Variations on Birkhoff's theorem

The relation between the expanding universe and local vacuum solutions, such as that for the Solar System, is crucially mediated by Birkhoff's theorem. Here we consider how that relation works, and give generalizations of Birkhoff's theorem when there are geometric and matter and perturbations. The issue of to what degree dark matter might influence the solar system emerges as a significant question.Comment: Conference proceeding for ERE 2012, submitted to GRG for ERE2012 special issue, based on arXiv:1005.1809, arXiv:1101.4520 and arXiv:1202.024

Predicting treatment outcome in psychological treatment services by identifying latent profiles of patients

BACKGROUND: The outcomes of psychological therapies for anxiety and depression vary across individuals and symptom domains. Being able to predict treatment response from readily available patient data at presentation has potentially important benefits in aiding decisions about the most suitable interventions for a patient. This paper presents a method of identifying subgroups of patients using latent profile analysis, and comparing response to psychological treatments between these profiles. METHODS: All outpatients taken into treatment at two psychological treatment services in London, UK and who provided basic demographic information and standardized symptom measures were included in the analysis (n=16636). RESULTS: Latent Profile Analysis was performed on intake data to identify statistically different groups of patients, which were then examined in longitudinal analyses to determine their capacity to predict treatment outcomes. Comparison between profiles showed considerable variation in recovery (74-15%), deterioration rates (5-20%), and levels of attrition (17-40%). Further variation in outcomes was found within the profiles when different intensities of psychological intervention were delivered. LIMITATIONS: Latent profiles were identified using data from two services, so generalisability to other services should be considered. Routinely collected patient data was included, additional patient information may further enhance utility of the profiles. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that intake data can be used to reliably classify patients into profiles that are predictive of outcome to different intensities of psychological treatment in routine care. Algorithms based on these kinds of data could be used to optimize decision-making and aid the appropriate matching of patients to treatment

Trends in depression & anxiety symptom severity among mental health service attendees during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: General population surveys have shown that some groups, particularly young women, experienced increased distress during nationally mandated restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19. However, there has been limited research on such trends among people with pre-existing mental health conditions, leaving mental health services ill equipped to plan for current and future lockdowns. / Methods: Mean weekly scores on the GAD-7 and PHQ-9 between 01/01/2020-22/06/2020 (n=9,538 individuals) for all patients of two psychological treatment services (Improving Access to Psychological Therapies) in London, were compared to mean weekly scores from the same time periods in 2017-2019 (n=37,849). The proportion of scores which were above the clinical thresholds for ‘caseness’ each week were compared, and scores between groups based on gender, age group, and ethnicity, were also compared. / Results: Confirmed community transmission in the UK (26/02/2020-03/03/2020) and the announcement of the national ‘lockdown’ (23/03/2020) were associated with significant increases in anxiety symptom scores. ‘Lockdown’ was associated with a decrease in depression scores. These changes were not maintained during lockdown. Significant increases in depression and anxiety were observed at week 23, as restrictions were eased. / Limitations: This was an exploratory analysis in two services only. Residual confounding and selection biases cannot be ruled out. / Conclusions: Differences in the weekly average symptom scores were short-term; they did not continue throughout ‘lockdown’ as might have been expected, except among older people. Replication of this study in other settings and investigating the potential benefits of more regular reviews or more intensive treatments for at-risk groups, are warranted

Evaluation of the pathways of tropospheric nitrophenol formation using a multiphase model

International audiencePhenols are a major class of volatile organic compounds (VOC) whose reaction within, and partitioning between, the gas and liquid phases affects their lifetime within the atmosphere, the local oxidising capacity, and the extent of production of nitrophenols, which are toxic chemicals. In this work, a zero-dimension box model was constructed to quantify the relative nitration pathways, and partitioning into the liquid phase, of mono-aromatic compounds in order to help elucidate the formation pathways of 2- and 4-nitrophenol in the troposphere. The liquid phase contributed significantly to the production of nitrophenols for liquid water content (Lc) values exceeding 3×10-9, and for a range of assumed liquid droplet diameter, even though the resultant equilibrium partitioning to the liquid phase was much lower. For example, in a ''typical'' model scenario, with Lc=3×10-7, 58% of nitrophenol production occurred in the liquid phase but only 2% of nitrophenol remained there, i.e. a significant proportion of nitrophenol observed in the gas phase may actually be produced via the liquid phase. The importance of the liquid phase was enhanced at lower temperatures, by a factor ~1.5?2 at 278 K cf. 298 K. The model showed that nitrophenol production was particularly sensitive to the values of the rate coefficients for the liquid phase reactions between phenol and OH or NO3 reactions, but insensitive to the rate coefficient for the reaction between benzene and OH, thus identifying where further experimental data are required

Foehn winds link climate-driven warming to ice shelf evolution in Antarctica

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 11,037–11,057, doi:10.1002/2015JD023465.Rapid warming of the Antarctic Peninsula over the past several decades has led to extensive surface melting on its eastern side, and the disintegration of the Prince Gustav, Larsen A, and Larsen B ice shelves. The warming trend has been attributed to strengthening of circumpolar westerlies resulting from a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which is thought to promote more frequent warm, dry, downsloping foehn winds along the lee, or eastern side, of the peninsula. We examined variability in foehn frequency and its relationship to temperature and patterns of synoptic-scale circulation using a multidecadal meteorological record from the Argentine station Matienzo, located between the Larsen A and B embayments. This record was further augmented with a network of six weather stations installed under the U.S. NSF LARsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica, project. Significant warming was observed in all seasons at Matienzo, with the largest seasonal increase occurring in austral winter (+3.71°C between 1962–1972 and 1999–2010). Frequency and duration of foehn events were found to strongly influence regional temperature variability over hourly to seasonal time scales. Surface temperature and foehn winds were also sensitive to climate variability, with both variables exhibiting strong, positive correlations with the SAM index. Concomitant positive trends in foehn frequency, temperature, and SAM are present during austral summer, with sustained foehn events consistently associated with surface melting across the ice sheet and ice shelves. These observations support the notion that increased foehn frequency played a critical role in precipitating the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf.National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Grant Numbers: ANT-0732983, ANT-0732467, ANT-0732921; NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Grant Number: DGE-1144086; NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program Grant Number: NNX12AN48H2016-05-0

