Analyzing real options and flexibility in engineering systems design using decision rules and deep reinforcement learning

Engineering systems provide essential services to society e.g., power generation, transportation. Their performance, however, is directly affected by their ability to cope with uncertainty, especially given the realities of climate change and pandemics. Standard design methods often fail to recognize uncertainty in early conceptual activities, leading to rigid systems that are vulnerable to change. Real Options and Flexibility in Design are important paradigms to improve a system’s ability to adapt and respond to unforeseen conditions. Existing approaches to analyze flexibility, however, do not leverage sufficiently recent developments in machine learning enabling deeper exploration of the computational design space. There is untapped potential for new solutions that are not readily accessible using existing methods. Here, a novel approach to analyze flexibility is proposed based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). It explores available datasets systematically and considers a wider range of adaptability strategies. The methodology is evaluated on an example waste-toenergy system. Low and high flexibility DRL models are compared against stochastically optimal inflexible and flexible solutions using decision rules. The results show highly dynamic solutions, with action space parametrized via artificial neural network. They show improved expected economic value up to 69% compared to previous solutions. Combining information from action space probability distributions along expert insights and risk tolerance helps make better decisions in real-world design and system operations. Out of sample testing shows that the policies are generalizable, but subject to tradeoffs between flexibility and inherent limitations of the learning process

Finite reduction and Morse index estimates for mechanical systems

A simple version of exact finite dimensional reduction for the variational setting of mechanical systems is presented. It is worked out by means of a thorough global version of the implicit function theorem for monotone operators. Moreover, the Hessian of the reduced function preserves all the relevant information of the original one, by Schur's complement, which spontaneously appears in this context. Finally, the results are straightforwardly extended to the case of a Dirichlet problem on a bounded domain.Comment: 13 pages; v2: minor changes, to appear in Nonlinear Differential Equations and Application

Economic evaluation of flexible IGCC plants with integrated membrane reactor modules

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle with embedded membrane reactor modules (IGCC-MR) represents a new technology option for the co-production of electricity and pure hydrogen endowed with enhanced environmental performance capacity. It is an alternative to conventional coaland gas-fired power generation technologies. As a new technology, the IGCC-MR power plant needs to be evaluated in the presence of irreducible regulatory and fuel market uncertainties for the potential deployment of an initial fleet of demonstration plants at the commercial scale. This paper presents the development of a systematic and comprehensive three-step methodological framework to assess the economic value of flexible alternatives in the design and operations of an IGCC-MR plant under the aforementioned sources of uncertainty. The main objective is to demonstrate the potential value enhancements stemming to the long-term economic performance of flexible IGCC-MR project investments, by managing the uncertainty associated with future environmental regulations and fuel costs. The paper provides an overview of promising design flexibility concepts for IGCC-MR power plants and focuses on operational and constructional flexibility. The operational flexibility is realized through the option of a temporary shutdown of the plant with considerations of regulatory and market uncertainties. This option reduces the probability of loss and the downside risk compared to the base case. The constructional flexibility considers installation of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) unit in the plant under three different alternatives: 1) installing CCS in the initial construction phase, 2) retrofitting CCS at a later stage and 3) retrofitting CCS with pre-investment at a later stage. Monte Carlo simulations and financial analysis are used to demonstrate that the most economically advantageous flexibility option is to install CCS in the initial IGCC-MR construction phase

Conformational modulation of sequence recognition in synthetic macromolecules

The different triplet sequences in high molecular weight aromatic copolyimides comprising pyromellitimide units ("I") flanked by either ether-ketone ("K") or ether-sulfone residues ("S") show different binding strengths for pyrene-based tweezer-molecules. Such molecules bind primarily to the diimide unit through complementary π-π-stacking and hydrogen bonding. However, as shown by the magnitudes of 1H NMR complexation shifts and tweezer-polymer binding constants, the triplet "SIS" binds tweezer-molecules more strongly than "KIS" which in turn bind such molecules more strongly than "KIK". Computational models for tweezer-polymer binding, together with single-crystal X-ray analyses of tweezer-complexes with macrocyclic ether-imides, reveal that the variations in binding strength between the different triplet sequences arise from the different conformational preferences of aromatic rings at diarylketone and diarylsulfone linkages. These preferences determine whether or not chain-folding and secondary π−π-stacking occurs between the arms of the tweezermolecule and the 4,4'-biphenylene units which flank the central diimide residue

Delta chirality ruthenium ‘light-switch’ complexes can bind in the minor groove of DNA with five different binding modes

[Ru(phen)2(dppz)]2+ has been studied since the 1990s due to its “light-switch” properties. It can be used as a luminescent DNA probe, with emission switched on through DNA binding. The luminescence observed is dependent on the solvent accessibility of the pyrazine nitrogen atoms, and therefore is sensitive to changes in both binding site of the cation and chromophore orientation. The compound is also chiral, and there are distinct differences between the enantiomers in terms of the emission behaviour when bound to a variety of DNA sequences. Whilst a number of binary DNA-complex X-ray crystal structures is available, most include the Λ enantiomer, and there is very little structural information about binding of the Δ enantiomer. Here we present the first X-ray crystal structure of a Δ enantiomer bound to well-matched DNA, in the absence of the other, Λ, enantiomer. We show how the binding site observed here can be related to a more general pattern of motifs in the crystallographic literature and propose that the Δ enantiomer can bind with five different binding modes, offering a new hypothesis for the interpretation of solution data

