Combining Biophysical and Price Simulations to Assess the Economics of Long-Term Crop Rotations

Biophysical simulation models (e.g. APSIM) using historical rainfall data are increasingly being used to provide yield and other data on crop rotations in various regions of Australia. However, to analyse the economics of these rotations it is desirable to incorporate the other main driver of profitability, price variation. Because the context was that APSIM was being used to simulate an existing trial site being monitored by a farmer group Gross Margin output was considered most appropriate. Long-run rotational gross margins were calculated for the various rotations with yields (and other physical outputs) derived from APSIM simulations over a period of 100+ years and prices simulated in @Risk based on subjective triangular price distributions elicited from farmers in the group. Rotations included chickpeas, cotton, lucerne, sorghum, wheat and different lengths of fallow. Output presented to the farmers included mean annual gross margins and distributions of gross margins presented as probability distributions, cumulative probability distributions and box and whisker plots. Cotton rotations were the most profitable but had greater declines in soil fertility and greater drainage out of the root zone.Crop Production/Industries,

Combining biophysical and price simulations to assess the economics of long-term crop rotations

Long-run rotational gross margins were calculated with yields derived from biophysical simulations in APSIM over a period of 100+ years and prices simulated in @Risk based on subjective triangular price distributions elicited from the Jimbour Plains farmer group. Rotations included chickpeas, cotton, lucerne, sorghum, wheat and different lengths of fallow. Output presented to the farmers included mean annual GMs and distributions of GMs with box and whisker plots found to be suitable. Mean-standard deviation and first and second-degree stochastic dominance efficiency measures were also calculated. Including lucerne in the rotations improved some sustainability indicators but reduced profitability.Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management,

Conversion Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Ibutilide Compared With Intravenous Procainamide in Patients With Atrial Flutter or Fibrillation 11This study was sponsored by Pharmacia & Upjohn, Kalamazoo, Michigan.22See Appendix Afor a complete list of investigators and study sites.

AbstractObjectives. This multicenter study compared the efficacy and safety of ibutilide versus procainamide for conversion of recent-onset atrial flutter or fibrillation.Background. Ibutilide fumarate is an intravenous (IV) class III antiarrhythmic agent that has been shown to be significantly more effective than placebo in the pharmacologic conversion of atrial flutter and fibrillation to sinus rhythm. Procainamide is commonly used for conversion of recent-onset atrial fibrillation to normal sinus rhythm.Methods. One hundred twenty-seven patients (age range 22 to 92 years) with atrial flutter or fibrillation of 3 h to 90 days’ (mean 21 days) duration were randomized to receive either two 10-min IV infusions of 1 mg of ibutilide fumarate, separated by a 10-min infusion of 5% dextrose in sterile water, or three successive 10-min IV infusions of 400 mg of procainamide hydrochloride.Results. Of the 127 patients, 120 were evaluated for efficacy: 35 (58.3%) of 60 in the ibutilide group compared with 11 (18.3%) of 60 in the procainamide group had successful termination within 1.5 h of treatment (p < 0.0001). Seven patients were found to have violated the protocol and were not included in the final evaluation. In the patients with atrial flutter, ibutilide had a significantly higher success rate than procainamide (76% [13 of 17] vs. 14% [3 of 22], p = 0.001). Similarly, in the atrial fibrillation group, ibutilide had a significantly higher success rate than procainamide (51% [22 of 43] vs. 21% [8 of 38], p = 0.005). One patient who received ibutilide, which was found to be a protocol violation, had sustained polymorphic ventricular tachycardia requiring direct current cardioversion. Seven patients who received procainamide became hypotensive.Conclusions. This study establishes the superior efficacy of ibutilide over procainamide when administered to patients to convert either atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter to sinus rhythm. Hypotension was the major adverse effect seen with procainamide. A low incidence of serious proarrhythmia was seen with the administration of ibutilide occurring at the end of infusion

Scope for improved eco-efficiency varies among diverse cropping systems

Global food security requires eco-efficient agriculture to produce the required food and fiber products concomitant with ecologically efficient use of resources. This eco-efficiency concept is used to diagnose the state of agricultural production in China (irrigated wheat–maize double-cropping systems), Zimbabwe (rainfed maize systems), and Australia (rainfed wheat systems). More than 3,000 surveyed crop yields in these three countries were compared against simulated grain yields at farmer-specified levels of nitrogen (N) input. Many Australian commercial wheat farmers are both close to existing production frontiers and gain little prospective return from increasing their N input. Significant losses of N from their systems, either as nitrous oxide emissions or as nitrate leached from the soil profile, are infrequent and at low intensities relative to their level of grain production. These Australian farmers operate close to eco-efficient frontiers in regard to N, and so innovations in technologies and practices are essential to increasing their production without added economic or environmental risks. In contrast, many Chinese farmers can reduce N input without sacrificing production through more efficient use of their fertilizer input. In fact, there are real prospects for the double-cropping systems on the North China Plain to achieve both production increases and reduced environmental risks. Zimbabwean farmers have the opportunity for significant production increases by both improving their technical efficiency and increasing their level of input; however, doing so will require improved management expertise and greater access to institutional support for addressing the higher risks. This paper shows that pathways for achieving improved eco-efficiency will differ among diverse cropping systems

