Vine copula modeling dependence among cyber risks: A dangerous regulatory paradox

Dependence among different cyber risk classes is a fundamentally underexplored topic in the literature. However, disregarding the dependence structure in cyber risk management leads to inconsistent estimates of potential unintended losses. To bridge this gap, this article adopts a regulatory perspective to develop vine copulas to capture dependence. In quantifying the solvency capital requirement gradient for cyber risk measurement according to Solvency II, a dangerous paradox emerges: an insurance company does not tend to provide cyber risk hedging products as they are excessively expensive and would require huge premiums that it would not be possible to find policyholders

BaSIS-Net: From point estimate to predictive distribution in neural networks - a Bayesian sequential importance sampling framework

Data-driven Deep Learning (DL) models have revolutionized autonomous systems, but ensuring their safety and reliability necessitates the assessment of predictive confidence or uncertainty. Bayesian DL provides a principled approach to quantify uncertainty via probability density functions defined over model parameters. However, the exact solution is intractable for most DL models, and the approximation methods, often based on heuristics, suffer from scalability issues and stringent distribution assumptions and may lack theoretical guarantees. This work develops a Sequential Importance Sampling framework that approximates the posterior probability density function through weighted samples (or particles), which can be used to find the mean, variance, or higher-order moments of the posterior distribution. We demonstrate that propagating particles, which capture information about the higher-order moments, through the layers of the DL model results in increased robustness to natural and malicious noise (adversarial attacks). The variance computed from these particles effectively quantifies the model’s decision uncertainty, demonstrating well-calibrated and accurate predictive confidence

Evolution of a single incised valley related to inherited geology, sea level rise and climate changes during the Holocene (Tirso river, Sardinia, western Mediterranean Sea)

We performed a morpho-stratigraphic study of the Tirso River incised valley (Sardinia Island, western Mediterranean Sea), an erosional feature crossing the Sinis fault, a major normal fault bordering the Campidano basin between the Gulf of Oristano and the western Sardinia shelf. High-resolution seismic reflection profiles and multibeam echosounder data, integrated by age-constrained stratigraphic logs derived from 9 sediment cores enabled us to reconstruct the valley evolution during the Holocene. We found that the Tirso valley is the result of a single event of incision and infill during the last eustatic cycle, strongly controlled by the presence of the Sinis fault. In fact, this structure represents a geological threshold that marks an abrupt change in substrate lithology and seabed slope, which controlled the valley morphology, narrow when downcutting early Pliocene formations along the steeper open shelf, and wider inside the Gulf, in the Pleistocene alluvial deposits of the flatter Gulf of Oristano. The sedimentary record starts with alluvial sediments filling the valley along the shelf during the initial phase of sea level rise, i.e., over 10 ka. During the last ~9.0 ka, a bay head delta developed, with the formation of barriers at the gulf entrance. In the mid-late Holocene, the progressive sea-level rise led to rapid drowning of the barrier system, recorded by marine and estuarine sediments filling the valley. Analysis of ecological associations in the cores, collected along a valley-normal transect, allowed for a detailed reconstruction of the paleo-environmental conditions during the latest phase of the incised valley filling controlled by global climatic variations in the Mediterranean region between ~9.0 and ~ 4.5 ka. Together with eustasy, our work reveals that the evolution and sedimentary infill of the Tirso incised valley was strongly controlled by inherited geological constraints, which influenced the morphology of the valley and the stratigraphic pattern

Automated control procedures and first results from the temporary seismic monitoring of the 2012 Emilia sequence

After moderate to strong earthquakes in Italy or in the surrounding areas, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV; National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology) activates a temporary seismic network infrastructure. This is devoted to integration with the Italian National Seismic Network (RSN) [Delladio 2011] in the epicentral area, thus improving the localization of the aftershocks distribution after a mainshock. This infrastructure is composed of a stand-alone, locally recording part (Re.Mo.) [Moretti et al. 2010] and a real-time telemetered part (Re.Mo.Tel.) [Abruzzese et al. 2011a, 2011b] that can stream data to the acquisition centers in Rome and Grottaminarda. After the May 20, 2012, Ml 5.9 earthquake in the Emilia region (northern Italy), the temporary network was deployed in the epicentral area; in particular, 10 telemetered and 12 stand-alone stations were installed [Moretti et al. 2012, this volume]. Using the dedicated connection between the acquisition center in Rome and the Ancona acquisition sub-center [Cattaneo et al. 2011], the signals of the real-time telemetered stations were acquired also in this sub-center. These were used for preliminary quality control, by adopting the standard procedures in use here (see next paragraph, and Monachesi et al. [2011]). The main purpose of the present study is a first report on this quality check, which should be taken into account for the correct use of these dat

