Climate Change Impact on Aflatoxin Contamination Risk in Malawi's Maize Crops

Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world, with high levels of malnutrition and little domestic mycotoxin regulation. Domestically grown maize is the largest single source of calories in the country and a large contributor to the economy. This research uses Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to determine the climatic conditions in the three regions of Malawi (Northern, Central and Southern) in 2035 (2020\u20132049) and 2055 (2040\u20132069) as compared to the baseline climate of 1971\u20132000. This climatic data is then used as inputs to the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) AquaCrop model to assess the impact on the growth cycle of two maize varieties grown in each region and sown at three different times during the planting season. Finally, AFLA-maize, a mechanistic model, is applied to determine the impact of these projected changes on the aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) contamination risk. We find that Malawi's climate is projected to get warmer (by 1\u20132.5\ub0C) and drier (reduction of 0\u20134% in annual rainfall levels) in all regions, although some uncertainty remains around the changes in precipitation levels. These climatic changes are expected to shorten the growing season for maize, bringing the harvest date forward by between 10 and 25 days for the short-development variety and between 25 and 65 days for the long-development variety. These changes are also projected to make the pre-harvest conditions for Malawian maize more favorable for AFB1 contamination and risk maps for the studied conditions were drawn. Exceedances of EU safety thresholds are expected to be possible in all regions, with the risk of contamination moving northwards in a warming climate

Mycotoxin occurrence in maize produced in Northern Italy over the years 2009–2011: focus on the role of crop related factors

The occurrence of mycotoxins associated with Fusarium spp. and Aspergillus flavus in Northern Italy, and the role of cropping systems, were investigated on 140 field samples collected over the years 2009–2011. Samples were analysed for fumonisins B1 and B2 (FBs), aflatoxins B1, B2, G1 and G2 (AFs), deoxynivalenol (DON) and zearalenone (ZEN) using validated analytical methods. Information on: maize hybrid, preceding crop, tillage applied, mineral nutrition, pest and disease control, severity of European Corn Borer (ECB) attack, sowing and harvesting dates, kernel moisture at harvesting and longitude of the sampled province, were also collected. During this period there were distinct differences in FBs and AFs concentrations between years and geographic origins, and very low contamination with DON and ZEN was always found. The incidence of AFs exceeded 75% across all samples, and was almost 100% for FBs. The meteorological trends were quite different in the 3 years surveyed. 2009 was the coldest in June and the warmest in August, 2010 the most humid, and in 2011 cold weather occurred during flowering and dry conditions during ripening. The run of a logistic equation with the backward stepwise approach selected three parameters, (seeding week, ECB severity and longitude of sampling province) to predict AFB1 contamination and four parameters (year, sowing week, ECB severity and longitude of sampling province) to predict FB contamination. The internal validation gave good results, with 76% correct predictions. The probability of harvesting maize with more than 5 µg kg-1 of AFB1 varied between 86 and 5%, and the probability of harvesting maize with more than 4,000 µg kg-1 of FBs varied between 81 and 2%, respectively, for conducive and non-conducive environments. Therefore, considerable variability was found even if a limited area and only 3 years were considered

OTA-grapes, a mechanistic model to predict ochratoxin A risk in grapes, a step beyond the systems approach.

Ochratoxin A (OTA) is a fungal metabolite dangerous for human and animal health due to its nephrotoxic, immunotoxic, mutagenic, teratogenic and carcinogenic effects, classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in group 2B, possible human carcinogen. This toxin has been stated as a wine contaminant since 1996. The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual model for the dynamic simulation of the A. carbonarius life cycle in grapes along the growing season, including OTA production in berries. Functions describing the role of weather parameters in each step of the infection cycle were developed and organized in a prototype model called OTA-grapes. Modelling the influence of temperature on OTA production, it emerged that fungal strains can be shared in two different clusters, based on the dynamic of OTA production and according to the optimal temperature. Therefore, two functions were developed, and based on statistical data analysis, it was assumed that the two types of strains contribute equally to the population. Model validation was not possible because of poor OTA contamination data, but relevant differences in OTA-I, the output index of the model, were noticed between low and high risk areas. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess/model A. carbonarius in order to predict the risk of OTA contamination in grapes

Aspergillus flavus and Fusarium verticillioides interaction: modeling the impact on mycotoxin production.

