Climate Change and Texas Water Planning: an Economic Analysis of Inter-basin Water Transfers

Panel models with random effects are used to estimate how climate influences in-stream surface water supply, municipal water demand, crop yields and irrigation water use. The results are added into TEXRIVERSIM, a state wide economic, hydrological, environmental and inter-basin water transfer (IBTs) investment model, through the objective function and hydrological constraints. A climate change related scenario analysis from the Global Circulation Models (GCMs)--Hadley, Canadian, BCCR and NCAR with SRES scenarios A1B, B1, and A2 indicates that inter-basin water transfers not only greatly relax water scarcity problems for major cities and industrial counties, but also create growth opportunity for Houston. However, while destination basins receive the benefits, source basins will experience dramatic reduction in in-stream flow and water flows to bays and estuaries. Climate change requires accelerated water development with more IBTs proving economically feasible depending on the GCMs and SRES scenarios.Climate Change, Inter-basin Water Transfers, Water Scarcity, Environmental Stream Flows, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q25, Q54, Q58,

Risk Perception and Altruistic Averting Behavior: Removing Arsenic in Drinking Water

Self protection and altruism are crucial behavioral factors in determining the effectiveness of public policies aimed to improve human health from environmental hazards. This paper examined people’s arsenic mortality risk perception in the drinking water for themselves and their children using the Bayesian learning framework. A two-stage structural model within the random utility framework was developed to model the household’s risk averting behavior with respect to arsenic-related mortality risk. The empirical results indicate that parents engage in a form of mixed altruism. Parents are willing to spend more to make a trade-off between their risk and their children’s risk.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

Water Scarcity, Climate Change, and Water Quality: Three Economic Essays

This dissertation is composed of three essays investigating three aspects of future water issues. The first essay focuses on an examination of water scarcity issues caused by rapid population growth and economic development in Texas. The second essay examines water scarcity under climate change scenarios in Texas. The third essay discusses arsenic-related water quality issues in the drinking water. An integrated economic, hydrological, and environmental model is developed for the first two essays by implicitly incorporating uncertainty about future climate, water demand from all types of water use, a spatial river flow relationship, interaction between ground and surface water, institutional regulations, and the possibilities of inter-basin water transfers (IBTs). In studying water scarcity under economic growth and population growth, we find that while some cities and counties have sufficient water, there are some other cities and counties (especially Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin) facing different degrees of water scarcity problems. In studying the climate change impact, four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESs) yield consistent results. Water scarcity becomes even more severe for cities. Texas realizes slight gains in earlier periods and a net loss beginning in 2060. This study finds that twelve IBTs, if there is no climate change, and fourteen IBTs, under the climate change scenario, will be economically feasible in 2060. These IBTs can not only greatly reduce water scarcity, but also create new growth opportunity for Houston. Water is transferred from in-stream flow in source basins. There is no significant impact on other sectors except in-stream flow and water flow out to bay. In the third essay, a two-stage structural model is developed to model household risk-averting behavior with respect to arsenic-related mortality risk in the drinking water. The empirical results suggest that risk perceptions for the parents and children are important in the decision of how much to spend on water treatment, but not in whether or not to treat water. Parents in our sample displayed mixed altruism. The information generated by this dissertation can help state agencies to manage water resources and to improve water-related human health, especially health for children, more effectively and more efficiently

The Effect of Food-Away-from-Home and Food-at-Home Expenditures on Obesity Rates: A State-Level Analysis

Using state-level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we investigate the effects of household food-away-from-home and food-at-home expenditures on overweight rates, obesity rates, and combined rates. Our random effects model estimates suggest that food-away-from-home expenditures are positively related to obesity and combined rates, while food-at-home expenditures are negatively related to obesity and combined rates. However, the magnitudes of these effects, while statistically significant, are relatively small. Both food-at-home and food-away-from-home expenditures do not significantly influence overweight rates.food-at-home expenditures, food-away-from-home expenditures, obesity, overweight, random effects model, state-level analysis, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, I18,

Economic, Hydrologic and Environmental Appraisal of Texas Inter-basin Water Transfers: Model Development and Initial Appraisal

