Simulating extended reproduction: Poverty reduction and class dynamics in Bolivia

An extended reproduction model is used to simulate the effects of alternative poverty reduction strategies. Three policy variables are introduced: (de)indebtedness policy, investment policy and income distribution policy, contributing respectively to the objectives of policy sovereignty, structural change and social justice. The Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty by 2015 seems to be a difficult, but attainable goal for Bolivia. The model shows also the effects of poverty reduction strategies on the different social classes.industrial policy, income distribution, economic development, investment planning

Climate Change and Extreme Events: an Assessment of Economic Implications

We use a general equilibrium model of the world economy, and a regional economic growth model, to assess the economic implications of vulnerability from extreme meteorological events, induced by the climate change. In particular, we first consider the impact of climate change on ENSO and NAO oceanic oscillations and, subsequently, the implied variation on regional expected damages. We found that expected damages from extreme events are increasing in the United States, Europe and Russia, and decreasing in energy exporting countries. Two economic implications are taken into account: (1) short-term impacts, due to changes in the demand structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (2) variations in regional economic growth paths. We found that indirect stort-term effects(variations in savings due to higher or lower likelihood of natural disasters) can have an impact on regional economies, whose order of magnitude is comparable to the one of direct damages. On the other hand, we highlight that higher vulnerability from extreme events translates into higher volatility in the economic growth path, and vice versa.Climate Change, Extreme Events, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Precautionary Savings, Economic Growth

Desnutrición en Bolivia: la geografía y la cultura sí importan

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La frecuencia de problemas de salud y de desnutrición en Bolivia es alarmantemente elevada, incluso comparada con la de otros países en desarrollo. En este estudio se analiza el vínculo entre una medida bidimensional de la salud infantil, compuesta por los puntajes z de estatura y peso, y un conjunto de factores determinantes de la nutrición infantil relacionados con los contextos físico y cultural, las características de la madre, los activos del hogar y el acceso a los servicios públicos. Se procura identificar los principales factores que determinan la salud del niño y cuantificar el efecto de cada uno de ellos en cuanto al indicador bidimensional. Se adopta una estrategia secuencial para poder calcular un modelo lineal de dos ecuaciones con términos de error correlacionado. Un hallazgo importante es que las variables geográficas y culturales son factores determinantes significativos del estado de nutrición, y que las características antropométricas de la madre desempeñan un papel considerable. Se emplean datos de una encuesta demográfica y de salud de más de 3. 000 niños.

Poverty and class: Dynamics and strategies in Bolivia

Income distribution among social classes, a preferred topic by the classical economists, has not often been frequented by later scholars. Some recent studies show a new interest, and a generalized increase in income concentration in favor of the capitalist class, particularly in Latin America. This study uses a multisectoral dynamic simulation model to analize the effects of poverty reduction strategies on the different social classes. The model describes in detail the size income distribution by sector, and transforms it in a sectorial class distribution of incomes. A strategy includes two instruments: investment policy, and income distribution policy, influencing respectively output structure and personal income distribution. The study shows the effects on the different social classes of strategies aiming to achieve the Millennium objective of halving extreme poverty by 2015.industrial policy, income distribution, economic development, investment planning

Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Two possible adaptation options to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles irrigated areas in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25 percent for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation model, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, considering detailed wateragriculture linkages with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the low initial irrigated areas inthe region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated areas. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production or irrigated food production, both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.Computable General Equilibrium, Climate Change, Agriculture, Sub-Saharan Africa, Integrated Assessment Model

La pobreza y las clases: Dinámicas y estrategias en Bolivia

Income distribution among social classes, a preferred topic by the classical economists, has not often been frequented by later scholars. Some recent studies show a new interest, and a generalized increase in income concentration in favor of the capitalist class, particularly in Latin America. This study uses a multisectoral dynamic simulation model to analize the effects of poverty reduction strategies on the different social classes. The model describes in detail the size income distribution by sector, and transforms it in a sectorial class distribution of incomes. A strategy includes two instruments: investment policy, and income distribution policy, influencing respectively output structure and personal income distribution. The study shows the effects on the different social classes of strategies aiming to achieve the Millennium objective of halving extreme poverty by 2015

Simulating extended reproduction: Poverty reduction and class dynamics in Bolivia

An extended reproduction model is used to simulate the effects of alternative poverty reduction strategies. Three policy variables are introduced: (de)indebtedness policy, investment policy and income distribution policy, contributing respectively to the objectives of policy sovereignty, structural change and social justice. The Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty by 2015 seems to be a difficult, but attainable goal for Bolivia. The model shows also the effects of poverty reduction strategies on the different social classes

La pobreza y las clases: Dinámicas y estrategias en Bolivia

Income distribution among social classes, a preferred topic by the classical economists, has not often been frequented by later scholars. Some recent studies show a new interest, and a generalized increase in income concentration in favor of the capitalist class, particularly in Latin America. This study uses a multisectoral dynamic simulation model to analize the effects of poverty reduction strategies on the different social classes. The model describes in detail the size income distribution by sector, and transforms it in a sectorial class distribution of incomes. A strategy includes two instruments: investment policy, and income distribution policy, influencing respectively output structure and personal income distribution. The study shows the effects on the different social classes of strategies aiming to achieve the Millennium objective of halving extreme poverty by 2015

Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.Computable General Equilibrium, Climate Change, Agriculture, Water Resources, River Flow