Esperienze di monitoraggio integrato: il caso della Rete Sismometrica dell’Italia centro orientale e dei suoi servizi

Viene presentata l’esperienza maturata dagli operatori della sede di Ancona dell’INGV (INGV-AN) nell’ambito delle collaborazioni tra l’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) e la Regione Marche per il miglioramento delle attività di monitoraggio sismico. L’attività dell’INGV-AN aveva due scopi: migliorare le conoscenze sulla sismicità regionale a fini scientifici e perfezionare il servizio di informazione svolto per il Dipartimento per le Politiche Integrate di Sicurezza e per la Protezione Civile (DPISPC). Per il raggiungimento degli scopi si è proceduto all’incremento del numero di stazioni, alla trasformazione in real- time della vecchia rete dial-up, alla installazione di nuove stazioni accelerometriche, e all’utilizzo del complesso dei dati raccolti dalle stazioni accelerometriche e velocimetriche in funzione nel territorio regionale e in quelli immediatamente limitrofi, nonché allo scambio dati tra la sede INGV di Ancona e quella di Roma. I costi dell’intera operazione sono stati contenuti grazie all’utilizzo delle infrastrutture radio wireless della Regione Marche, della economica trasmissione UMTS, di acquisitori GAIA sviluppati dall’INGV e di economici ma efficaci accelerometri MEMS SF3000L della Colybris. Gli obiettivi raggiunti sono i presupposti per il proseguimento della collaborazione tra i due enti rivolta alla copertura più ampia possibile del territorio regionale con reti di rilevamento accelerometrico a basso costo e alla realizzazione di servizi sempre più finalizzati all’emergenza sismica

Safety and Efficacy of a Single Procedure of Extraction and Reimplantation of Infected Cardiovascular Implantable Electronic Device (CIED) in Comparison with Deferral Timing: An Observational Retrospective Multicentric Study

(1) Background: Infections are among the most frequent and life-threatening complications of cardiovascular implantable electronic device (CIED) implantation. The aim of this study is to compare the outcome and safety of a single-procedure device extraction and contralateral implantation versus the standard-of-care (SoC) two-stage replacement for infected CIEDs. (2) Methods: We retrospectively included 66 patients with CIED infections who were treated at two Italian hospitals. Of the 66 patients enrolled in the study, 27 underwent a single procedure, whereas 39 received SoC treatment. All patients were followed up for 12 months after the procedure. (3) Results: Considering those lost to follow-up, there were no differences in the mortality rates between the two cohorts, with survival rates of 81.5% in the single-procedure group and 84.6% in the SoC group (p = 0.075). (4) Conclusions: Single-procedure reimplantation associated with an active antibiofilm therapy may be a feasible and effective therapeutic option in CIED-dependent and frail patients. Further studies are warranted to define the best treatment regimen and strategies to select patients suitable for the single-procedure reimplantation

A Geological Itinerary Through the Southern Apennine Thrust-Belt (Basilicata—Southern Italy)

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BEACH BALLS IN ITALIA CENTRO-ORIENTALE

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Esperienze di monitoraggio integrato: il caso della Rete Sismometrica dell’Italia centro orientale e dei suoi servizi

Viene presentata l’esperienza maturata dagli operatori della sede di Ancona dell’INGV (INGV-AN) nell’ambito delle collaborazioni tra l’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) e la Regione Marche per il miglioramento delle attività di monitoraggio sismico. L’attività dell’INGV-AN aveva due scopi: migliorare le conoscenze sulla sismicità regionale a fini scientifici e perfezionare il servizio di informazione svolto per il Dipartimento per le Politiche Integrate di Sicurezza e per la Protezione Civile (DPISPC). Per il raggiungimento degli scopi si è proceduto all’incremento del numero di stazioni, alla trasformazione in real- time della vecchia rete dial-up, alla installazione di nuove stazioni accelerometriche, e all’utilizzo del complesso dei dati raccolti dalle stazioni accelerometriche e velocimetriche in funzione nel territorio regionale e in quelli immediatamente limitrofi, nonché allo scambio dati tra la sede INGV di Ancona e quella di Roma. I costi dell’intera operazione sono stati contenuti grazie all’utilizzo delle infrastrutture radio wireless della Regione Marche, della economica trasmissione UMTS, di acquisitori GAIA sviluppati dall’INGV e di economici ma efficaci accelerometri MEMS SF3000L della Colybris. Gli obiettivi raggiunti sono i presupposti per il proseguimento della collaborazione tra i due enti rivolta alla copertura più ampia possibile del territorio regionale con reti di rilevamento accelerometrico a basso costo e alla realizzazione di servizi sempre più finalizzati all’emergenza sismica.Published1-321.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionaleN/A or not JCRope