World Climate Research Program Special Workshop on Climatic Effects of ozone depletion in the southern hemisphere: assessing the evidence and identifying gaps in the current knowledge

A World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Special Workshop titled the “Climatic effects of ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere: Assessing the evidence and identifying gaps in the current knowledge” focused on the current understanding of Southern Hemisphere (SH) ozone depletion, in particular high-latitude ozone depletion, with regards to its impacts on hemispheric climate and its role relative to greenhouse gas (GHG)–induced climate changes. The 2010 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, and research published since, provided the starting point for discussion. The workshop was supported by WCRP, the National Science Foundation (NSF; United States), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA; United States), Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Técnica (Argentina), and the Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina (Argentina).Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina ; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Oneill, Alan. National Centre For Earth Observations; Reino UnidoFil: Schofield, R.. University of Melbourne; AustraliaFil: Raphael, M.. University of California at Los Angeles; Estados UnidosFil: Marshall,G. J.. British Antarctic Survey; Reino UnidoFil: Redaelli, G.. Universita degli Studi dell'Aquila; Itali

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response