A comparison of variable valve strategies at part load for throttled and un-throttled SI engine configurations

The presented work concerns the study of the fuel consumption and emissions benefits achieved at part load by employing a fully variable valve train in a 1.6L SI gasoline engine. The benefits achieved when using variable valve timing alone, and combined with an early intake closing strategy for un-throttled operation were explored in order to highlight the merits of throttle versus un-throttled engine operation in conjunction with variable valve timing and lift. In addition, particular interest was given to the presence of internal Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) and its ability to reduce pumping loss at part load. An engine model employing multiple sub models to handle variable valve operation was constructed using a commercial gas dynamics engine code, allowing detailed analysis of three valve strategies. Using the engine model, a theoretical study validated by experimentally available data was carried out to study key valve timing cases. A detailed breakdown of the mechanisms present in each case allowed a comprehensive understanding of the influence of valve timing on gas exchange efficiency and fuel consumption

The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

Covid-19 has predominantly affected mortality at high ages. It kills by inflaming and clogging the air sacs in the lungs, depriving the body of oxygen ‒ inducing hypoxia ‒ which closes down essential organs, in particular the heart, kidneys and liver, and causes blood clots (which can lead to stroke or pulmonary embolism) and neurological malfunction. Evidence from different countries points to the fact that people who die from Covid-19 are often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group. This is true for England & Wales – the two countries we focus on in this study. The implication is that the years of life lost through early death are less than the average for each age group, with how much less being a source of considerable debate. We argue that many of those who die from coronavirus would have died anyway in the relatively near future due to their existing frailties or co-morbidities. We demonstrate how to capture this link to poorer-than-average health using a model in which individual deaths are ‘accelerated’ ahead of schedule due to Covid-19. The model structure and its parameterization build on the observation that Covid-19 mortality by age is approximately proportional to all-cause mortality. This, in combination with current predictions of total deaths, results in the important conclusion that, everything else being equal, the impact of Covid-19 on the mortality rates of the surviving population will be very modest. Specifically, the degree of anti-selection is likely to be very small, since the life expectancy of survivors does not increase by a significant amount over pre-pandemic levels. We also analyze the degree to which Covid-19 mortality varies with socio-economic status. Headline statistics suggest that the most deprived groups have been disproportionately affected by Covid-19. However, once we control for regional differences in mortality rates, Covid-19 deaths in both the most and least deprived groups are also proportional to the all-cause mortality of these groups. However, the groups in between have approximately 10-15% lower Covid-19 deaths compared with their all-cause mortality. We argue that useful lessons about the potential pattern of accelerated deaths from Covid-19 can be drawn from examining deaths from respiratory diseases, especially at different age ranges. We also argue that it is possible to draw useful lessons about volatility spikes in Covid-19 deaths from examining past seasonal flu epidemics. However, there is an important difference. Whereas the spikes in seasonal flu increase with age, our finding that Covid-19 death rates are approximately proportional to all-cause mortality suggests that any spike in Covid-19 mortality in percentage terms would be similar across all age ranges. Finally, we discuss some of the indirect consequences for future mortality of the pandemic and the ‘lockdown’ measures governments have imposed to contain it. For example, there is evidence that some surviving patients at all ages who needed intensive care could end up with a new impairment, such as organ damage, which will reduce their life expectancy. There is also evidence that many people in lockdown did not seek a timely medical assessment for a potential new illness, such as cancer, or deferred seeking treatment for an existing serious illness, with the consequence that non-Covid-19-related mortality rates could increase in future. Self-isolation during lockdown has contributed to an increase in alcohol and drug consumption by some people which might, in turn, reduce their life expectancy. If another consequence of the pandemic is a recession and/or an acceleration in job automation, resulting in long-term unemployment, then this could lead to so-called ‘deaths of despair’ in future. Other people, by contrast, might permanently change their social behaviour or seek treatments that delay the impact or onset of age-related diseases, one of the primary factors that make people more susceptible to the virus – both of which could have the effect of increasing their life expectancy. It is, however, too early to quantify these possibilities, although it is conceivable that these indirect consequences could have a bigger impact on future average life expectancy than the direct consequences measured by the accelerated deaths model

Simultaneous multi-frequency single-pulse properties of AXP XTE J1810-197

We have used the 76-m Lovell, 94-m equivalent WSRT and 100-m Effelsberg radio telescopes to investigate the simultaneous single-pulse properties of the radio emitting magnetar AXP XTE J1810-197 at frequencies of 1.4, 4.8 and 8.35 GHz during May and July 2006. We study the magnetar's pulse-energy distributions which are found to be very peculiar as they are changing on time-scales of days and cannot be fit by a single statistical model. The magnetar exhibits strong spiky single giant-pulse-like subpulses, but they do not fit the definition of the giant pulse or giant micropulse phenomena. Measurements of the longitude-resolved modulation index reveal a high degree of intensity fluctuations on day-to-day time-scales and dramatic changes across pulse phase. We find the frequency evolution of the modulation index values differs significantly from what is observed in normal radio pulsars. We find that no regular drifting subpulse phenomenon is present at any of the observed frequencies at any observing epoch. However, we find a quasi-periodicity of the subpulses present in the majority of the observing sessions. A correlation analysis indicates a relationship between components from different frequencies. We discuss the results of our analysis in light of the emission properties of normal radio pulsars and a recently proposed model which takes radio emission from magnetars into consideration.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication by MNRA