In the Interests of clients or commerce? Legal aid, supply, demand, and 'ethical indeterminacy' in criminal defence work

As a professional, a lawyer's first duty is to serve the client's best interests, before simple monetary gain. In criminal defence work, this duty has been questioned in the debate about the causes of growth in legal aid spending: is it driven by lawyers (suppliers) inducing unnecessary demand for their services or are they merely responding to increased demand? Research reported here found clear evidence of a change in the handling of cases in response to new payment structures, though in ways unexpected by the policy's proponents. The paper develops the concept of 'ethical indeterminacy' as a way of understanding how defence lawyers seek to reconcile the interests of commerce and clients. Ethical indeterminacy suggests that where different courses of action could each be said to benefit the client, the lawyer will tend to advise the client to decide in the lawyer's own interests. Ethical indeterminacy is mediated by a range of competing conceptions of 'quality' and 'need'. The paper goes on to question the very distinction between 'supply' and 'demand' in the provision of legal services

VOC chemical climate and O3 variation: impact of emissions on regional O3 increment

Understanding the role of individual volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the formation of surface ozone is important for the effective targeting of ozone mitigation strategies. The UK operates two European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring ‘supersites’ where concurrent measurement of 27 VOCs, NOx and ozone allows the relationships between these precursors and ozone to be explored. This work presents the relative contribution of measured VOCs on ozone formation at the ‘supersites’, including spatial variation across the UK, and temporal changes between 1999 and 2012. The study was undertaken using the impact-centred chemical climatology framework (Malley et al 2014) VOC concentrations are made up from both regional and local emissions. Regional components of ozone concentrations are distinguished from hemispheric background ozone and measured ozone concentrations which show depletion due to the local NOx environment. Increased VOC photochemical cycling is observed during periods of regional ozone formation, and the contribution of individual VOCs to this total measured VOC cycling is discussed. The drivers of this photochemical depletion, such as meteorology and emissions are evaluated. Back trajectories are coupled with gridded VOC emission maps to estimate the exposure of trajectories to VOC emissions for the four days prior to their arrival at the receptor site. These emissions are disaggregated into 11 broad source sectors, and their contribution is evaluated. Finally the implications of the level of source disaggregation available are discussed in terms of its limitations on VOC emissions speciation to estimate the exposure of receptor sites to individual VOCs.. Using the SNAP sector and the NFR code sector data, it is demonstrated that a greater level of source sector disaggregation would be beneficial for atmospheric model studies and policy determination

Systematic biases in measurement of urban nitrogen dioxide using passive diffusion samplers

Measurement of nitrogen dioxide using passive diffusion tube over 22 months in Cambridge, U.K. are analysed as a function of sampler exposure time, and compared with NO2 concentrations obtained from a co-located chemiluminescence analyser. The average ratios of passive sampler to analyser NO2 at a city centre site (mean NO2 concentration 22 ppb) are 1.27 (n = 22), 1.16 (n = 34) and 1.11 (n = 7) for exposures of 1, 2 and 4-weeks, respectively. Modelling the generation of extra NO2 arising from chemical reaction between co-diffusing NO and O3 in the tube gave a ratio (modelled/measured) of 1.31 for 1-week exposures. Such overestimation is greatest when NO2 constitutes, on average, about half of total NOx (= NO + NO2) at the monitoring locality. Although 4- week exposures gave concentrations which were not significantly different from analyser NO2, there was no correlation between the datasets. At both the city-centre site and another semi-rural site (mean NO2 concentration 11 ppb) the average of the aggregate of four consecutive 1-week sampler exposures or of two consecutive 2-week sampler exposures was systematically greater than for a single 4-week exposure. The results indicate two independent and opposing systematic biases in measurement of NO2 by passive diffusion sampler: an exposure-time independent chemical overestimation with magnitude determined by local relative concentrations of NO and O3 to NO2, and an exposuretime dependent reduction in sampling efficiency. The impact of these and other potential sources of systematic bias on the application of passive diffusion tubes for assessing ambient concentrations of NO2 in short (1-week) or long (4-week) exposures are discussed in detail

Improvement in IAPT outcomes over time: are they driven by changes in clinical practice?

Treatment outcomes across Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services in England have improved year-on-year, with the national average proportion of patients in recovery at the end of treatment now exceeding the 50% target. This is despite the number of referrals and numbers of treated patients also increasing year-on-year, suggesting that services have evolved local practices and treatment delivery to meet needs whilst improving performance. This study explores whether there have been changes in clinical practice with regard to: (1) the number of sessions and length of treatments; (2) the number of cancellations and non-attendance; and (3) the recording of problem descriptor information, and the association with treatment outcomes in IAPT. Routinely collected data from seven IAPT services involved in the North and Central East London (NCEL) IAPT Service Improvement and Research Network (SIRN) were brought together to form a dataset of nearly 88,000 patients who completed a course of IAPT treatment. Results showed that there was a slight increase in the average number of sessions, and decreases in the length of time in treatment, as well as decreases in both the number of non-attended appointments and the use of inappropriate problem descriptors. These findings highlight a number of areas where potentially small changes to clinical practice may have had positive effects on patient outcomes. The value of using IAPT data to inform service improvement evaluations is discussed