Food and agricultural innovation pathways for prosperity

This introduction to the special issue deploys a framework, inspired by realist synthesis and introduced in Section 1, that aims to untangle the contexts, mechanisms, and outcomes associated with investments that link poverty reduction and rural prosperity within a broad agri-food systems perspective. Section 2 considers changes in contexts: Where are agricultural research investments most likely to be an engine of poverty reduction? Over the past 25 years, there have been profound changes in the development context of most countries, necessitating an update on strategic insights for research investment priorities relevant for the economic, political, social, environmental, and structural realities of the early 21st Century. Section 2 briefly surveys changes in these structural aspects of poverty and development processes in low-income countries, with particular attention to new drivers (e.g., urbanization, climate change) that will be of increasing salience in the coming decades. In Section 3, we turn to mechanisms: What are the plausible impact pathways and what evidence exists to test their plausibility? Poor farmers in the developing world are often the stated focus of public sector agricultural research. However, farmers are not the only potential beneficiaries of agricultural research; rural landless laborers, stakeholders along food value chains, and the urban poor can also be major beneficiaries of such research. Thus, there are multiple, interacting pathways through which agricultural research can contribute to reductions in poverty and associated livelihood vulnerabilities. This paper introduces an ex ante set of 18 plausible impact pathways from agricultural research to rural prosperity outcomes, employing bibliometric methods to assess the evidence underpinning causal links. In Section 4, we revisit the concept of desired impacts: When we seek poverty reduction, what does that mean and what measures are needed to demonstrate impact? The papers in this special issue are intended to yield insights to inform improvements in agricultural research that seeks to reduce poverty. History indicates that equity of distribution of gains matters hugely, and thus the questions of “who wins?” and “who loses?” must be addressed. Moreover, our understanding(s) of “poverty” and the intended outcomes of development investments have become much richer over the past 25 years, incorporating more nuance regarding gender, community differences, and fundamental reconsideration of the meaning of poverty and prosperity that are not captured by simple head count income or even living standard measures

Crop Updates 2011 - Cereals

This session covers eleven papers from different authors: OPENING, NEW CROP VARIETIES & DECISION SUPPORT Opening 1. Overview of the 2010 season, David Bowran, Director, Practice and Systems Innovation, Department of Agriculture and Food, 2. My experience in a drought as a farmer and consultant, Bill Crabtree, Morawa, Western Australia 3. Meeting the productivity and sustainability challenges to Australian agriculture until 2030, Peter Carberry, CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship New Crop Varieties 4. National Variety Trials (NTV) wheat variety performance – captivity vs broadacre, Peter Burgess, Kalyx Agriculture 5. WALAN2289 – a new lupin variety to replace Mandelup in the system, Bevan Buirchell, Department of Agriculture and Food 6. The strengths and pitfalls of different grades of new wheat varieties in Western Australia Ben Curtis, Sarah Ellis, Brenda Shackley, Christine Zaicou, Department of Agriculture and Food, 7. Yield performance of temperate and tropical rice varieties in the Ord River Irrigation Areas (ORIA) Siva Sivapalan, Penny Goldsmith and Gae Plunkett, Department of Agriculture and Food Decision Support 8. A new phenology model (DM) for wheat, Darshan Sharma, Mario D’Antuono, Brenda Shackley, Christine Zaicou, Ben Curtis, Department of Agriculture and Food 9. PeatFax Map and the Weed Seed Wizard: tools to help with crop protection, Art Diggle1, Peter Mangano1, Sally Peltzer1, Michael Renton2, Bill Macleod1, Fumie Horiuchi1, George Wyatt1 1Department of Agriculture and Food, 2University of Western Australia 10. Soil management calculator for predicting phosphorus losses under cropping systems in Western Australia, Geoff Anderson1, Richard Bell2, Ross Brennan1 and Wen Chen2, 1Department of Agriculture and Food, 2School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University 11. Tools to assist growers understand the impacts of management decisions in the high rainfall zone, Penny Riffkin, Department of Primary Industries, Victoria, Hamilto

Tune in to your emotions: a robust personalized affective music player

The emotional power of music is exploited in a personalized affective music player (AMP) that selects music for mood enhancement. A biosignal approach is used to measure listeners’ personal emotional reactions to their own music as input for affective user models. Regression and kernel density estimation are applied to model the physiological changes the music elicits. Using these models, personalized music selections based on an affective goal state can be made. The AMP was validated in real-world trials over the course of several weeks. Results show that our models can cope with noisy situations and handle large inter-individual differences in the music domain. The AMP augments music listening where its techniques enable automated affect guidance. Our approach provides valuable insights for affective computing and user modeling, for which the AMP is a suitable carrier application

