The role of rare avian species for spatial resilience of shifting biomes in the Great Plains of North America

Human activity causes biome shifts that alter biodiversity and spatial resilience patterns. Rare species, often considered vulnerable to change and endangered, can be a critical element of resilience by providing adaptive capacity in response to disturbances. However, little is known about changes in rarity patterns of communities once a biome transitions into a novel spatial regime. We used time series modeling to identify rare avian species in an expanding terrestrial (southern) spatial regime in the North American Great Plains and another (northern) regime that will become encroached by the southern regime in the near future. In this time-explicit approach, presumably rare species show stochastic dynamics in relative abundance – this is because they occur only rarely throughout the study period, may largely be absent but show occasional abundance peaks or show a combination of these patterns. We specifically assessed how stochastic/rare species of the northern spatial regime influence aspects of ecological resilience once it has been encroached by the southern regime. Using 47 years (1968–2014) of breeding bird survey data and a space-for-time substitution, we found that the overall contribution of stochastic/rare species to the avian community of the southern regime was low. Also, none of these species were of conservation concern, suggesting limited need for revised species conservation action in the novel spatial regime. From a systemic perspective, our results preliminarily suggest that stochastic/rare species only marginally contribute to resilience in a new spatial regime after fundamental ecological changes have occurred

How do ecological resilience metrics relate to community stability and collapse?

The concept of ecological resilience (the amount of disturbance a system can absorb before collapsing and reorganizing) holds potential for predicting community change and collapse—increasingly common issues in the Anthropocene. Yet neither the predictions nor metrics of resilience have received rigorous testing. The crossscale resilience model, a leading operationalization of resilience, proposes resilience can be quantified by the combination of diversity and redundancy of functions performed by species operating at different scales. Here, we use 48 years of sub-continental avian community data aggregated at multiple spatial scales to calculate resilience metrics derived from the cross-scale resilience model (i.e., cross-scale diversity, cross-scale redundancy, within-scale redundancy, and number of body mass aggregations) and test core predictions inherent to community persistence and change. Specifically, we ask how cross-scale resilience metrics relate community stability and collapse. We found low mean cross-correlation between species richness and cross-scale resilience metrics. Resilience metrics constrained the magnitude of community fluctuations over time (mean species turnover), but resilience metrics but did not influence variability of community fluctuations (variance in turnover). We show shifts in resilience metrics closely predict community collapse: shifts in cross-scale redundancy preceded abrupt changes in community composition, and shifts in cross-scale diversity synchronized with abrupt changes in community composition. However, we found resilience metrics only weakly relate to maintenance of particular species assemblages over time. Our results distinguish ecological resilience from ecological stability and allied concepts such as elasticity and resistance: we show communities may fluctuate widely yet still be resilient. Our findings also differentiate the roles of functional redundancy and diversity as metrics of resilience and reemphasize the importance of considering resilience metrics from a multivariate perspective. Finally, we support the contention that ecological stability is nested within ecological resilience: stability predicts the behavior of systems within an ecological regime, and resilience predicts the maintenance of regimes and behavior of systems collapsing into alternative regimes

The Science of Open Spaces: Theory and Practice for Conserving Large, Complex Systems. Charles G. Curtin.

The phrase “open spaces,” may bring to mind expansive tracts of prairie, rangeland, or even desert, stretching lonely and unchanged to the horizon. Open spaces also could conjure open oceans or interstitial rural lands between urbanized hubs, dotted with farms, fields, and woodlands. In an abstract sense, open spaces could represent gaps in human understanding or blank spaces on a map. In his book The Science of Open Spaces, landscape ecologist Charles Curtin combines all these perspectives, expanding the definition of “open spaces” to multi-layered and multi-scaled complex systems that are “greater than the sum of their parts.” He populates these vastnesses with the diversity of species, hierarchy of biotic and abiotic interactions, and human social elements that comprise and link open spaces together as social-ecological systems. The Science of Open Spaces provides readers with a roadmap to 21st century land management, where the stakes are high, collaboration is crucial, and profound uncertainty in the face of the complexity often hampers decision-making

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader (Juniperus virginiana) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services

Ponderosa Pine Regeneration,Wildland Fuels Management, and Habitat Conservation: Identifying Trade-Offs Following Wildfire

