Towards a future singularity?

We discuss whether the future extrapolation of the present cosmological state may lead to a singularity even in case of "conventional" (negative) pressure of the dark energy field, namely $w=p/\rho \geq -1$. The discussion is based on an often neglected aspect of scalar-tensor models of gravity: the fact that different test particles may follow the geodesics of different metric frames, and the need for a frame-independent regularization of curvature singularities.Comment: 8 pages. Essay written for the "2004 Awards for Essays on Gravitation" (Gravity Research Foundation, Wellesley Hills, MA, USA), and selected for "Honorable Mention

Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation Anisotropy Induced by Cosmic Strings

We report on a current investigation of the anisotropy pattern induced by cosmic strings on the cosmic microwave background radiation (MBR). We have numerically evolved a network of cosmic strings from a redshift of $Z = 100$ to the present and calculated the anisotropies which they induce. Based on a limited number of realizations, we have compared the results of our simulations with the observations of the COBE-DMR experiment. We have obtained a preliminary estimate of the string mass-per-unit-length $\mu$ in the cosmic string scenario.Comment: 8 pages of TeX - [Color] Postscript available by anonymous ftp at ftp://fnas08.fnal.gov:/pub/Publications/Conf-94-197-A, FERMILAB-Conf-94/197-

Formation of Black Holes from Collapsed Cosmic String Loops

The fraction of cosmic string loops which collapse to form black holes is estimated using a set of realistic loops generated by loop fragmentation. The smallest radius sphere into which each cosmic string loop may fit is obtained by monitoring the loop through one period of oscillation. For a loop with invariant length $L$ which contracts to within a sphere of radius $R$, the minimum mass-per-unit length $\mu_{\rm min}$ necessary for the cosmic string loop to form a black hole according to the hoop conjecture is $\mu_{\rm min} = R /(2 G L)$. Analyzing $25,576$ loops, we obtain the empirical estimate $f_{\rm BH} = 10^{4.9\pm 0.2} (G\mu)^{4.1 \pm 0.1}$ for the fraction of cosmic string loops which collapse to form black holes as a function of the mass-per-unit length $\mu$ in the range $10^{-3} \lesssim G\mu \lesssim 3 \times 10^{-2}$. We use this power law to extrapolate to $G\mu \sim 10^{-6}$, obtaining the fraction $f_{\rm BH}$ of physically interesting cosmic string loops which collapse to form black holes within one oscillation period of formation. Comparing this fraction with the observational bounds on a population of evaporating black holes, we obtain the limit $G\mu \le 3.1 (\pm 0.7) \times 10^{-6}$ on the cosmic string mass-per-unit-length. This limit is consistent with all other observational bounds.Comment: uuencoded, compressed postscript; 20 pages including 7 figure

Home accidents amongst elderly people: A locality study in Scotland

Aim The aim of this locality study was to collect information on reported and unreported accidents amongst elderly people living in one locality in Scotland. Method Postal Survey- A postal questionnaire was sent to 3,757 men and women aged 65+ years living in one locality. The questionnaire asked respondents to indicate how many accidents they had experienced in the past twelve months, plus to indicate type and location. Information was gathered on living arrangements, ethnicity, gender, age and deprivation. Respondents were asked if they would be willing to take part in an interview study. Interview Study - One hundred elders who had had at least one accident in the previous twelve months were interviewed. Results Postal Survey - Over a third of the respondents in the postal survey reported having had an accident in the previous twelve months. Bumps and drops and falls were the most common type of accident. Most accidents happened in the kitchen. Women reported more falls than men and those living alone reported more accidents than those living with others. Age was associated with the prevalence of accidents, but the association was somewhat curvilinear, with accidents decreasing with age and then increasing again. Interview Study – Interviewees found it hard to differentiate one accident from another. Considerable reluctance to visit the GP after an accident was noted, with many not attending even for serious accidents. Almost forty percent were ‘very’ distressed after their accident, and a quarter reported a loss of confidence. However, most did not worry about accidents. Few thought that their age, health or medications were a cause of their accidents

The Influence of Signaling Conspecific and Heterospecific Neighbors on Eavesdropper Pressure

The study of tradeoffs between the attraction of mates and the attraction of eavesdropping predators and parasites has generally focused on a single species of prey, signaling in isolation. In nature, however, animals often signal from mixed-species aggregations, where interactions with heterospecific group members may be an important mechanism modulating tradeoffs between sexual and natural selection, and thus driving signal evolution. Although studies have shown that conspecific signalers can influence eavesdropper pressure on mating signals, the effects of signaling heterospecifics on eavesdropper pressure, and on the balance between natural and sexual selection, are likely to be different. Here, we review the role of neighboring signalers in mediating changes in eavesdropper pressure, and present a simple model that explores how selection imposed by eavesdropping enemies varies as a function of a signaling aggregation\u27s species composition, the attractiveness of aggregation members to eavesdroppers, and the eavesdroppers\u27 preferences for different member types. This approach can be used to model mixed-species signaling aggregations, as well as same-species aggregations, including those with non-signaling individuals, such as satellites or females. We discuss the implications of our model for the evolution of signal structure, signaling behavior, mixed-species aggregations, and community dynamics

Exact Perturbations for inflation with smooth exit

Toy models for the Hubble rate or the scalar field potential have been used to analyze the amplification of scalar perturbations through a smooth transition from inflation to the radiation era. We use a Hubble rate that arises consistently from a decaying vacuum cosmology, which evolves smoothly from nearly de Sitter inflation to radiation domination. We find exact solutions for super-horizon perturbations (scalar and tensor), and for sub-horizon perturbations in the vacuum- and radiation-dominated eras. The standard conserved quantity for super-horizon scalar perturbations is exactly constant for growing modes, and zero for the decaying modes.Comment: Minor errors correcte

Cosmology with velocity dispersion counts: an alternative to measuring cluster halo masses

The evolution of galaxy cluster counts is a powerful probe of several fundamental cosmological parameters. A number of recent studies using this probe have claimed tension with the cosmology preferred by the analysis of the Planck primary CMB data, in the sense that there are fewer clusters observed than predicted based on the primary CMB cosmology. One possible resolution to this problem is systematic errors in the absolute halo mass calibration in cluster studies, which is required to convert the standard theoretical prediction (the halo mass function) into counts as a function of the observable (e.g., X-ray luminosity, Sunyaev-Zel'dovich flux, optical richness). Here we propose an alternative strategy, which is to directly compare predicted and observed cluster counts as a function of the one-dimensional velocity dispersion of the cluster galaxies. We argue that the velocity dispersion of groups/clusters can be theoretically predicted as robustly as mass but, unlike mass, it can also be directly observed, thus circumventing the main systematic bias in traditional cluster counts studies. With the aid of the BAHAMAS suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, we demonstrate the potential of the velocity dispersion counts for discriminating even similar $\Lambda$CDM models. These predictions can be compared with the results from existing redshift surveys such as the highly-complete Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, and upcoming wide-field spectroscopic surveys such as the Wide Area Vista Extragalactic Survey (WAVES) and the Dark Energy Survey Instrument (DESI).Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. New section on cosmological forecasts adde