Generalized Poisson difference autoregressive processes

This paper introduces a novel stochastic process with signed integer values. Its autoregressive dynamics effectively captures persistence in conditional moments, rendering it a valuable feature for forecasting applications. The increments follow a Generalized Poisson distribution, capable of accommodating over- and under-dispersion in the conditional distribution, thereby extending standard Poisson difference models. We derive key properties of the process, including stationarity conditions, the stationary distribution, and conditional and unconditional moments, which prove essential for accurate forecasting. We provide a Bayesian inference framework with an efficient posterior approximation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. This approach seamlessly incorporates inherent parameter uncertainty into predictive distributions. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through applications to benchmark datasets on car accidents and an original dataset on cyber threats, highlighting its superior fitting and forecasting capabilities compared to standard Poisson model

Innovative Closed-Loop Recyclable Bio-Based Composites from Epoxidized Waste Flour and Recycled Carbon Fibers

Epoxy-based composites are designed for long-lasting applications, though their wide use is in contrast with their poor recyclability, which poses serious end-of-life issues. In order to reduce their environmental impact, precursors derived from fossil fuel based raw materials should be replaced with eco-friendly sources. This can be attained by using naturally derived epoxy matrices, or by finding a suitable solution for recycling at the end of life. In this paper, both strategies were analyzed, by replacing traditional monomers with epoxidized waste flour (EWF), an innovative bio-precursor derived from the organic waste stream, and a cleavable hardener, which allowed the recyclability of the matrix. The recyclable matrix was reinforced with recycled carbon fibers, derived from pyrolysis. DSC measurements were carried out in order to optimize the curing steps of the matrix, then flexural tests were performed in order to evaluate the mechanical response of the composite. A green recycling procedure was then investigated, which involved the use of non-toxic solvents and mild working conditions, and allowed recovery of the matrix while still preserving the properties of the carbon fibers. The components obtained after recycling were analyzed by FTIR analysis, which revealed the presence of the epoxy ring on the recycled waste flour. Hence, recycled waste flour was again used as a precursor and mixed with the cleavable hardener, thus, obtaining a closed-loop recycling

Flexible distributed Bragg reflectors as optical outcouplers for OLEDs based on a polymeric anode

Top-emitting OLEDs (TOLEDs) represent a promising technology for the development of next-generation flexible and rollable displays, thanks to their improved light outcoupling and their compatibility with opaque substrates. Metal thin films are the most used electrodes for the manufacturing of TOLEDs, but they show poor resistance to mechanical deformation, which compromises the long-term durability of flexible devices. This paper reports the exploitation of a dielectric mirror (DBR) based on seven pairs of TiO2 and SiO2 combined with a polymeric electrode as an alternative to the bottom metal electrode in flexible TOLEDs. The DBR showed a maximum reflectivity of 99.9% at about 550 nm, and a stop-band width of about 200 nm. The reflectivity remained unchanged after bending and treatment with water and solvents. Green TOLED devices were fabricated on top of DBRs, and demonstrated good stability in terms of electro-optical and colorimetric characteristics, according to varying viewing angles. These results demonstrate that the combination of the flexible DBR with the polymeric anode is an interesting strategy for improving the durability of flexible TOLEDs for display applications, implemented on different kinds of free-standing ultra-thin substrates

Effect of surface tension and drying time on inkjet-printed PEDOT:PSS for ITO-free OLED devices

Abstract Highly conductive PEDOT:PSS is one of the most promising materials for indium tin oxide (ITO) substitution in printed electronics. Here, we report the development and optimisation of two PEDOT:PSS ink formulations for the fabrication of inkjet-printed transparent conductive layers. Starting from aqueous commercial solutions, co-solvents and a non-ionic surfactant were employed to modify the surface tension, improve the wetting capability of the ink, and obtain uniform and homogeneous thin films. In particular, the quantities of ethanol and surfactant were systematically adjusted to determine the optimal conditions for inkjet printing. The results demonstrate that a surface tension value between 28 and 40 mN/m and approximately 40 vol.% of a low-boiling-point co-solvent are fundamental to ensure the proper wetting of the glass substrate and a quick-drying process that confers uniformity to the printed thin film. The printed PEDOT:PSS thin films show good morphological, optical, and electrical properties that are similar to those observed for the corresponding spin-coated layers. The organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) fabricated with the inkjet-printed PEDOT:PSS electrodes showed a maximum quantum efficiency of 5.5% and maximum current efficiency of 15 cd/A, which is comparable to spin-coated reference devices. These results demonstrate the great potential of polymeric electrodes for the fabrication of high-efficiency printed OLED devices that are compatible with flexible and stretchable substrates