Increasing wildfires in western North American conifer forests have led to debates surrounding the application of post-fire management practices. There is a lack of consensus on whether (and to what extent) post-fire management assists or hinders managers in achieving goals, particularly in under-studied regions like eastern ponderosa pine forests. This makes it difficult for forest managers to balance among competing interests. We contrast structural and community characteristics across unburned ponderosa pine forest, severely burned ponderosa pine forest, and severely burned ponderosa pine forest treated with post-fire management with respect to three management objectives: ponderosa pine regeneration, wildland fuels control, and habitat conservation. Ponderosa pine saplings were more abundant in treated burned sites than untreated burned sites, suggesting increases in tree regeneration following tree planting; however, natural regeneration was evident in both unburned and untreated burned sites. Wildland fuels management greatly reduced snags and coarse woody debris in treated burned sites. Understory cover measurements revealed bare ground and fine woody debris were more strongly associated with untreated burned sites, and greater levels of forbs and grass were more strongly associated with treated burned sites. Wildlife habitat was greatly reduced following post-fire treatments. There were no tree cavities in treated burned sites, whereas untreated burned sites had an average of 27 ± 7.68 cavities per hectare. Correspondingly, we found almost double the avian species richness in untreated burned sites compared to treated burned sites (22 species versus 12 species). Unburned forests and untreated burned areas had the same species richness, but hosted unique avian communities. Our results indicate conflicting outcomes with respect to management objectives, most evident in the clear costs to habitat conservation following post-fire management application

Herbaceous production lost to tree encroachment in United States rangelands

1. Rangelands of the United States provide ecosystem services that benefit society and rural economies. Native tree encroachment is often overlooked as a primary threat to rangelands due to the slow pace of tree cover expansion and the positive public perception of trees. Still, tree encroachment fragments these landscapes and reduces herbaceous production, thereby threatening habitat quality for grassland wildlife and the economic sustainability of animal agriculture. 2. Recent innovations in satellite remote sensing permit the tracking of tree encroachment and the corresponding impact on herbaceous production. We analysed tree cover change and herbaceous production across the western United States from 1990 to 2019. 3. We show that tree encroachment is widespread in US rangelands; absolute tree cover has increased by 50% (77,323 km2) over 30 years, with more than 25% (684,852 km2) of US rangeland area experiencing tree cover expansion. Since 1990, 302 ± 30 Tg of herbaceous biomass have been lost. Accounting for variability in livestock biomass utilization and forage value reveals that this lost production is valued at between $4.1–$ 5.6 billion US dollars. 4. Synthesis and applications. The magnitude of impact of tree encroachment on rangeland loss is similar to conversion to cropland, another well-known and primary mechanism of rangeland loss in the US Prioritizing conservation efforts to prevent tree encroachment can bolster ecosystem and economic sustainability, particularly among privately-owned lands threatened by land-use conversion

Tracking spatial regimes in animal communities: Implications for resilience-based management

Spatial regimes (the spatial extents of ecological states) exhibit strong spatiotemporal order as they expand or contract in response to retreating or encroaching adjacent spatial regimes (e.g., woody plant invasion of grasslands) and human management (e.g., fire treatments). New methods enable tracking spatial regime boundaries via vegetation landcover data, and this approach is being used for strategic management across biomes. A clear advancement would be incorporating animal community data to track spatial regime boundaries alongside vegetation data. In a 41,170-hectare grassland experiencing woody plant encroachment, we test the utility of using animal community data to track spatial regimes via two hypotheses. (H1) Spatial regime boundaries identified via independent vegetation and animal datasets will exhibit spatial synchrony; specifically, grassland:woodland bird community boundaries will synchronize with grass:woody vegetation boundaries. (H2) Negative feedbacks will stabilize spatial regimes identified via animal data; specifically, frequent fire treatments will stabilize grassland bird community boundaries. We used 26 years of bird community and vegetation data alongside 32 years of fire history data. We identified spatial regime boundaries with bird community data via a wombling approach. We identified spatial regime boundaries with vegetation data by calculating spatial covariance between remotely-sensed grass and woody plant cover per pixel. For fire history data, we calculated the cumulative number of fires per pixel. Setting bird boundary strength (wombling R2 values) as the response variable, we tested our hypotheses with a hierarchical generalized additive model (HGAM). Both hypotheses were supported: animal boundaries synchronized with vegetation boundaries in space and time, and grassland bird communities stabilized as fire frequency increased (HGAM explained 38% of deviance). We can now track spatial regimes via animal community data pixel-by-pixel and year-by-year. Alongside vegetation boundary tracking, tracking animal community boundaries can inform the scale of management necessary to maintain animal communities endemic to desirable ecological states. Our approach will be especially useful for conserving animal communities requiring large-scale, unfragmented landscapes—like grasslands and steppes

Impact of β-lactam antibiotic therapeutic drug monitoring on dose adjustments in critically ill patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy

