetism (FM) can appear locally around clusters of high Ba concentration. The clustering is important at large dilution and averaged models for magnetism, such as the virtual crystal approximation, are unable to stabilize magnetic moments. These results give a support to the idea that weak FM can be the cause of the destruction of superconductivity at high hole doping.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

The short-run dynamics of long-run inflation policy

An examination of the short- and long-term implications of an inflation policy on real output, using a method that allows structural interpretation of a simple VAR applied to a macroeconomic system that includes real output and inflation.Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy ; Gross national product

Awry²: Making Space for Experimenting with Form

Could experimenting with form help us to counter – even crack – coloniality? We are hopeful. For us, experimenting with form shimmers with possibilities for (a) decolonising Psychology. Awry² (“Awry-squared”) is a section dedicated to experimenting with form within Critical Psychology and related fields. Aka, where Awry goes awry. In this Introduction, we summarise some shapeshifting possibilities for knowledge, knowing, knowers when experimenting with form. And we overview how, through Awry², we are experimenting with making a space for these possibilities to both breathe and be put to the test

User's manual for the coupled mode version of the normal modes rotor aeroelastic analysis computer program

This User's Manual was prepared to provide the engineer with the information required to run the coupled mode version of the Normal Modes Rotor Aeroelastic Analysis Computer Program. The manual provides a full set of instructions for running the program, including calculation of blade modes, calculations of variable induced velocity distribution and the calculation of the time history of the response for either a single blade or a complete rotor with an airframe (the latter with constant inflow)

Inclusive Breakup Theory of Three-Body Halos

We present a recently developed theory for the inclusive breakup of three-fragment projectiles within a four-body spectator model \cite{CarPLB2017}, for the treatment of the elastic and inclusive non-elastic break up reactions involving weakly bound three-cluster nuclei in $A\,(a,b)\,X$ / $a = x_1 + x_2 + b$ collisions. The four-body theory is an extension of the three-body approaches developed in the 80's by Ichimura, Autern and Vincent (IAV) \cite{IAV1985}, Udagawa and Tamura (UT) \cite{UT1981} and Hussein and McVoy (HM) \cite{HM1985}. We expect that experimentalists shall be encouraged to search for more information about the $x_{1} + x_{2}$ system in the elastic breakup cross section and that also further developments and extensions of the surrogate method will be pursued, based on the inclusive non-elastic breakup part of the $b$ spectrum.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, Contribution to the Proceedings of Fusion17: "International Conference on Heavy-Ion Collisions at Near-Barrier Energies", 20-24 February 2017 Hobart, Tasmania, Australi