Spray coating fabrication of organic solar cells bypassing the limit of orthogonal solvents

The development of alternative deposition techniques is an important step towards the realization of low cost multilayered organic solar cells. While spin-coating needs orthogonal solvents to avoid an intermixing of stacked layers, thermal evaporation is expensive and not applicable to polymers. We show here how an innovative deposition technique called dry spray-coating may represent a promising way to manufacture bulk-hetero-junction (BHJ) and multilayered solar cells. Using standard materials such as poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl) and [6,6]-phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester, we achieved efficiency of 2.6% for the BHJ device, while a value of 1.5% was obtained for a bilayer structure using the same solvent for both materials. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC

Organic light emitting field effect transistors based on an ambipolar p-i-n layered structure

A bottom contact/top gate ambipolar "p-i-n" layered light emitting field effect transistor with the active medium inserted between two doped transport layers, is reported. The doping profile results crucial to the capability of emitting light, as well as to the electrical characteristics of the device. In this sense, high output current at relative low applied gate/drain voltage and light emission along the whole large area transistor channel are observed, putting the basis to full integration of organic light emitting field effect transistors in planar complex devices

Very low voltage and stable p-i-n organic light-emitting diodes using a linear S,S-dioxide oligothiophene as emitting layer

Very low voltage organic light-emitting diodes using a fluorescent linear S,S-dioxide oligothiophene as emitting layer has been realized using a p-i-n structure. The device reaches a remarkable luminance of 10 000 cd/m2 at only 9 V, which is two orders of magnitude higher than the simple bilayer structure already reported for this active material. Due to the doping of the transport layers, a maximum power efficiency of 2.1 lm/W was reached against 0.2 lm/W of the corresponding undoped device. As a consequence of this higher power efficiency, the reduced self-heating of the p-i-n device structure, compared to the undoped devices, determines the best operating condition to check the intrinsic stability of the emitting layer. Aging measurements reveal indeed a very high stability, with extrapolated device lifetimes at about 10 8 and 2200 h at starting luminances of 100 and 3200 cd/m2 , respectively

Components of the metabolic syndrome and carotid atherosclerosis role of elevated blood pressure

Elevated blood pressure is among the factors that contribute to the metabolic syndrome (MetS). It is not known whether subjects with MetS and elevated blood pressure are at the same cardiovascular risk as subjects with MetS but without elevated blood pressure. To clarify this point, we have evaluated the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis in subjects with MetS with or without elevated blood pressure. A large population was examined ( 842 women and 1011 men). Blood pressure, lipids, glucose, and waist were measured by routine methods. Carotid atherosclerosis was evaluated by echo Doppler examination. The prevalence of MetS was 24.4% in women and 28.7% in men. The prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis was 35.1% in women and 37.3% in men (p=NS), and increased with increasing number of MetS components. Age, smoking, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were associated with the presence of carotid atherosclerosis ( logistic model), whereas age, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and SBP were associated with the extent of atherosclerosis ( linear model). When comparing subjects with an equal number of MetS components, the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis was significantly higher in subjects with elevated blood pressure than in those without. No difference in carotid atherosclerosis prevalence was found in subjects bearing or not bearing components of the syndrome other than elevated blood pressure. The present findings demonstrate that subjects with MetS and elevated blood pressure have increased carotid atherosclerosis compared with subjects with MetS but without elevated blood pressure. The diagnosis of MetS per se might not adequately identify subjects at elevated cardiovascular risk