The influence of climate change on agricultural systems has been generally accepted as having a considerable impact on food security and safety. It is believed that the occurrence of mycotoxins will be greatly affected by future climate scenarios and this has been confirmed by recent data. Temperature (T) and CO2 increases, variation in rain intensity and distribution, as well as extreme weather events, affect the dominant fungal species in different ways, depending on their ecological needs. Therefore, the aim of this work was to study Aspergillus flavus (Af) and Fusarium verticillioides (Fv) co-occurrence in vitro in order to collect quantitative data on the effect of fungal interaction on growth and mycotoxin production and develop functions for their description. Experimental trials were organized with the cited fungi grown alone or together. They were incubated at different T regimes (10\u201340\ub0C, step 5\ub0C) for 21 days. Fungal growth was measured weekly, while AFs and FBs were quantified at the end of the incubation period. Temperature and incubation time significantly affected fungal growth both for Af and Fv (p 64 0.01), and a significant interaction between T and the presence of one versus both fungi influenced the amount of AFs and FBs produced. Each fungus was affected by the presence of the other fungus; in particular, Af and Fv showed a decrease in colony diameter of 10 and 44%, respectively, when they were grown together, compared to alone. The same influence was not found for mycotoxin production. In fact, the dynamics of toxin production in different temperature regimes followed a comparable trend with fungi grown alone or together, but a significant impact of inoculum 7 temperature interaction was highlighted. Fungal growth and toxin production in different T regimes were well described, both for AFs and FBs, by a Bete function. These results are the first attempt to model mycotoxigenic fungal co-occurrence under several T regimes; this is essential in order to improve effective prediction of growth and mycotoxin production by such fungi

Modeling growth and toxin production of toxigenic fungi signaled in cheese under different temperature and water activity regimes

The aim of this study was to investigate in vitro and model the effect of temperature (T) and water activity (aw) conditions on growth and toxin production by some toxigenic fungi signaled in cheese. Aspergillus versicolor, Penicillium camemberti, P. citrinum, P. crustosum, P. nalgiovense, P. nordicum, P. roqueforti, P. verrucosum were considered they were grown under different T (0–40 °C) and aw (0.78–0.99) regimes. The highest relative growth occurred around 25 °C; all the fungi were very susceptible to aw and 0.99 was optimal for almost all species (except for A. versicolor, aw opt = 0.96). The highest toxin production occurred between 15 and 25 °C and 0.96–0.99 aw. Therefore, during grana cheese ripening, managed between 15 and 22 °C, ochratoxin A (OTA), penitrem A (PA), roquefortine-C (ROQ-C) and mycophenolic acid (MPA) are apparently at the highest production risk. Bete and logistic function described fungal growth under different T and aw regimes well, respectively. Bete function described also STC, PA, ROQ-C and OTA production as well as function of T. These models would be very useful as starting point to develop a mechanistic model to predict fungal growth and toxin production during cheese ripening and to help advising the most proper setting of environmental factors to minimize the contamination risk

Public perception of new plant breeding techniques and the psychosocial determinants of acceptance: A systematic review

Advancements in New Plant Breeding Techniques have emerged as promising tools for enhancing crop productivity, quality, and resilience in the face of global challenges, such as climate change and food security. However, the successful implementation of these techniques relies also on public acceptance of this innovation. Understanding what shapes public perception and acceptance of New Plant Breeding Techniques is crucial for effective science communication, policymaking, and the sustainable adoption of these innovations. The objective of this systematic review was to synthesize existing research on the public perception of New Plant Breeding Techniques applied to food crops and explore the psychosocial determinants that influence acceptance. Twenty papers published between 2015 and 2023 were included on various New Plant Breeding Techniques and their reception by the general public. Determinants affecting the acceptance of food crops derived from New Plant Breeding Techniques were categorized into six areas: sociodemographic factors, perceived benefits and risks, attitudes toward science, communication strategies, personal values, and product characteristics

Biocontrol of Penicillium nordicum Growth and Ochratoxin A Production by Native Yeasts of Dry Cured Ham

Twelve yeast strains isolated from the surface of Italian typical dry-cured hams, belonging to D. hansenii, D. maramus, C. famata, C. zeylanoides and H. burtonii species, and previously selected for their ability to grow in dry-cured ham-like substrates, were screened for antagonistic activity against a toxigenic strain of P. nordicum and inhibition of ochratoxin A (OTA) biosynthesis. On average, yeast inhibitory activity was lowered by increasing fungal inoculum and enhanced by NaCl presence. In the assay conditions, H. burtonii and C. zeylanoides were the most effective, both in inhibiting P. nordicum growth and OTA production. D. hansenii was the species with the lowest inhibitory activity, especially in the absence of salt. OTA production dropped from the range < LOD − 5000 ppb in P. nordicum control plates to the range < LOD − 200 ppb in yeast-added plates. OTA production increased in the presence of NaCl in P. nordicum control plates, while salt enhanced inhibition against OTA production in yeast-added plates

Mycotoxins in cereals: decision support systems development for managing the risk of contamination

