Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?

A number of variables are correlated with subsequent returns on the aggregate US stock market in the 20th Century. Some of these variables are stock market valuation ratios, others reflect patterns in corporate finance or the levels of shortand long-term interest rates. Amit Goyal and Ivo Welch (2004) have argued that in-sample correlations conceal a systematic failure of these variables out of sample: None are able to beat a simple forecast based on the historical average stock return. In this note we show that forecasting variables with significant forecasting power insample generally have a better out-of-sample performance than a forecast based on the historical average return, once sensible restrictions are imposed on the signs of coefficients and return forecasts. The out-of-sample predictive power is small, but we find that it is economically meaningful. We also show that a variable is quite likely to have poor out-of-sample performance for an extended period of time even when the variable genuinely predicts returns with a stable coefficient.

the effect of step width on iliotibial band strain

Iliotibial band (ITB) syndrome is a common running injury that has been the cause of much pain in the active population. The ITB originates on the pelvis, crosses the hip joint, travels along the lateral thigh and inserts on the lateral, proximal tibia and fibula. Irritation and pain occur when there is excessive friction of the ITB as it crosses the lateral femoral condyle in the region of the knee joint. It has been shown that runners that have ITB syndrome tend to run with a narrower step width. This narrower step width would presumably stretch the ITB to a greater extent and increase the potential for ITB syndrome. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that strain and rate of strain development in the ITB would increase as the step width becomes narrower. Fifteen recreational or competitive runners ran at their preferred 5k running pace. Each subject ran at their preferred step width, their preferred step width +5% of their leg length and their preferred step width -5% of their leg length. Results showed that there was a significant difference in strain across all conditions (p \u3c .0001). There was an increase in strain rate across all conditions with the highest strain rate in the narrow running condition and the lowest strain rate in the wide running condition but only the narrow and wide (p = .003) and wide and normal (p = .016) comparisons were significant. There was a relationship between a runner\u27s step width and the strain on the ITB. Results indicated that there may be a benefit to widening the step width in runners prone to ITB syndrome. Further analysis should be conducted to insure that this suggested running style does not cause abnormal stresses or anatomical alignments that could induce injury. Future research should examine step width and strain while running during conditions known to be harmful to the ITB such as downhill running

Tree-oriented interactive processing with an application to theorem-proving, appendix E

The concept of unstructured structure editing and ted, an editor for unstructured trees, is described. Ted is used to manipulate hierarchies of information in an unrestricted manner. The tool was implemented and applied to the problem of organizing formal proofs. As a proof management tool, it maintains the validity of a proof and its constituent lemmas independently from the methods used to validate the proof. It includes an adaptable interface which may be used to invoke theorem provers and other aids to proof construction. Using ted, a user may construct, maintain, and verify formal proofs using a variety of theorem provers, proof checkers, and formatters

a variational approach to niche construction

In evolutionary biology, niche construction is sometimes described as a genuine evolutionary process whereby organisms, through their activities and regulatory mechanisms, modify their environment such as to steer their own evolutionary trajectory, and that of other species. There is ongoing debate, however, on the extent to which niche construction ought to be considered a bona fide evolutionary force, on a par with natural selection. Recent formulations of the variational free-energy principle as applied to the life sciences describe the properties of living systems, and their selection in evolution, in terms of variational inference. We argue that niche construction can be described using a variational approach. We propose new arguments to support the niche construction perspective, and to extend the variational approach to niche construction to current perspectives in various scientific fields

Addicts of nostalgia

In this thesis, I will reflect on issues of nostalgia through a series of work based upon the landscape where I grew up. I discuss how my paintings stage themes and negotiate criticality towards memory. The writing analyses my engagement towards the collaging of documentary and fictional sources: and how my paintings seek to dispel legibility and embrace slippage. Alongside discussions of personal experiences, I talk about the relationship of distancing in my practice, concerning tangible and geographic detachment. The thesis expresses my adoration for the history of British painting, and my efforts to internalize its traditions. Moreover, this investigation highlights my moral obligations regarding recollection

Ketal-Azaborine versus Ketal-Azaborine with a Spacer: Structural Effects on the Photophysical Properties of Tunable Heteroaromatic Polycyclic Chromophores

Flat-structured heteroaromatic polycyclic compounds with extended conjugated π-systems such as azaborines are in high demand in the material and imaging technology markets because of their unique features such as simultaneous tunability of fluorescence color and intensity. We have designed, synthesized, and investigated a series of novel conjugated thermally stable ketal-azaborine chromophores that contain a phenyl ring as a spacer between electronic moieties and the ketal-azaborine core as easily tunable high-luminescent organic materials. We investigated the impact of the phenyl spacer on the ketal-azaborine unit. We examined the structural effects on their photophysical properties by incorporating electron –donating and –withdrawing substituents on the spacer. We will also investigate the effects of the different electronic moieties on the HOMO and LUMO energies to help understand their fluorescence tunability and the effect of intramolecular charge transfer on the light emitting properties

The Legacy of Fascism

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66528/2/10.1177_001041407200500102.pd

Letter to the Editor Published in the Christian Intelligencer

A letter of this date to the editor was published December 8, 1859 in The Christian Intelligencer endorsed the Holland Academy. The writers are professors at the New Brunswick Theological Seminary. They conclude their letter by saying, In closing, the undersigned declare their strong conviction, that there have been as few errors of judgment in the management of the Holland Academy as could be expected in any business which fallible men managed. The signers are S[amuel] A. Van Vranken, W[illia]m H. Campbell, and S[amuel] M. Woodbridge.https://digitalcommons.hope.edu/vrp_1850s/1159/thumbnail.jp