The metabolic syndrome as a predictor of incident diabetes mellitus in Mauritius

Aims : To assess the utility of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a Diabetes Predicting Model as predictors of incident diabetes.Methods : A longitudinal survey was conducted in Mauritius in 1987 (n = 4972; response 80%) and 1992 (n = 3685; follow-up 74.2%). Diabetes status was retrospectively determined using 1999 World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. MetS was determined according to four definitions and sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), specificity and the association with incident diabetes before and after adjustment for MetS components calculated.Results : Of the 3198 at risk, 297 (9.2%) developed diabetes between 1987 and 1992. The WHO MetS definition had the highest prevalence (20.3%), sensitivity (42.1%) and PPV (26.8%) for prediction of incident diabetes, the strongest association with incident diabetes after adjustment for age and sex [odds ratio 4.6 (3.5&ndash;6.0)] and was the only definition to show a significant association after adjustment for its component parts (in men only). The low prevalence and sensitivity of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and ATPIII MetS definitions resulted from waist circumference cut-points that were high for this population, particularly in men, and both were not superior to a diabetes predicting model on receiver operating characteristic analysis.Conclusions : Of the MetS definitions tested, the WHO definition best identifies those who go on to develop diabetes, but is not often used in clinical practice. If cut-points or measures of obesity appropriate for this population were used, the IDF and ATPIII MetS definitions could be recommended as useful tools for prediction of diabetes, given their relative simplicity.<br /

Health and mortality consequences of abdominal obesity: Evidence from the AusDiab study

Objective: To provide an estimate of the morbidity and mortality resulting from abdominal overweight and obesity in the Australian population. Design and setting: Prospective, national, population-based study (the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle [AusDiab] study). Participants: 6072 men and women aged ≥25 years at study entry between May 1999 and December 2000, and aged ≤75 years, not pregnant and for whom there were waist circumference data at the follow-up survey between June 2004 and December 2005. Main outcome measures: Incident health outcomes (type 2 diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, the metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular diseases) at 5 years and mortality at 8 years. Comparison of outcome measures between those classified as abdominally overweight or obese and those with a normal waist circumference at baseline, and across quintiles of waist circumference, and (for mortality only) waist-to-hip ratio. Results: Abdominal obesity was associated with odds ratios of between 2 and 5 for incident type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension and the metabolic syndrome. The risk of myocardial infarction among obese participants was similarly increased in men (hazard ratio [HR], 2.75; 95% CI, 1.08-7.03), but not women (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.37-5.50). Abdominal obesity-related population attributable fractions for these outcomes ranged from 13% to 47%, and were highest for type 2 diabetes. No significant associations were observed between all-cause mortality and increasing quintiles of abdominal obesity. Conclusions: Our findings confirm that abdominal obesity confers a considerably heightened risk for type 2 diabetes, the metabolic syndrome (as well as its components) and cardiovascular disease, and they provide important information that enables a more precise estimate of the burden of disease attributable to obesity in Australia