Le micotossine sono metaboliti tossici prodotti da funghi in grado di svilupparsi sulle derrate alimentari. Diverse strategie sono state considerate per risolvere questo problema studiando la crescita di funghi/produzione di micotossine. Questa tesi è focalizzata sullo sviluppo/validazione di modelli matematici per prevedere la contaminazione di micotossine (deossinivalenolo, fumonisine e aflatossine) in cereali (mais/grano) sulla base di dati meteorologici. Il primo capitolo fornisce un’introduzione sulla teoria dei modelli e sui pat-sistemi modelizzati. Il secondo si concentra sulla presenza di tricoteceni e zearalenone nel frumento coltivato in Italia. Nel cap.3 sono stati confrontate le differenze predittive di modelli empirici/meccanicistici per la contaminazione di deossinivalenolo nel grano. Nel cap.4 è stata descritta la contaminazione da fumonisine e aflatossine in mais coltivato in Italia. I capitoli 5 e 6 analizzano il pato-sistema mais-Aspergillus flavus, il primo si concentra sulla sporulazione di A. flavus , il secondo sullo sviluppo di un modello per prevedere la contaminazione da aflatossina. Un altro modello meccanicistico per prevedere la presenza di fumonisina nel mais è descritto nel cap.7. L'ultimo capitolo riassume l'attività svolta nel progetto europeo MYCORED in cui sono stati coinvolti diversi paesi in tutto il mondo che hanno fornito i dati necessari per la validazione dei modelli.Mycotoxin are toxic secondary metabolite produced by fungi able to colonize crops and thus posing a potential menace to human/animal health. Several strategies have been considered to mitigate the problem studying the variables related to mould growth and mycotoxin production. This thesis focuses on the development and validation of mechanistic models to predict mycotoxins (deoxinivalenol, fumonisins and aflatoxins) contamination in cereals (maize/ wheat) based on meteorological data. The first chapter introduce modelling theory, and patho-systems analysed. Chapter 2 focuses on trichothecenes and zearalenone occurrence in wheat produced in Italy. Predictive performance of empirical and mechanistic models for deoxnivalenol contamination in wheat were discussed in chapter 3. Chapter 4 described fumonisins and aflatoxins occurrence in maize grown in Italy. Chapters 5 and 6 analised the patho-system maize-Aspergillus flavus; the former focuses on the dynamics of A. flavus sporulation the lalatter on the development of a mechanistic model to predict aflatoxin produced by A. falvus. Another mechanistic model for Fusarium ear rot and fumosin production in maize (chapter 7). The last chapter summarised the activity done in the European project MYCORED in which several countries worldwide were involved and wheat and/or maize samples collected with data necessary for model validation

OTA-Grapes: A Mechanistic Model to Predict Ochratoxin A Risk in Grapes, a Step beyond the Systems Approach

Ochratoxin A (OTA) is a fungal metabolite dangerous for human and animal health due to its nephrotoxic, immunotoxic, mutagenic, teratogenic and carcinogenic effects, classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in group 2B, possible human carcinogen. This toxin has been stated as a wine contaminant since 1996. The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual model for the dynamic simulation of the A. carbonarius life cycle in grapes along the growing season, including OTA production in berries. Functions describing the role of weather parameters in each step of the infection cycle were developed and organized in a prototype model called OTA-grapes. Modelling the influence of temperature on OTA production, it emerged that fungal strains can be shared in two different clusters, based on the dynamic of OTA production and according to the optimal temperature. Therefore, two functions were developed, and based on statistical data analysis, it was assumed that the two types of strains contribute equally to the population. Model validation was not possible because of poor OTA contamination data, but relevant differences in OTA-I, the output index of the model, were noticed between low and high risk areas. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess/model A. carbonarius in order to predict the risk of OTA contamination in grapes

Modelling Fungal Growth, Mycotoxin Production and Release in Grana Cheese

No information is available in the literature about the influence of temperature (T) on Penicillium and Aspergillus spp. growth and mycotoxin production on cheese rinds. The aim of this work was to: (i) study fungal ecology on cheese in terms of T requirements, focusing on the partitioning of mycotoxins between the rind and mycelium; and (ii) validate predictive models previously developed by in vitro trials. Grana cheese rind blocks were inoculated with A. versicolor, P. crustosum, P. nordicum, P. roqueforti, and P. verrucosum, incubated at different T regimes (10&ndash;30 &deg;C, step 5 &deg;C) and after 14 days the production of mycotoxins (ochratoxin A (OTA); sterigmatocystin (STC); roquefortine C (ROQ-C), mycophenolic acid (MPA), Pr toxin (PR-Tox), citrinin (CIT), cyclopiazonic acid (CPA)) was quantified. All the fungi grew optimally around 15&ndash;25 &deg;C and produced the expected mycotoxins (except MPA, Pr-Tox, and CIT). The majority of the mycotoxins produced remained in the mycelium (~90%) in three out of five fungal species (P. crustosum, P. nordicum, and P. roqueforti); the opposite occurred for A. versicolor and P. verrucosum with 71% and 58% of STC and OTA detected in cheese rind, respectively. Available predictive models fitted fungal growth on the cheese rind well, but validation was not possible for mycotoxins because they were produced in a very narrow T range