Parallel Market Premia and Misalignment of Official Exchange Rates

Due to restrictive foreign exchange policy and active parallel markets for foreign exchange in some developing countries, it is often believed that the real official exchange rate is undervalued (overvaluing in domestic currency). Since an overvalued domestic currency depresses official current account below its equilibrium level, while an undervalued domestic currency may be inflationary, it is important to be able to detect real official rate misalignment as early as possible.This is difficult in economies where parallel markets for foreign currencies are well established, and where it is therefore to observe underlying capital flows.We show that the direction of real official rate misalignment is identfiable without knowing the size of capital flow in the parallel market. We indicate that a change in the parallel market premium is an appropriate indicator of change in real official rate misalignment.Foreign exchange markets;Official rate; parallell rate

A voice for our future: High-risk adolescents\u27 perceptions and experiences about help and healing interventions

This critical ethnography examines the perceptions of adolescents at-risk with respect to their experiences of help, both formal and informal. Ten (10) adolescents who had been involved with the Bridges psychoeducational program, an interagency partnership intervention for high-risk youth in the Waterloo region, were interviewed about their experience with the programs and people who attempt to support them. Placing great importance on using the adolescent’s words to speak to their own needs and experiences, this study\u27s main findings suggest that adolescents are not given voice by many helpers; most help agents fail to truly help these adolescents in a meaningful way, that effective helpers and healers have specific qualities to them; families are very important; and that a supportive community is essential to effective service delivery. The findings are discussed in relation to the literature on healing communities and other forms of service delivery for adolescents at-risk Recommendations for professionals and the community are offered

Variability in the immune response to Theiler's Murine Encephalomyelitis Virus in different strains of mice

Theiler's Murine Encephalomyelitis Virus (TMEV) has been a favoured model for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) since 1975 when Lipton first reported that infection with TMEV caused a biphasic Central Nervous System (CNS) disease leading to demyelination. TMEV is a picornavirus belonging to the cardiovirus genus and is a natural enteric pathogen of mice which can occasionally initiate a chronic persistent infection of the CNS. This depends on the strain and dose of virus and the strain, age and sex of the mouse. Intracerebral infection of all mouse strains with the avirulent BeAn strain of TMEV results in an acute encephalomyelitis which in susceptible mouse strains, is followed by a persistent CNS infection with lesions of inflammatory demyelination or in resistant mouse strains eradication of the virus. On the other hand i.e. infection with the neurovirulent GDVII strain of Theiler's virus results in a fulminant encephalitis in mice of all genetic backgrounds.The main aim of this study was to determine the cytokine and immunoglobulin profiles elicited in different mouse strains during the acute phase of infection. mRNA transcript levels for numerous cytokines were studied in the brains and spinal cords in Balb/c (resistant), CBA (intermediately susceptibility) and SJL/J (susceptible) mice, during the acute phase of disease, using the technique of RNase protection assay (RPA). The RPA included analysis of transcripts for TNFp, TNFa, TGFp, IFNy, IL-la, ILip, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-7, IL-10, IL-13, IL-12p40 and IL-12p35. There were similarities between the strains in the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines expressed including TNFa, TNFp and ILla. However, there were several fundamental differences between the strains including the inability of susceptible SJL/J mice to express IL-ip in the brain and the spinal cord when compared to Balb/c and CBA mice. SJL/J mice had an increase in expression of IL-4 and IL-10 and a decrease in expression of IL-2 and IFNy when compared to Balb/c and CBA mice. Expression of pro-inflammatory, anti¬ inflammatory, Thl and Th2 type cytokines correlated with the increase in levels of cellular infiltrates (CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ and F4/80+) in the CNS. Anti¬ viral immunoglobulin isotypes were also different in the three mouse strains studied. All strains produced similar levels of IgM however, Balb/c mice had significantly increased levels of IgGl and IgG2a compared to CBA and SJL/J mice during the acute phase of disease.This study also investigated TMEV persistence in CBA (intermediately susceptible) mice and the cytokine and anti-viral immunoglobulin isotypes associated with persistence. Virus persisted for >60 days in 50% of infected CBA mice, as determined by RT-PCR. Animals in which virus persisted had significantly increased RNA transcripts in the CNS for TNFa, IL-12p35 and IL-12p40. Persistently infected animals also had increased levels of anti-viral IgGl, IgG2a and IgG2b when compared to animals which had cleared the virus.The importance of interferons a/p and y were investigated. Virus spread extensively throughout the white matter regions of the brains in IFNa/pR°/° mice (constructed on a genetically resistant background (FI-2b)), during the acute phase of infection, indicating the importance of IFNa/p in preventing infection of oligodendrocytes. Infection of IFNyR°/° mice (also on a genetically resistant background) resulted in viral persistence and increased levels of anti-viral IgM, IgGl, IgG2a and IgG2b, demonstrating IFNy is essential for viral clearance. Perforin is a functional effector molecule in CTL killing, therefore, its role(s) during the acute and chronic phase of Theiler's virus infection was investigated to ascertain its importance. Studies in perforin knockout mice (also on a resistant genetic background) demonstrated that perforin is essential to control viral infection during the acute phase of infection, and is an absolute requirement for viral clearance.Infection with GDVII resulted in high levels of virus replication in the brains and spinal cords of infected mice. Levels of TNFa, IL-la, IL-2, IFNy and IL- 12p40 increase throughout infection in the brains of infected animals, and TNFa, IL-2 and IL-12p40 increase in the spinal cords. High virus titres, and an increase in the above pro-inflammatory cytokines correlated with an increase in levels of programmed cell death in CNS tissues.Infection of neonatal mice with the BeAn strain results in 100% mortality, with increased virus titres in the CNS. Expression of TNFp, TNFa, IL-4, IL-la and IL-6 increased throughout the course of infection of neonatal mice. TNFa has been implicated in the phenomenon of death by shock. Therefore, TNFa may have important implications in the pathogenesis of Theiler's virus infection in neonates