Economic performance evaluation of flexible centralised and decentralised blue hydrogen production systems design under uncertainty

Blue hydrogen is viewed as an important energy vector in a decarbonised global economy, but its large-scale and capital-intensive production displays economic performance vulnerabities in the face of increased market and regulatory uncertainty. This study analyses flexible (modular) blue hydrogen production plant designs and evaluates their effectiveness to enhance economic performance under uncertainty. The novelty of this work lies in the development of a comprehensive techno-economic evaluation framework that considers flexible centralised and decentralised blue hydrogen plant design alternatives in the presence of irreducible uncertainty, whilst explicitly considering the time value of money, economies of scale and learning effects. A case study of centralised and decentralised blue hydrogen production for the transport sector in the San Francisco area is developed to highlight the underlying value of flexibility. The proposed methodological framework considers various blue hydrogen plant designs (fixed, phased, and flexible) and compares them using relevant economic indicators (net present value (NPV), capex, value-at-risk/gain, etc.) through a detailed Monte Carlo simulation framework. Results indicate that flexible centralised hydrogen production yields greater economic value than alternative designs, despite the associated cost-premium of modularity. It is also shown that the value of flexibility increases under greater uncertainty, higher learning rates and weaker economies of scale. Moreover, sensitivity analysis reveals that flexible design remains the preferred investment option over a wide range of market and regulatory conditions except for high initial hydrogen demand. Finally, this study demonstrates that major regulatory and market uncertainties surrounding blue hydrogen production can be effectively managed through the application of flexible engineering system design that protects the investment from major downside risks whilst allowing access to favourable upside opportunities

Therapeutic Use of Self and Fieldwork Experience: An Exploration of the Art and Science of Occupational Therapy

The clinical practice of occupational therapy has been described as a blend of both art and science. For occupational therapy students, Level II fieldwork experiences offer early opportunities to refine both client-centered attitudes and scientific aptitude in relationship-based caregiving. In this retrospective study, researchers examined the ability to predict final Fieldwork Performance Evaluation scores from the following non-cognitive (i.e., art) and cognitive (i.e., science) variables: ranked student responses to the Self-Assessment of Modes Questionnaire (v.II); undergraduate grade point average (GPA; cumulative and science), and Graduate Record Examination (GRE) scores (quantitative, verbal, and analytic). Using a series of simple linear regressions, researchers analyzed data from sixty-nine master’s-level occupational therapy students. For the first Level II fieldwork experience, empathizing and empathizing-revised modes appeared to be a significant predictor with moderate, positive correlation coefficients (p=.008, r=.329; p=.01, r=.296, respectively). For the second Level II fieldwork experience, collaborating and instructing modes appeared to be significant predictors (p=.036, r= -.255; p=.037, r=.254 respectively). GPA and GRE scores were not predictive of fieldwork success. The degree to which art and science shape expectations for relationship-based client interactions during fieldwork experiences requires further investigation. However, calling attention to occupational therapy students’ preferred communication modes highlight how client interactions may be shaped to fit the students’ natural tendencies rather than the needs of the client

Moving constraints as stabilizing controls in classical mechanics

The paper analyzes a Lagrangian system which is controlled by directly assigning some of the coordinates as functions of time, by means of frictionless constraints. In a natural system of coordinates, the equations of motions contain terms which are linear or quadratic w.r.t.time derivatives of the control functions. After reviewing the basic equations, we explain the significance of the quadratic terms, related to geodesics orthogonal to a given foliation. We then study the problem of stabilization of the system to a given point, by means of oscillating controls. This problem is first reduced to the weak stability for a related convex-valued differential inclusion, then studied by Lyapunov functions methods. In the last sections, we illustrate the results by means of various mechanical examples.Comment: 52 pages, 4 figure

Controlled dehydration of a ruthenium complex-DNA crystal induces reversible DNA kinking

Hydration-dependent DNA deformation has been known since Rosalind Franklin recognised that the relative humidity of the sample had to be maintained to observe a single conformation in DNA fibre diffraction. We now report for the first time the crystal structure, at the atomic level, of a dehydrated form of a DNA duplex and demonstrate the reversible interconversion to the hydrated form at room temperature. This system, containing d(TCGGCGCCGA) in the presence of Λ-[Ru(TAP)2(dppz)]2+ (TAP = 1,4,5,8-tetraazaphenanthrene, dppz = dipyridophenazine), undergoes a partial transition from an A/B hybrid to the A-DNA conformation, at 84-79% relative humidity. This is accompanied by an increase in kink at the central step from 22° to 51°, with a large movement of the terminal bases forming the intercalation site. This transition is reversible on rehydration. Seven datasets, collected from one crystal at room temperature, show the consequences of dehydration at near-atomic resolution. This result highlights that crystals, traditionally thought of as static systems, are still dynamic and therefore can be the subject of further experimentation

Progress report and first operation of the GANIL injector

http://accelconf.web.cern.ch/AccelConf/c81/papers/abp-07.pdfInternational audienc