SMALL FARM POLICY: WHAT ROLE FOR THE GOVERNMENT?

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Stagnant productivity and low unemployment: stuck in a Keynesian equilibrium

A major challenge is to build simple intuitive macroeconomic models for policy-makers and professional economists as well as students. A specific contemporary challenge is to account for the prolonged slow growth and stagnant productivity that has followed the post-financial crisis recession, along with low inflation despite low unemployment (notably in the UK). We set out a simple three-equation model, which extends the core model in our two recent books (Carlin and Soskice, 2006, 2015) to one with two equilibria and two associated macroeconomic policy regimes. One is the standard inflation-targeting policy regime with equilibrium associated with central bank inflation targeting through monetary policy. It is joined by a second, Keynesian policy regime and equilibrium, with a zero lower bound (ZLB) in the nominal interest rate and a ZLB in inflation in which only fiscal policy is effective (Ragot, 2015). Our approach is related to the Benigno and Fornaro (2016) Keynesian–Wicksellian model of growth with business cycles. It diverges from New Keynesian models because although we attribute model-consistent expectations to the policy-maker, we do not assume that these are the basis for inflation and growth expectations of workers and firms. We compare our approach to Ravn and Sterk’s related multiple equilibrium New Keynesian model (Ravn and Sterk, 2016)

Big brother is watching you - now in a doubleplusgood way

This paper reports on the progress made with our X Marks The Spot (XMTS) system. In XMTS we make a fundamental change to the compositing operation in a desktop manager, storing all text-display events and their related raster-draw events. This means we can provide the user with a search interface that allows them to go back in time and view how their desktop used to look. Because XMTS is aware of what text was drawn into which window and at what position, the provided snapshot is semi-interactive in that the user can bring individual windows forwards and backwards, and copy text from them. In previous work we demonstrated the approach is technically feasible. In this paper we detail infrastructural advances we have made and showcase its new search interface

Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas: Evidence from Blackjack Tables

Psychologists study regret primarily by measuring subjects' attitudes in laboratory experiments. This does not shed light on how expected regret affects economic actions in market settings. To address this, we use proprietary data from a blackjack table in Las Vegas to analyze how expected regret affects peoples''decisions during gambles. Even among a group of people who choose to participate in a risk-taking activity, we find strong evidence of an economically significant omission bias: players incur substantial losses by playing too conservatively. This behavior is prevalent even among large stakes gamblers, and becomes more severe following previous aggressive play, suggesting a rebound effect after aggressive play.

The shapes of Milky Way satellites: looking for signatures of tidal stirring

We study the shapes of Milky Way satellites in the context of the tidal stirring scenario for the formation of dwarf spheroidal galaxies. The standard procedures used to measure shapes involve smoothing and binning of data and thus may not be sufficient to detect structural properties like bars, which are usually subtle in low surface brightness systems. Taking advantage of the fact that in nearby dwarfs photometry of individual stars is available we introduce discrete measures of shape based on the two-dimensional inertia tensor and the Fourier bar mode. We apply these measures of shape first to a variety of simulated dwarf galaxies formed via tidal stirring of disks embedded in dark matter halos and orbiting the Milky Way. In addition to strong mass loss and randomization of stellar orbits, the disks undergo morphological transformation that typically involves the formation of a triaxial bar after the first pericenter passage. These tidally induced bars persist for a few Gyr before being shortened towards a more spherical shape if the tidal force is strong enough. We test this prediction by measuring in a similar way the shape of nearby dwarf galaxies, satellites of the Milky Way. We detect inner bars in Ursa Minor, Sagittarius, LMC and possibly Carina. In addition, six out of eleven studied dwarfs show elongated stellar distributions in the outer parts that may signify transition to tidal tails. We thus find the shapes of Milky Way satellites to be consistent with the predictions of the tidal stirring model.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Ap