The impact of the European economic and monetary union on the stability of the Greek economy

This paper addresses the issue of how the stability of the Greek economy will be affected by Greece’s accession to the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The theoretical basis for most of the discussion of this issue to date is found in the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA), which identifies the nature of economic disturbances as key to whether currency unions provide a net benefit. We use vector autoregression to identify the nature of the disturbances that the Greek economy has experienced in the past, and add such disturbances to stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconomic model of the Greek economy, part of a larger model of the European economy known as QUEST II. The main conclusion is that the EMU will make output slightly more stable in the Greek economy. Therefore, the Greek economy will reap the efficiency gains of the common currency without suffering significantly from the elimination of its monetary sovereignty.peer-reviewe

Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Front: Helping Ukrainians Win the War and the Peace by Having Their Backs against Oligarchy

Remarkably, while fighting for their lives against Russian invasion, Ukrainians continue to wage their long internal battle against oligarchy and corruption. Ukraine is midway through this generational struggle, which began on the streets of the Maidan in Kyiv nearly a decade ago. In 2014, after deposing a kleptocratic president whose campaigns were bankrolled by agents of the Kremlin, Ukrainians got to work transforming this post-Soviet oligarchy into a modern European state under the rule of law.Continuing to uproot oligarchy—a critical part of winning the war, rebuilding the country, and preparing for EU accession—will require heavy domestic and foreign support. Anti-corruption must be central in that support. This issue drove Ukrainians into the streets a decade ago. It has topped voters' minds in every Ukrainian election since, helped trigger the largest war in Europe since WWII, and is now motivating Ukrainians to win even at enormous cost. Transparency and accountability mechanisms are essential to reassuring Western taxpayers that their wartime aid to Ukraine is safeguarded. They must also be key conditions of the ambitious reconstruction and European modernization that will inspire freedom's cause globally. Countering corruption is as strategically vital today as the policy of containing communism was in the Cold War

The Liminal Space of Design: Exploring Creation For Reproduction

Design is a highly dynamic, contested, ill-¬‐defined and powerful space or creation that shapes human life and the natural world in myriad ways. Drawing on Kurt Lewin’s Field Theory, the domains of Professional Design, Design Thinking and Critical Design have been examined as a field, defining the boundaries of what constitutes design. This investigation was initiated to serve as a provocation to prompt reflection and organization of the field, making it more accessible beyond itself and more consistent within its boundaries. Themes were generated from comprehensive search and synthesis of the literature and then organized using a Concept Mapping approach. Findings were complemented by a personal autoethnography documenting the development process for this project. A model is presented and discussed with recommended steps for practice and research considerations to aid development of curricula and communications about design within and beyond its field boundaries

Explorando la evaluación evolutiva : reflexiones sobre dos casos de estudio

Versión en inglés disponible en la Biblioteca Digital del IDRC: Exploring developmental evaluation : reflections on two case studiesLos programas de Desarrollo Internacional a menudo tienen dificultades cuando operan bajo condiciones complejas y dinámicas que no encajan en los modelos tradicionales de evaluación. La Evaluación Evolutiva (EE) ha surgido en los últimos años como un enfoque alternativo que busca crear mecanismos estructurados de retroalimentación que apoyen los procesos de innovación de manera efectiva. Este documento describe dos experiencias de EE en programas de Desarrollo Internacional. Una de las mayores contribuciones de la EE es que puede hacer de la evaluación una herramienta promisoria para ayudarle a los programas a concentrarse de manera integrada en los resultados a corto plazo, los procesos y la estrategia. Sin embargo los evaluadores y administradores de programas que quieran embarcarse en la práctica de la EE deben estar preparados para enfrentar varios desafíos, tales como la necesidad de aclarar muchos conceptos e implicaciones que deben ser entendidos desde el inicio. Implementar la EE usando el marco conceptual de la Evaluación Orientada al Uso puede ser una buena estrategia para anclar el proceso de evaluación alrededor del uso práctico, pues esto lo hace menos abstracto para las personas involucradas. La EE parece adecuarse mejor a proyectos de ejecución ágil que buscan lograr pequeños avances de manera gradual y que tienen una alta tolerancia a cometer errores

Parallel Market Premia and Misalignment of Official Exchange Rates

Due to restrictive foreign exchange policy and active parallel markets for foreign exchange in some developing countries, it is often believed that the real official exchange rate is undervalued (overvaluing in domestic currency). Since an overvalued domestic currency depresses official current account below its equilibrium level, while an undervalued domestic currency may be inflationary, it is important to be able to detect real official rate misalignment as early as possible.This is difficult in economies where parallel markets for foreign currencies are well established, and where it is therefore to observe underlying capital flows.We show that the direction of real official rate misalignment is identfiable without knowing the size of capital flow in the parallel market. We indicate that a change in the parallel market premium is an appropriate indicator of change in real official rate misalignment