The objective of this study was to describe the effect of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and dose adjustments of β-lactam antibiotics administered to critically ill patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in a 30-bed tertiary intensive care unit (ICU). β-Lactam TDM data in our tertiary referral ICU were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical, demographic and dosing data were collected for patients administered β-lactam antibiotics while undergoing CRRT. The target trough concentration range was 1–10× the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). A total of 111 TDM samples from 76 patients (46 male) with a mean ± standard deviation age of 56.6 ± 15.9 years and weight of 89.1 ± 25.8 kg were identified. The duration of antibiotic therapy was between 2 days and 42 days. TDM identified a need for dose modification of β-lactam antibiotics in 39 (35%) instances; in 27 (24%) samples, TDM values resulted in decreasing the prescribed dose of β-lactam antibiotic whereas an increase in the prescribed dose occurred in 12 (11%) cases. In patients treated for hospital-acquired pneumonia and primary or secondary bacteraemia, the dose was required to be decreased in 10/25 (40%) and 7/46 (15%) cases, respectively, to attain target concentrations. β-Lactam TDM is a useful tool for guiding drug dosing in complex patients such as those receiving CRRT. Although over one-third of patients manifested concentrations outside the therapeutic range, most of these CRRT patients had excessive β-lactam concentrations

Tracking spatial regimes in animal communities: Implications for resilience-based management

Spatial regimes (the spatial extents of ecological states) exhibit strong spatiotemporal order as they expand or contract in response to retreating or encroaching adjacent spatial regimes (e.g., woody plant invasion of grasslands) and human management (e.g., fire treatments). New methods enable tracking spatial regime boundaries via vegetation landcover data, and this approach is being used for strategic management across biomes. A clear advancement would be incorporating animal community data to track spatial regime boundaries alongside vegetation data. In a 41,170-hectare grassland experiencing woody plant encroachment, we test the utility of using animal community data to track spatial regimes via two hypotheses. (H1) Spatial regime boundaries identified via independent vegetation and animal datasets will exhibit spatial synchrony; specifically, grassland:woodland bird community boundaries will synchronize with grass:woody vegetation boundaries. (H2) Negative feedbacks will stabilize spatial regimes identified via animal data; specifically, frequent fire treatments will stabilize grassland bird community boundaries. We used 26 years of bird community and vegetation data alongside 32 years of fire history data. We identified spatial regime boundaries with bird community data via a wombling approach. We identified spatial regime boundaries with vegetation data by calculating spatial covariance between remotely-sensed grass and woody plant cover per pixel. For fire history data, we calculated the cumulative number of fires per pixel. Setting bird boundary strength (wombling R2 values) as the response variable, we tested our hypotheses with a hierarchical generalized additive model (HGAM). Both hypotheses were supported: animal boundaries synchronized with vegetation boundaries in space and time, and grassland bird communities stabilized as fire frequency increased (HGAM explained 38% of deviance). We can now track spatial regimes via animal community data pixel-by-pixel and year-by-year. Alongside vegetation boundary tracking, tracking animal community boundaries can inform the scale of management necessary to maintain animal communities endemic to desirable ecological states. Our approach will be especially useful for conserving animal communities requiring large-scale, unfragmented landscapes—like grasslands and steppes

Next-generation technologies unlock new possibilities to track rangeland productivity and quantify multi-scale conservation outcomes

Historically, relying on plot-level inventories impeded our ability to quantify large-scale change in plant biomass, a key indicator of conservation practice outcomes in rangeland systems. Recent technological advances enable assessment at scales appropriate to inform management by providing spatially comprehensive estimates of productivity that are partitioned by plant functional group across all contiguous US rangelands. We partnered with the Sage Grouse and Lesser Prairie-Chicken Initiatives and the Nebraska Natural Legacy Project to demonstrate the ability of these new datasets to quantify multi-scale changes and heterogeneity in plant biomass following mechanical tree removal, prescribed fire, and prescribed grazing. In Oregon’s sagebrush steppe, for example, juniper tree removal resulted in a 21% increase in one pasture’s productivity and an 18% decline in another. In Nebraska’s Loess Canyons, perennial grass productivity initially declined 80% at sites invaded by trees that were prescriptively burned, but then fully recovered post-fire, representing a 492% increase from nadir. In Kansas’ Shortgrass Prairie, plant biomass increased 4-fold (966,809 kg/ha) in pastures that were prescriptively grazed, with gains highly dependent upon precipitation as evidenced by sensitivity of remotely sensed estimates (SD ± 951,308 kg/ha). Our results emphasize that next-generation remote sensing datasets empower land managers to move beyond simplistic control versus treatment study designs to explore nuances in plant biomass in unprecedented ways. The products of new remote sensing technologies also accelerate adaptive management and help communicate wildlife and livestock forage benefits from management to diverse stakeholders