Water scarcity is becoming a pervasive and persistent problem in Texas particularly in the drier regions containing cities like San Antonio, Austin, and Corpus Christi while growth causes emerging problems in Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston. A number of options are being considered including Inter-basin water transfers (IBTs) shifting water from surplus to deficit regions. Potential water transfers can have unforeseen or negative impacts on basin of origin, regional economies, and or on the environment including water quality. The Texas water Code mandates that water transfers should consider economic, environmental and water quality impacts (in section 11.085, (K), (F)) demanding projections of impacts on water quality, aquatic and riparian habitat in all affected basins. While there are 51 proposed Texas Inter-basin water transfers in 2006 Texas Water Plan, there is no comprehensive evaluation of or even evaluation methodology proposed for these transfers. The water models available in Texas have various limitations that affect their usefulness in evaluating IBT induced economic impacts and water quality changes. Water-related models that deal with hydrologic and environmental issues commonly focus on the quantity issues such as water supply and water flow but do not have economic or water quality dimensions (Wurbs, 2003). Models with economic considerations tend to cover only restricted areas, for example, the Edwards aquifer and Nueces, Frio and Guadalupe-Blanco basin regions (Gillig et al, 2001; Watkins Jr & McKinney, 2000). Much of the research has been localized looking at only single or a couple of basins without looking at broader statewide issues. This research is designed to build a statewide model integrating economic, hydrologic, and environment components. Such a model will be used to examine Texas water scarcity issues and socially optimal water allocation along with the effects of inter-basin water transfers. We developed an integrated economic, hydrologic, and environment model covering 21 Texas riverbasins: Colorado, Brazos-Colorado, Brazos, Brazos-San Jacinto, Canadian, Red, Sabine, Guadalupe, San Antonio, Sulphur, Cypress, Neches, Neches-Trinity, Trinity, Trinity-San Jacinto, San Jacinto, Colorado-Lavaca, Lavaca, Lavaca-Guadalupe, San Antonio-Nueces, and Nueces. The model is designed to yield information to support effective public water policy making for state agencies, water management authorities and regional water planning groups. The surface water aspects of this project are summarized in this report. Future research work will be focused on combining surface and ground water by integrating the Edwards Aquifer Groundwater and River System Simulation Model (EDSIMR)

Green House Gas Mitigation Policy, Bio-fuels and Land-use Change- a Dynamic Analysis

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program NASA-NNX09A126G

Valuing Climate Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models: The MIT IGSM

http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/reports/allWe discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. The features of the integrated global system framework that allows a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts are described with particular examples of effects on agriculture and human health. We argue that progress requires a careful understanding of the chain of physical changes—global and regional temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification and polar ice melting. We relate those changes to other physical and biological variables that help people understand risks to factors relevant to their daily lives—crop yield, food prices, premature death, flooding or drought events, land use change. Finally, we investigate how societies may adapt, or not, to these changes and how the combination of measures to adapt or to live with losses will affect the economy. Valuation and assessment of market impacts can play an important role, but we must recognize the limits of efforts to value impacts where deep uncertainty does not allow a description of the causal chain of effects that can be described, much less assigned a likelihood. A mixed approach of valuing impacts, evaluating physical and biological effects, and working to better describe uncertainties in the earth system can contribute to the social dialogue needed to achieve consensus—where it is needed—on the level and type of mitigation and adaptation actions that are required.The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and its economic component used in the analysis, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, is supported by a consortium of government, industry, and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. (For a complete list of sponsors, see: http://globalchange.mit.edu)

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to$54.5 billion over the period 2015–2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-BPA-12-H-0023, Call Order EP-B13H-00143

Prospects of Alternative Fuels for Future Onroad Transportation

The potential risks to the U.S. economy associated with a lack of transportation fuel diversity, high dependence on imports, fluctuating oil prices, and environmental concerns have been recognized for decades and have encouraged policymakers, industries and consumers to diversify energy resources utilized for transportation as well as increasing vehicle fuel efficiency. The use of biofuels in transportation has expanded rapidly, driven by federal and state incentives and requirements such as Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). However, expansion is slowing as there have been challenges in developing cost-effective means of producing advanced biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol. Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) that use fuels such as biofuels, natural gas, hydrogen, or electricity, generally with higher fuel economy than traditional fossil-fuel vehicles, have been suggested as a low-carbon alternative to further reduce the dependence on fossil-fuel-based transportation. Among these AFVs are battery electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell vehicles (FCEV), hybrid (HEV), and compressed natural gas vehicles (GasV). While there have been considerable advances in AFV technologies, they require further advancement to lower costs sufficiently to capture a significant share of the vehicle market that currently continues to be dominated by conventional fossil fuel technologies. In this study, we use a version of the Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) computable general equilibrium model with a highly disaggregated transportation sector to examine the market potential of AFVs for on-road transportation of both passengers and freight under different oil price pathways and their influence on the U.S. economy, energy markets, food prices, and the environment