Phase and Intensity Distributions of Individual Pulses of PSR B0950+08

The distribution of the intensities of individual pulses of PSR B0950+08 as a function of the longitudes at which they appear is analyzed. The flux density of the pulsar at 111 MHz varies strongly from day to day (by up to a factor of 13) due to the passage of the radiation through the interstellar plasma (interstellar scintillation). The intensities of individual pulses can exceed the amplitude of the mean pulse profile, obtained by accumulating 770 pulses, by more than an order of magnitude. The intensity distribution along the mean profile is very different for weak and strong pulses. The differential distribution function for the intensities is a power law with index n = -1.1 +- 0.06 up to peak flux densities for individual pulses of the order of 160 Jy

A New Look at Mode Conversion in a Stratified Isothermal Atmosphere

Recent numerical investigations of wave propagation near coronal magnetic null points (McLaughlin and Hood: Astron. Astrophys. 459, 641,2006) have indicated how a fast MHD wave partially converts into a slow MHD wave as the disturbance passes from a low-beta plasma to a high-beta plasma. This is a complex process and a clear understanding of the conversion mechanism requires the detailed investigation of a simpler model. An investigation of mode conversion in a stratified, isothermal atmosphere, with a uniform, vertical magnetic field is carried out, both numerically and analytically. In contrast to previous investigations of upward-propagating waves (Zhugzhda and Dzhalilov: Astron. Astrophys. 112, 16, 1982a; Cally: Astrophys. J. 548, 473, 2001), this paper studies the downward propagation of waves from a low-beta to high-beta environment. A simple expression for the amplitude of the transmitted wave is compared with the numerical solution.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System Facilitates Shrub Establishment in Northern Alaska

The Arctic tundra is undergoing many environmental changes in addition to increasing temperatures: these changes include permafrost degradation and increased shrubification. Disturbances related to infrastructure can also lead to similar environmental changes. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) is an example of infrastructure that has made a major imprint on the Alaskan landscape. This paper assesses changes in shrub presence along the northernmost 255 km of the TAPS. We used historical satellite imagery from before construction of the TAPS in 1974 and contemporary satellite imagery from 2010 to 2016 to examine changes in shrub presence over time. We found a 51.8% increase in shrub presence adjacent to the pipeline compared to 2.6% in control areas. Additionally, shrub presence has increased significantly more in areas where the pipeline is buried, indicating that the disturbances linked to pipeline burial have likely created favorable conditions for shrub colonization. These results are important for predicting potential responses of tundra vegetation to disturbance, which will be crucial to forecasting the future of Arctic tundra vegetation.La toundra de l’Arctique fait l’objet de nombreux changements environnementaux, sans compter que les températures augmentent. Ces changements touchent notamment la dégradation du pergélisol et l’intensification des arbustaies. Les perturbations découlant des infrastructures peuvent également entraîner des changements environnementaux semblables. Le réseau pipelinier transalaskien (TAPS) est un exemple d’infrastructure qui a laissé d’importantes traces sur le paysage de l’Alaska. Dans cet article, nous abordons les changements concernant les arbustes sur le tronçon de 255 km le plus au nord du TAPS. Nous nous sommes servis d’images satellitaires historiques datant d’avant la construction du TAPS en 1974 ainsi que d’images satellitaires contemporaines pour la période allant de 2010 à 2016 pour examiner les changements caractérisant les arbustes au fil des ans. Nous avons constaté une augmentation de 51,8 % pour ce qui est de la présence d’arbustes adjacents au pipeline, comparativement à 2,6 % dans les aires de contrôle. De plus, la présence d’arbustes a augmenté beaucoup plus là où le pipeline est enfoui sous la terre, ce qui indique que les perturbations liées à l’enfouissement du pipeline ont vraisemblablement créé des conditions favorables à l’établissement d’arbustes. Ces résultats jouent un grand rôle dans la prévision des réactions éventuelles de la végétation de la toundra aux perturbations, ce qui est crucial en matière de prévision de l’état futur de la végétation de la toundra de l’Arctique

Retrieval of Volcanic and Man-Made Stratospheric Aerosols from Orbital Polarimetric Measurements

Stratospheric aerosols that are caused by a major volcanic eruption can serve as a valuable test of global climate models, as well as severely complicate tropospheric-aerosol monitoring from space. In either case, it is highly desirable to have accurate global information on the optical thickness, size, and composition of volcanic aerosols. We report sensitivity study results, which analyze the implications of making precise multi-angle photopolarimetric measurements in a 1.378-m spectral channel residing within a strong water-vapor absorption band. We demonstrate that, under favorable conditions, such measurements would enable near-perfect retrievals of the optical thickness, effective radius, and refractive index of stratospheric aerosols. Besides enabling accurate retrievals of volcanic aerosols, such measurements can also be used to monitor man-made particulates injected in the stratosphere for geoengineering purposes