Crop Updates 2006 - Cereals

This session covers twenty nine papers from different authors: PLENARY 1. The 2005 wheat streak mosaic virus epidemic in New South Wales and the threat posed to the Western Australian wheat industry, Roger Jones and Nichole Burges, Department of Agriculture SOUTH COAST AGRONOMY 2. South coast wheat variety trial results and best options for 2006, Mohammad Amjad, Ben Curtis and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 3. Dual purpose winter wheats to improve productivity, Mohammad Amjad and Ben Curtis, Department of Agriculture 4. South coast large-scale premium wheat variety trials, Mohammad Amjad and Ben Curtis, Department of Agriculture 5. Optimal input packages for noodle wheat in Dalwallinu – Liebe practice for profit trial, Darren Chitty, Agritech Crop Research and Brianna Peake, Liebe Group 6. In-crop risk management using yield prophet®, Harm van Rees1, Cherie Reilly1, James Hunt1, Dean Holzworth2, Zvi Hochman2; 1Birchip Cropping Group, Victoria; 2CSIRO, Toowoomba, Qld 7. Yield Prophet® 2005 – On-line yield forecasting, James Hunt1, Harm van Rees1, Zvi Hochman2,Allan Peake2, Neal Dalgliesh2, Dean Holzworth2, Stephen van Rees1, Trudy McCann1 and Peter Carberry2; 1Birchip Cropping Group, Victoria; 2CSIRO, Toowoomba, Qld 8. Performance of oaten hay varieties in Western Australian environments, Raj Malik and Kellie Winfield, Department of Agriculture 9. Performance of dwarf potential milling varieties in Western Australian environments, Kellie Winfield and Raj Malik, Department of Agriculture 10. Agronomic responses of new wheat varieties in the Southern agricultural region of WA, Brenda Shackley and Judith Devenish, Department of Agriculture 11. Responses of new wheat varieties to management factors in the central agricultural region of Western Australia, Darshan Sharma, Steve Penny and Wal Anderson,Department of Agriculture 12. Sowing time on wheat yield, quality and $ - Northern agricultural region, Christine Zaicou-Kunesch, Department of Agriculture NUTRITION 13.The most effective method of applying phosphorus, copper and zinc to no-till crops, Mike Bolland and Ross Brennan, Department of Agriculture 14. Uptake of K from the soil profile by wheat, Paul Damon and Zed Rengel, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Western Australia 15. Reducing nitrogen fertiliser risks, Jeremy Lemon, Department of Agriculture 16. Yield Prophet® and canopy management, Harm van Rees1, Zvi Hochman2, Perry Poulton2, Nick Poole3, Brooke Thompson4, James Hunt1; 1Birchip Cropping Group, Victoria; 2CSIRO, Toowoomba, Qld; 3Foundation for Arable Research, New Zealand; 4Cropfacts, Victoria 17. Producing profits with phosphorus, Stephen Loss, CSBP Ltd, WA 18. Potassium response in cereal cropping within the medium rainfall central wheatbelt, Jeff Russell1, Angie Roe2 and James Eyres2, Department of Agriculture1, Farm Focus Consultants, Northam2 19. Matching nitrogen supply to wheat demand in the high rainfall cropping zone, Narelle Simpson, Ron McTaggart, Wal Anderson, Lionel Martin and Dave Allen, Department of Agriculture DISEASES 20. Comparative study of commercial wheat cultivars and differential lines (with known Pm resistance genes) to powdery mildew response, Hossein Golzar, Manisha Shankar and Robert Loughman, Department of Agriculture 21. On farm research to investigate fungicide applications to minimise leaf disease impacts in wheat – part II, Jeff Russell1, Angie Roe2and James Eyres2, Department of Agriculture1, and Farm Focus Consultants, Northam2 22. Disease resistance update for wheat varieties in WA, Manisha Shankar, John Majewski, Donna Foster, Hossein Golzar, Jamie Piotrowski, Nicole Harry and Rob Loughman, Department of Agriculture 23. Effect of time of stripe rust inoculum arrival on variety response in wheat, Manisha Shankar, John Majewski and Rob Loughman, Department of Agriculture 24. Fungicide seed dressing management of loose smut in Baudin barley, Geoff Thomas and Kith Jayasena, Department of Agriculture PESTS 25. How to avoid insect contamination in cereal grain at harvest, Svetlana Micic, Paul Matson and Tony Dore, Department of Agriculture ABIOTIC 26. Environment – is it as important as variety in sprouting tolerance? Thomas (Ben) Biddulph1, Dr Daryl Mares1, Dr Julie Plummer1 and Dr Tim Setter2, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia1 and Department of Agriculture2 27. Frost or fiction, Garren Knell, Steve Curtin and Wade Longmuir, ConsultAg Pty Ltd, WA 28. High moisture wheat harvesting in Esperance 2005, Nigel Metz, South East Premium Wheat Growers Association (SEPWA) Projects Coordinator, Esperance, WA SOILS 28. Hardpan penetration ability of wheat roots, Tina Botwright Acuña and Len Wade, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia MARKETS 29. Crop shaping to meet predicted market demands for wheat in the 21st Century, Cindy Mills and Peter Stone,Australian Wheat Board, Melbourn